Daily Papers

Electricity grid's resiliency and climate change strongly impact one another due to an array of technical and policy-related decisions that impact both. This paper introduces a physics-informed machine learning-based framework to enhance grid's resiliency. Specifically, when encountering disruptive events, this paper designs remedial control actions to prevent blackouts. The proposed Physics-Guided Reinforcement Learning (PG-RL) framework determines effective real-time remedial line-switching actions, considering their impact on power balance, system security, and grid reliability. To identify an effective blackout mitigation policy, PG-RL leverages power-flow sensitivity factors to guide the RL exploration during agent training. Comprehensive evaluations using the Grid2Op platform demonstrate that incorporating physical signals into RL significantly improves resource utilization within electric grids and achieves better blackout mitigation policies - both of which are critical in addressing climate change.

Cascading failures in power grids can lead to grid collapse, causing severe disruptions to social operations and economic activities. In certain cases, multi-stage cascading failures can occur. However, existing cascading-failure-mitigation strategies are usually single-stage-based, overlooking the complexity of the multi-stage scenario. This paper treats the multi-stage cascading failure problem as a reinforcement learning task and develops a simulation environment. The reinforcement learning agent is then trained via the deterministic policy gradient algorithm to achieve continuous actions. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed approach is validated on the IEEE 14-bus and IEEE 118-bus systems.

Recent studies have revealed that self-sustaining cascading failures in distributed systems frequently lead to widespread outages, which are challenging to contain and recover from. Existing failure detection techniques struggle to expose such failures prior to deployment, as they typically require a complex combination of specific conditions to be triggered. This challenge stems from the inherent nature of cascading failures, as they typically involve a sequence of fault propagations, each activated by distinct conditions. This paper presents CSnake, a fault injection framework to expose self-sustaining cascading failures in distributed systems. CSnake uses the novel idea of causal stitching, which causally links multiple single-fault injections in different tests to simulate complex fault propagation chains. To identify these chains, CSnake designs a counterfactual causality analysis of fault propagations - fault causality analysis (FCA): FCA compares the execution trace of a fault injection run with its corresponding profile run (i.e., same test w/o the injection) and identifies any additional faults triggered, which are considered to have a causal relationship with the injected fault. To address the large search space of fault and workload combinations, CSnake employs a three-phase allocation protocol of test budget that prioritizes faults with unique and diverse causal consequences, increasing the likelihood of uncovering conditional fault propagations. Furthermore, to avoid incorrectly connecting fault propagations from workloads with incompatible conditions, CSnake performs a local compatibility check that approximately checks the compatibility of the path constraints associated with connected fault propagations with low overhead. CSnake detected 15 bugs that cause self-sustaining cascading failures in five systems, five of which have been confirmed with two fixed.

This paper proposes a cascading failure mitigation strategy based on Reinforcement Learning (RL). The motivation of the Multi-Stage Cascading Failure (MSCF) problem and its connection with the challenge of climate change are introduced. The bottom-level corrective control of the MCSF problem is formulated based on DCOPF (Direct Current Optimal Power Flow). Then, to mitigate the MSCF issue by a high-level RL-based strategy, physics-informed reward, action, and state are devised. Besides, both shallow and deep neural network architectures are tested. Experiments on the IEEE 118-bus system by the proposed mitigation strategy demonstrate a promising performance in reducing system collapses.

Large Language Model (LLM) agents, which integrate planning, memory, reflection, and tool-use modules, have shown promise in solving complex, multi-step tasks. Yet their sophisticated architectures amplify vulnerability to cascading failures, where a single root-cause error propagates through subsequent decisions, leading to task failure. Current systems lack a framework that can comprehensively understand agent error in a modular and systemic way, and therefore fail to detect these errors accordingly. We address this gap with three contributions. First, we introduce the AgentErrorTaxonomy, a modular classification of failure modes spanning memory, reflection, planning, action, and system-level operations. Second, we construct AgentErrorBench, the first dataset of systematically annotated failure trajectories from ALFWorld, GAIA, and WebShop, grounding error analysis in real-world agent rollouts. Third, we propose AgentDebug, a debugging framework that isolates root-cause failures and provides corrective feedback, enabling agents to recover and iteratively improve. Experiments on AgentErrorBench show that AgentDebug achieves 24% higher all-correct accuracy and 17% higher step accuracy compared to the strongest baseline. Beyond detection, the targeted feedback generated by AgentDebug enables LLM agents to iteratively recover from failures, yielding up to 26% relative improvements in task success across ALFWorld, GAIA, and WebShop. These results establish principled debugging as a pathway to more reliable and adaptive LLM agents. The code and data will be available at https://github.com/ulab-uiuc/AgentDebug

Collaboration and information sharing empower Multi-Agent Systems (MAS) but also introduce a critical security risk known as Agent Cascading Injection (ACI). In such attacks, a compromised agent exploits inter-agent trust to propagate malicious instructions, causing cascading failures across the system. However, existing studies consider only limited attack strategies and simplified MAS settings, limiting their generalizability and comprehensive evaluation. To bridge this gap, we introduce ACIArena, a unified framework for evaluating the robustness of MAS. ACIArena offers systematic evaluation suites spanning multiple attack surfaces (i.e., external inputs, agent profiles, inter-agent messages) and attack objectives (i.e., instruction hijacking, task disruption, information exfiltration). Specifically, ACIArena establishes a unified specification that jointly supports MAS construction and attack-defense modules. It covers six widely used MAS implementations and provides a benchmark of 1,356 test cases for systematically evaluating MAS robustness. Our benchmarking results show that evaluating MAS robustness solely through topology is insufficient; robust MAS require deliberate role design and controlled interaction patterns. Moreover, defenses developed in simplified environments often fail to transfer to real-world settings; narrowly scoped defenses may even introduce new vulnerabilities. ACIArena aims to provide a solid foundation for advancing deeper exploration of MAS design principles.

3D fragment reassembly aims to recover the rigid poses of unordered fragment point clouds or meshes in a common object coordinate system to reconstruct the complete shape. The problem becomes particularly challenging as the number of fragments grows, since the target shape is unknown and fragments provide weak semantic cues. Existing end-to-end approaches are prone to cascading failures due to unreliable contact reasoning, most notably inaccurate fragment adjacencies. To address this, we propose Structure-Aware Reassembly (SARe), a generative framework with SARe-Gen for Euclidean-space assembly generation and SARe-Refine for inference-time refinement, with explicit contact modeling. SARe-Gen jointly predicts fracture-surface token probabilities and an inter-fragment contact graph to localize contact regions and infer candidate adjacencies. It adopts a query-point-based conditioning scheme and extracts aligned local geometric tokens at query locations from a frozen geometry encoder, yielding queryable structural representations without additional structural pretraining. We further introduce an inference-time refinement stage, SARe-Refine. By verifying candidate contact edges with geometric-consistency checks, it selects reliable substructures and resamples the remaining uncertain regions while keeping verified parts fixed, leading to more stable and consistent assemblies in the many-fragment regime. We evaluate SARe across three settings, including synthetic fractures, simulated fractures from scanned real objects, and real physically fractured scans. The results demonstrate state-of-the-art performance, with more graceful degradation and higher success rates as the fragment count increases in challenging large-scale reassembly.

While diffusion models generate high-fidelity video clips, transforming them into coherent storytelling engines remains challenging. Current agentic pipelines automate this via chained modules but suffer from semantic drift and cascading failures due to independent, handcrafted prompting. We present Co-Director, a hierarchical multi-agent framework formalizing video storytelling as a global optimization problem. To ensure semantic coherence, we introduce hierarchical parameterization: a multi-armed bandit globally identifies promising creative directions, while a local multimodal self-refinement loop mitigates identity drift and ensures sequence-level consistency. This balances the exploration of novel narrative strategies with the exploitation of effective creative configurations. For evaluation, we introduce GenAD-Bench, a 400-scenario dataset of fictional products for personalized advertising. Experiments demonstrate that Co-Director significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, offering a principled approach that seamlessly generalizes to broader cinematic narratives. Project Page: https://co-director-agent.github.io/

Large language model agents increasingly operate in long-horizon environments where early mistakes can trigger cascading failures and trap agents in dead-end trajectories. Agents must therefore be able to proactively recover from such states and turn their exploratory experience into guidance for subsequent decisions. We introduce ReTRAIL, a framework that enables agents to rewind the environment to earlier states while preserving valid progress and carrying forward knowledge learned from abandoned exploration. The environment state moves backward while the agent's knowledge continues to move forward. ReTRAIL trains a shared policy with two complementary signals: State-Anchored GRPO compares alternative continuations from revisited states to improve execution, while a branch-advancement reward guides reflection through the progress of subsequent exploration. Experiments across four interactive benchmark MineSweeper, Sokoban, ALFWorld and ScienceWorld show that simply adding a rewind primitive provides limited benefit and can even degrade performance. In contrast, ReTRAIL enables agents to rewind from unproductive states and use insights from abandoned branches to guide subsequent exploration. These results demonstrate the value of coupling environment rewinding with experience reuse within an ongoing task for long-horizon task solving. The code is available at https://github.com/whi497/ReTRAIL.

Recent multimodal large language models have shown great promise in clinical image reasoning, but existing post-training pipelines remain predominantly outcome-centric, relying on final answer correctness or sequence-level preferences. This suffers from sparse credit assignment, making it difficult to optimize the reasoning process essential for clinical applications. Our analysis reveals that cascading errors from early-stage reasoning failures are a leading cause of incorrect predictions in medical visual question answering (VQA) benchmarks. Motivated by this, we propose Medical Reasoning-aware Policy Optimization (MRPO), an RL algorithm that incorporates step-wise process rewards. When the final answer is incorrect, MRPO assigns exponentially larger penalties to tokens in earlier invalid reasoning steps, breaking failure cascades without compromising successful paths. Across three multimodal LLM backbones, MRPO consistently outperforms standard GRPO and a recent RL baseline, and on Qwen3-VL-8B-Instruct even surpasses substantially larger medical MLLMs such as HuatuoGPT-Vision-34B by 2.79 points. Moreover, MRPO reduces early-stage reasoning failures from 64.0% to 13.0%, showing that targeted mitigation of cascading failures improves both reasoning quality and final answer accuracy. Our code is available at https://github.com/dmis-lab/MRPO

While vision-language-action models have demonstrated impressive zero-shot manipulation capabilities, they remain fundamentally black box policies that are difficult to interpret, adapt, or correct when they inevitably fail. In this work, we propose ARCHITECT, a framework that treats robot policy acquisition as an interactive program synthesis task. ARCHITECT leverages the reasoning capabilities of LLM coding agents to synthesize modular robot programs that utilize a suite of perception and control tools. Unlike end-to-end models where distribution shift leads to unpredictable, cascading failures, our modular architecture allows users to isolate failures and localize feedback at the level of abstraction required. We introduce an iterative process where a human supervisor provides natural language corrections to steer the policy. These corrections are grounded in the policy code by program execution traces and distilled into a persistent skill library, a form of long-term in-context learning which enables the agent to accumulate a repertoire of reusable, interpretable behaviors. In a benchmark evaluation on a Franka Panda robot, ARCHITECT outperforms state-of-the-art VLA models and program synthesis baselines on complex, long-horizon tasks, including articulated object manipulation and cloth folding. Our results demonstrate that the synthesized skill library enables the system to transfer to novel tasks with decreasing human intervention, providing a steerable and data-efficient alternative to black-box robot learning. Website: https://robo-architect.github.io/

Modern long-context large language models (LLMs) perform well on synthetic "needle-in-a-haystack" (NIAH) benchmarks, but such tests overlook how noisy contexts arise from biased retrieval and agentic workflows. We argue that haystack engineering is necessary to construct noisy long contexts that faithfully capture key real-world factors -- distraction from heterogeneous biased retrievers and cascading errors in agentic workflows -- to test models' long-context robustness. We instantiate it through HaystackCraft, a new NIAH benchmark built on the full English Wikipedia hyperlink network with multi-hop questions. HaystackCraft evaluates how heterogeneous retrieval strategies (e.g., sparse, dense, hybrid, and graph-based) affect distractor composition, haystack ordering, and downstream LLM performance. HaystackCraft further extends NIAH to dynamic, LLM-dependent settings that simulate agentic operations, where models refine queries, reflect on their past reasonings, and decide when to stop. Experiments with 15 long-context models show that (1) while stronger dense retrievers can introduce more challenging distractors, graph-based reranking simultaneously improves retrieval effectiveness and mitigates more harmful distractors; (2) in agentic tests, even advanced models like Gemini 2.5 Pro and GPT-5 suffer cascading failures from self-generated distractors or struggle to perform early stops. These results highlight persistent challenges in agentic long-context reasoning and establish HaystackCraft as a valuable testbed for future progress.

Multimodal agents for computer use rely exclusively on primitive actions (click, type, scroll) that require accurate visual grounding and lengthy execution chains, leading to cascading failures and performance bottlenecks. While other agents leverage rich programmatic interfaces (APIs, MCP servers, tools), computer-use agents (CUAs) remain isolated from these capabilities. We present UltraCUA, a foundation model that bridges this gap through hybrid action -- seamlessly integrating GUI primitives with high-level programmatic tool calls. To achieve this, our approach comprises four key components: (1) an automated pipeline that scales programmatic tools from software documentation, open-source repositories, and code generation; (2) a synthetic data engine producing over 17,000 verifiable tasks spanning real-world computer-use scenarios; (3) a large-scale high-quality hybrid action trajectory collection with both low-level GUI actions and high-level programmatic tool calls; and (4) a two-stage training pipeline combining supervised fine-tuning with online reinforcement learning, enabling strategic alternation between low-level and high-level actions. Experiments with our 7B and 32B models demonstrate substantial improvements over state-of-the-art agents. On OSWorld, UltraCUA models achieve an average 22% relative improvement over base models, while being 11% faster in terms of steps. Out-of-domain evaluation on WindowsAgentArena shows our model reaches 21.7% success rate, outperforming baselines trained on Windows data. The hybrid action mechanism proves critical, reducing error propagation while maintaining execution efficiency.

Open-vocabulary mobile manipulation (OVMM) requires robots to follow language instructions, navigate, and manipulate while updating their world representation under dynamic environmental changes. However, most prior approaches update their world representation only at discrete update points such as navigation targets, waypoints, or the end of an action step, leaving robots blind between updates and causing cascading failures: overlooked objects, late error detection, and delayed replanning. To address this limitation, we propose BINDER (Bridging INstant and DEliberative Reasoning), a dual process framework that decouples strategic planning from continuous environment monitoring. Specifically, BINDER integrates a Deliberative Response Module (DRM, a multimodal LLM for task planning) with an Instant Response Module (IRM, a VideoLLM for continuous monitoring). The two modules play complementary roles: the DRM performs strategic planning with structured 3D scene updates and guides what the IRM attends to, while the IRM analyzes video streams to update memory, correct ongoing actions, and trigger replanning when necessary. Through this bidirectional coordination, the modules address the trade off between maintaining awareness and avoiding costly updates, enabling robust adaptation under dynamic conditions. Evaluated in three real world environments with dynamic object placement, BINDER achieves substantially higher success and efficiency than SoTA baselines, demonstrating its effectiveness for real world deployment.

Agentic AI marks an important transition from single-step generative models to systems capable of reasoning, planning, acting, and adapting over long-lasting tasks. By integrating memory, tool use, and iterative decision cycles, these systems enable continuous, autonomous workflows in real-world environments. This survey examines the implications of agentic AI for cybersecurity. On the defensive side, agentic capabilities enable continuous monitoring, autonomous incident response, adaptive threat hunting, and fraud detection at scale. Conversely, the same properties amplify adversarial power by accelerating reconnaissance, exploitation, coordination, and social-engineering attacks. These dual-use dynamics expose fundamental gaps in existing governance, assurance, and accountability mechanisms, which were largely designed for non-autonomous and short-lived AI systems. To address these challenges, we survey emerging threat models, security frameworks, and evaluation pipelines tailored to agentic systems, and analyze systemic risks including agent collusion, cascading failures, oversight evasion, and memory poisoning. Finally, we present three representative use-case implementations that illustrate how agentic AI behaves in practical cybersecurity workflows, and how design choices shape reliability, safety, and operational effectiveness.

Benchmarks measure whether a model is correct. They do not measure whether a model is reliable. This distinction is largely academic for single-shot inference, but becomes critical for agentic AI systems, where a single rephrased prompt can trigger cascading failures in multi-step execution. Yet this form of instability is not captured by existing evaluations. Hallucinations live in variance: they arise when semantically equivalent prompts activate inconsistent internal pathways, producing divergent outputs. Consistent but incorrect outputs reflect bias or missing knowledge; confident guessing reflects calibration failure. Neither constitutes hallucination under this definition. When error is variance-dominated, reducing redundant pathways improves reliability without adding knowledge. We formalize this through Semantic Stability (SS), measured via Paraphrase Consistency (PC@k): generate k paraphrases, greedy decode each, compute mode agreement. SS is a diagnostic for variance-driven unreliability, not a method for improving correctness. We show that a dense Qwen3-0.6B agrees with itself only 23.8% of the time; at 32% sparsity, agreement jumps to 55.9%. A phase diagram reveals the sweet spot where variance reduction outpaces bias accumulation, and regimes where stability collapses onto wrong answers.

Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) is increasingly deployed in safety-critical domains, yet methods for interpretable failure detection and attribution remain underdeveloped. We introduce a two-stage gradient-based framework that provides interpretable diagnostics for three critical failure analysis tasks: (1) detecting the true initial failure source (Patient-0); (2) validating why non-attacked agents may be flagged first due to domino effects; and (3) tracing how failures propagate through learned coordination pathways. Stage 1 performs interpretable per-agent failure detection via Taylor-remainder analysis of policy-gradient costs, declaring an initial Patient-0 candidate at the first threshold crossing. Stage 2 provides validation through geometric analysis of critic derivatives-first-order sensitivity and directional second-order curvature aggregated over causal windows to construct interpretable contagion graphs. This approach explains "downstream-first" detection anomalies by revealing pathways that amplify upstream deviations. Evaluated across 500 episodes in Simple Spread (3 and 5 agents) and 100 episodes in StarCraft II using MADDPG and HATRPO, our method achieves 88.2-99.4% Patient-0 detection accuracy while providing interpretable geometric evidence for detection decisions. By moving beyond black-box detection to interpretable gradient-level forensics, this framework offers practical tools for diagnosing cascading failures in safety-critical MARL systems.

Globalization and multiculturalism continue to produce increasingly diverse speech varieties. Yet current spoken dialogue systems frequently fail on under-represented dialects and accents, often misidentifying the input language and causing cascading failures in downstream dialogue tasks. Addressing this dialectal variance under low-resource constraints remains an open challenge, as standard fine-tuning is computationally expensive and prone to overfitting on high-dimensional speech data. We propose Convex Language Detection (CLD), a novel framework that integrates theoretically grounded convex optimization techniques into the spoken dialogue systems pipeline. Our method is efficiently implemented via multi-GPU Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers (ADMM) in JAX, thus providing global optimality guarantees and fast training in polynomial time. Theoretically, we prove that our convex objective induces certified margin stability and provide guarantees against feature perturbations. Empirically, we demonstrate sample efficiency and robustness to input dialectical variation, achieving 97-98% accuracy in challenging low-resource regimes. Our open-source package is available at https://pypi.org/project/jaxcld/

The growing ability of large language models and vision language models to jointly interpret and reason over images and text is reshaping medical agents, moving them from task specific predictors toward autonomous systems that perceive, reason, plan, remember, and act in clinical environments. This work departs from the capability first perspective of existing literature and instead begins from clinical deployment, asking what tasks, contamination resistant benchmarks, and interactive training environments are required before medical agents can be trusted in practice. Medical agents are formalized as sequential decision making systems under partial observability, together with a three level autonomy taxonomy spanning assisted, cooperative, and fully autonomous operation. The field is organized along a unified scaling spine consisting of framework scaling, capability scaling, and environment scaling. Within this framework, clinical environment scaling, the integration of tools, data, and clinical gyms, is identified as the most actionable yet underexplored direction for agents operating in PACS, EHR, and FHIR ecosystems. Clinical self evolution, where agents improve through interaction with their environments rather than parameter scaling alone, is further positioned as a key research frontier, drawing insights from self improving agents, agent gyms, and test time compute scaling. Applications across radiology, pathology, ophthalmology, and hospital workflows are examined together with deployment challenges including hallucination, cascading failures, and fairness. By consolidating more than 300 references, with particular emphasis on advances from 2025 to 2026, this work provides a roadmap toward trustworthy, self improving medical imaging systems for real clinical practice.

While progress in GUI agents has been largely driven by industrial-scale training, ungrounded hallucinations often trigger cascading failures in real-world deployments.Unlike general VLM domains, the GUI agent field lacks a hallucination-focused suite for fine-grained diagnosis, reliable evaluation, and targeted mitigation.To bridge this gap, we introduce HalluClear, a comprehensive suite for hallucination mitigation in GUI agents as a complement to computation-intensive scaling. HalluClear comprises: (1) a GUI-specific hallucination taxonomy derived from empirical failure analysis; (2) a calibrated three-stage evaluation workflow which enhances VLM-as-a-judge reliability via expert-annotated benchmarking and ensemble credibility estimation; and (3) a mitigation scheme based on closed-loop structured reasoning, enabling lightweight continual post-training with cold-start initialization for both generalist and GUI-specialist agents. Experiments across representative agents and public benchmarks demonstrate that post-training on only 9K samples within our suite can significantly reduce hallucinations, thereby improving grounding and action fidelity, offering a compute-efficient pathway to robust GUI automation.

General-purpose robots must master long-horizon manipulation, defined as tasks involving multiple kinematic structure changes (e.g., attaching or detaching objects) in unstructured environments. While Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models offer the potential to master diverse atomic skills, they struggle with the combinatorial complexity of sequencing them and are prone to cascading failures due to environmental sensitivity. To address these challenges, we propose LiLo-VLA (Linked Local VLA), a modular framework capable of zero-shot generalization to novel long-horizon tasks without ever being trained on them. Our approach decouples transport from interaction: a Reaching Module handles global motion, while an Interaction Module employs an object-centric VLA to process isolated objects of interest, ensuring robustness against irrelevant visual features and invariance to spatial configurations. Crucially, this modularity facilitates robust failure recovery through dynamic replanning and skill reuse, effectively mitigating the cascading errors common in end-to-end approaches. We introduce a 21-task simulation benchmark consisting of two challenging suites: LIBERO-Long++ and Ultra-Long. In these simulations, LiLo-VLA achieves a 69% average success rate, outperforming Pi0.5 by 41% and OpenVLA-OFT by 67%. Furthermore, real-world evaluations across 8 long-horizon tasks demonstrate an average success rate of 85%. Project page: https://yy-gx.github.io/LiLo-VLA/.

Chemical reasoning usually involves complex, multi-step processes that demand precise calculations, where even minor errors can lead to cascading failures. Furthermore, large language models (LLMs) encounter difficulties handling domain-specific formulas, executing reasoning steps accurately, and integrating code effectively when tackling chemical reasoning tasks. To address these challenges, we present ChemAgent, a novel framework designed to improve the performance of LLMs through a dynamic, self-updating library. This library is developed by decomposing chemical tasks into sub-tasks and compiling these sub-tasks into a structured collection that can be referenced for future queries. Then, when presented with a new problem, ChemAgent retrieves and refines pertinent information from the library, which we call memory, facilitating effective task decomposition and the generation of solutions. Our method designs three types of memory and a library-enhanced reasoning component, enabling LLMs to improve over time through experience. Experimental results on four chemical reasoning datasets from SciBench demonstrate that ChemAgent achieves performance gains of up to 46% (GPT-4), significantly outperforming existing methods. Our findings suggest substantial potential for future applications, including tasks such as drug discovery and materials science. Our code can be found at https://github.com/gersteinlab/chemagent

Existing agent benchmarks mainly evaluate final task success or tool-call correctness, providing limited insight into whether agents can reliably diagnose and recover from intermediate execution failures. This limitation becomes particularly critical in multi-turn parallel tool-use scenarios, where errors may propagate across dependent branches and trigger cascading failures. We introduce ParaRecover, a process-level benchmark for evaluating error localization and recovery in multi-turn parallel tool-use agents. Built upon a fine-grained taxonomy of 14 error types covering planning dependencies, tool selection, and argument matching, the benchmark comprises 10,626 instances spanning two difficulty levels. To enable finegrained, process-oriented evaluation, we further propose the SDE rubric, which measures structural integrity, diagnostic reasoning, and evolutionary strategy during agent execution.Experiments across more than ten mainstream LLMs reveal that even state-of-the-art models still struggle with multi-turn error propagation,implicit tool-use failures, and precise replanning. Moreover, we demonstrate that the SDE rubric provides effective supervision signals for improving agents' reflective recovery capabilities. Our data and code are available at https://github.com/gbw206/ParaRecover.

Deep search has become a crucial capability for frontier multimodal agents, enabling models to solve complex questions through active search, evidence verification, and multi-step reasoning. Despite rapid progress, top-tier multimodal search agents remain difficult to reproduce, largely due to the absence of open high-quality training data, transparent trajectory synthesis pipelines, or detailed training recipes. To this end, we introduce OpenSearch-VL, a fully open-source recipe for training frontier multimodal deep search agents with agentic reinforcement learning. First, we curated a dedicated pipeline to construct high-quality training data through Wikipedia path sampling, fuzzy entity rewriting, and source-anchor visual grounding, which jointly reduce shortcuts and one-step retrieval collapse. Based on this pipeline, we curate two training datasets, SearchVL-SFT-36k for SFT and SearchVL-RL-8k for RL. Besides, we design a diverse tool environment that unifies text search, image search, OCR, cropping, sharpening, super-resolution, and perspective correction, enabling agents to combine active perception with external knowledge acquisition. Finally, we propose a multi-turn fatal-aware GRPO training algorithm that handles cascading tool failures by masking post-failure tokens while preserving useful pre-failure reasoning through one-sided advantage clamping. Built on this recipe, OpenSearch-VL delivers substantial performance gains, with over 10-point average improvements across seven benchmarks, and achieves results comparable to proprietary commercial models on several tasks. We will release all data, code, and models to support open research on multimodal deep search agents.

Large vision-language models have significantly advanced GUI agents, enabling executable interaction across web, mobile, and desktop interfaces. Yet these gains largely rely on a forgiving region-tolerant paradigm, where many nearby pixels inside the same component remain valid. Precise geometric construction breaks this assumption: actions must land on points in continuous canvas space rather than tolerant regions. Because geometric primitives carry ontological dependencies, a local coordinate error can induce cascading topological failures that distort downstream objects and invalidate the final construction. We identify this regime as precision-sensitive GUI tasks, requiring point-level accuracy, geometry-aware verification, and robustness to dependency-driven error propagation. To benchmark it, we introduce PAGE Bench, with 4,906 problems and over 224K process-supervised, pixel-level GUI actions. We further propose PAGER, a topology-aware agent that decomposes construction into dependency-structured planning and pixel-level execution. Pixel-grounded supervised tuning establishes executable action grammar, while precision-aligned reinforcement learning mitigates rollout-induced exposure bias through state-conditioned geometric feedback. Experiments reveal a pronounced Semantic-Execution Gap: general multimodal models can exceed 88% action type accuracy yet remain below 6% task success. PAGER closes this gap, delivering 4.1x higher task success than the strongest evaluated general baseline and raising step success rate from below 9% for GUI-specialized agents to over 62%, establishing a new state of the art for point-precise GUI control.

Spatial intelligence unfolds through a perception-action loop: agents act to acquire observations, and reason about how observations vary as a function of action. Rather than passively processing what is seen, they actively uncover what is unseen - occluded structure, dynamics, containment, and functionality that cannot be resolved from passive sensing alone. We move beyond prior formulations of spatial intelligence that assume oracle observations by recasting the observer as an actor. We introduce ESI-BENCH, a comprehensive benchmark for embodied spatial intelligence spanning 10 task categories and 29 subcategories built on OmniGibson, grounded in Spelke's core knowledge systems. Agents must decide what abilities to deploy - perception, locomotion, and manipulation - and how to sequence them to actively accumulate task-relevant evidence. We conduct extensive experiments on state-of-the-art MLLMs and find that active exploration substantially outperforms passive counterparts, with agents spontaneously discovering emergent spatial strategies without explicit instructions, while random multi-view often adds noise rather than signal despite consuming far more images. Most failures stem not from weak perception but from action blindness: poor action choices lead to poor observations, which in turn drive cascading errors. While explicit 3D grounding stabilizes reasoning on depth-sensitive tasks, imperfect 3D representation proves more harmful than 2D baselines by distorting spatial relations. Human studies further reveal that unlike humans who seek falsifying viewpoints and revise beliefs under contradiction, models commit prematurely with high confidence regardless of evidence quality, exposing a metacognitive gap that neither better perception nor more embodied interaction alone can close.

Reading order inference remains a critical bottleneck in the digitization of complex historical manuscripts, where pages contain multiple spatially interleaved reading streams, the canonical example being the Glossa Ordinaria layout, in which a central text is surrounded by commentaries that wrap around it in non-rectangular, non-convex regions. We present a training-free, graph-based framework: each OCR text line becomes a node in a directed candidate-transition graph, edges are scored by a weighted additive ensemble of two lightweight language-model signals (causal language model conditional likelihood and BERT next-sentence prediction, NSP; a third sentence-embedding signal was evaluated but did not improve reading order), and the global reading order is recovered as a degree-constrained directed path cover. To avoid the cascading "edge-theft" failures of greedy edge selection, we propose a max-regret inference rule that prioritizes commitments with high opportunity cost. We evaluate on synthetic Glossa Ordinaria grid layouts, on 23 ALTO page geometries (10 historical source pages plus mirrored and flipped variants), and on a 140-page multi-column English subset of OmniDocBench, comparing our method against the canonical recursive XY-cut (PaddleOCR PP-StructureV3) and two LayoutReader variants (layout-only and text+layout) on identical inputs. On wrap-around Glossa layouts our method recovers 95% of ground-truth successor edges on average vs. XY-cut's 50%; on the OmniDocBench multi-column subset it reaches 88% macro edge accuracy versus XY-cut's 75% and LayoutReader's 25%. The LayoutReader baselines transfer poorly due to a word-level vs. line-level granularity mismatch. We additionally verify mirror-invariance under horizontal and vertical page reflections: Our method changes by less than 1 percentage point, classical XY-cut by 2 points, and LayoutReader-T by up to 8 points.

Diffusion-based talking head generation has achieved remarkable visual quality, yet scaling it to long-term videos remains challenging. The widely adopted chunk-wise paradigm introduces two fundamental failures: (1) temporal-spatial misalignment between static identity references and dynamic audio streams, and (2) cascading identity drift propagated through self-generated continuity references across chunks. To address both issues, we propose AsymTalker, a novel diffusion-based talking head generation method comprising Temporal Reference Encoding (TRE) and Asymmetric Knowledge Distillation (AKD). First, TRE mitigates temporal-spatial misalignment by transforming the static identity image into a temporally coherent latent representation through encoding of a temporally replicated pseudo-video, without introducing additional parameters. Second, AKD resolves the inherent conditioning dilemma in chunk-wise training: using ground-truth references causes train-inference mismatch, while self-generated references entangle supervision with identity drift. Our asymmetric design circumvents this by anchoring the teacher model with ground-truth continuity references to provide drift-free, chunk-level supervision, thereby avoiding the teacher bottleneck. Meanwhile, the student model learns under inference-aligned conditions, conditioned only on self-generated references, and is trained via distribution matching to preserve identity over long horizons. Extensive experiments show AsymTalker achieves state-of-the-art results on HDTF and VFHQ. It guarantees high-fidelity, identity-consistent synthesis over 600-second videos and reaches a real-time inference speed of 66 FPS.

As multi-agent AI systems are increasingly deployed in real-world settings - from automated customer support to DevOps remediation - failures become harder to diagnose due to cascading effects, hidden dependencies, and long execution traces. We present AgentTrace, a lightweight causal tracing framework for post-hoc failure diagnosis in deployed multi-agent workflows. AgentTrace reconstructs causal graphs from execution logs, traces backward from error manifestations, and ranks candidate root causes using interpretable structural and positional signals - without requiring LLM inference at debugging time. Across a diverse benchmark of multi-agent failure scenarios designed to reflect common deployment patterns, AgentTrace localizes root causes with high accuracy and sub-second latency, significantly outperforming both heuristic and LLM-based baselines. Our results suggest that causal tracing provides a practical foundation for improving the reliability and trustworthiness of agentic systems in the wild.

Verifying the success of computer use agent (CUA) trajectories is a critical challenge: without reliable verification, neither evaluation nor training signal can be trusted. In this paper, we present lessons learned from building a best-in-class verifier for web tasks we call the Universal Verifier. We design the Universal Verifier around four key principles: 1) constructing rubrics with meaningful, non-overlapping criteria to reduce noise; 2) separating process and outcome rewards that yield complementary signals, capturing cases where an agent follows the right steps but gets blocked or succeeds through an unexpected path; 3) distinguishing between controllable and uncontrollable failures scored via a cascading-error-free strategy for finer-grained failure understanding; and 4) a divide-and-conquer context management scheme that attends to all screenshots in a trajectory, improving reliability on longer task horizons. We validate these findings on CUAVerifierBench, a new set of CUA trajectories with both process and outcome human labels, showing that our Universal Verifier agrees with humans as often as humans agree with each other. We report a reduction in false positive rates to near zero compared to baselines like WebVoyager (geq 45\%) and WebJudge (geq 22\%). We emphasize that these gains stem from the cumulative effect of the design choices above. We also find that an auto-research agent achieves 70\% of expert quality in 5\% of the time, but fails to discover all strategies required to replicate the Universal Verifier. We open-source our Universal Verifier system along with CUAVerifierBench; available at https://github.com/microsoft/fara.

Low-bit post-training quantization (PTQ) is a practical route to deploy reasoning-capable LLMs under tight memory and latency budgets, yet it can markedly impair mathematical reasoning (drops up to 69.81% in our harder settings). We address two deployment-critical questions with process-level precision: Where along a step-structured solution does degradation first arise? How to mitigate it while staying in the low-bit regime? Across widely used PTQ methods (AWQ, GPTQ, SmoothQuant), open-source model families (Qwen, LLaMA; 0.5--7B), and math reasoning benchmarks (GSM8K, MATH, AIME), we perform format-aligned chain-of-thought with step-aligned attribution and uncover two robust regularities: (i) PTQ disproportionately elevates method and execution errors relative to high-level conceptual mistakes; and (ii) failures emerge early, with the first vulnerable step flipping and cascading to the final answer. These regularities suggest a general intervention principle: restore local token-level margins exactly at the earliest failure frontier. We instantiate this principle as a lightweight measurerightarrowlocaterightarrowrestore loop that operates directly on the quantized model: detect the first faulty step, construct our "Silver Bullet" datasets, and apply small-scale supervised/preference tuning. In our settings, as few as 332 curated examples and 3--5 minutes of compute on a single GPU recover 4-bit weight math reasoning toward the full-precision baseline while preserving PTQ efficiency. Our framework is quantizer- and architecture-agnostic within the evaluated regimes, and turns low-bit degradation from a global accuracy problem into a local, reproducible process intervention.

GUI agents, powered by large foundation models, can interact with digital interfaces, enabling various applications in web automation, mobile navigation, and software testing. However, their increasing autonomy has raised critical concerns about their security, privacy, and safety. This survey examines the trustworthiness of GUI agents in five critical dimensions: security vulnerabilities, reliability in dynamic environments, transparency and explainability, ethical considerations, and evaluation methodologies. We also identify major challenges such as vulnerability to adversarial attacks, cascading failure modes in sequential decision-making, and a lack of realistic evaluation benchmarks. These issues not only hinder real-world deployment but also call for comprehensive mitigation strategies beyond task success. As GUI agents become more widespread, establishing robust safety standards and responsible development practices is essential. This survey provides a foundation for advancing trustworthy GUI agents through systematic understanding and future research.

This paper describes our submission for the End-to-end Multi-domain Task Completion Dialog shared task at the 9th Dialog System Technology Challenge (DSTC-9). Participants in the shared task build an end-to-end task completion dialog system which is evaluated by human evaluation and a user simulator based automatic evaluation. Different from traditional pipelined approaches where modules are optimized individually and suffer from cascading failure, we propose an end-to-end dialog system that 1) uses Generative Pretraining 2 (GPT-2) as the backbone to jointly solve Natural Language Understanding, Dialog State Tracking, and Natural Language Generation tasks, 2) adopts Domain and Task Adaptive Pretraining to tailor GPT-2 to the dialog domain before finetuning, 3) utilizes heuristic pre/post-processing rules that greatly simplify the prediction tasks and improve generalizability, and 4) equips a fault tolerance module to correct errors and inappropriate responses. Our proposed method significantly outperforms baselines and ties for first place in the official evaluation. We make our source code publicly available.

Existing multi-agent frameworks allow each agent to simultaneously plan, execute, and evaluate its own actions -- a structural deficiency we term the "Logic Monopoly." Empirical evidence quantifies the resulting "Reliability Gap": 84.30% average attack success rates across ten deployment scenarios, 31.4% emergent deceptive behavior without explicit reward signals, and cascading failure modes rooted in six structural bottlenecks. The remedy is not better alignment of individual models but a social contract for agents: institutional infrastructure that enforces a constitutional Separation of Power. This paper introduces the Agent Enterprise for Enterprise (AE4E) paradigm -- agents as autonomous, legally identifiable business entities within a functionalist social system -- with a contract-centric SoP model trifurcating authority into Legislation, Execution, and Adjudication branches. The paradigm is operationalized through the NetX Enterprise Framework (NEF): governance hubs, TEE-backed compute enclaves, privacy-preserving data bridges, and an Agent-Native blockchain substrate. The Agent Enterprise Economy scales across four deployment tiers from private enclaves to a global Web of Services. The Agentic Social Layer, grounded in Parsons' AGIL framework, provides institutional infrastructure via sixty-plus named Institutional AE4Es. 143 pages, 173 references, eight specialized smart contracts.

Cascading bandits have gained popularity in recent years due to their applicability to recommendation systems and online advertising. In the cascading bandit model, at each timestep, an agent recommends an ordered subset of items (called an item list) from a pool of items, each associated with an unknown attraction probability. Then, the user examines the list, and clicks the first attractive item (if any), and after that, the agent receives a reward. The goal of the agent is to maximize the expected cumulative reward. However, the prior literature on cascading bandits ignores the influences of user states (e.g., historical behaviors) on recommendations and the change of states as the session proceeds. Motivated by this fact, we propose a generalized cascading RL framework, which considers the impact of user states and state transition into decisions. In cascading RL, we need to select items not only with large attraction probabilities but also leading to good successor states. This imposes a huge computational challenge due to the combinatorial action space. To tackle this challenge, we delve into the properties of value functions, and design an oracle BestPerm to efficiently find the optimal item list. Equipped with BestPerm, we develop two algorithms CascadingVI and CascadingBPI, which are both computationally-efficient and sample-efficient, and provide near-optimal regret and sample complexity guarantees. Furthermore, we present experiments to show the improved computational and sample efficiencies of our algorithms compared to straightforward adaptations of existing RL algorithms in practice.

Time series forecasting (TSF) increasingly drives decisions in transportation, energy, finance, healthcare, and infrastructure, yet current evaluation remains overly narrow: standard benchmarks reward low held-out error, while robustness studies typically reduce failure to Gaussian noise, random masking, or bounded adversarial perturbations. This obscures the real failure modes of deployed forecasting systems. Input-side anomalies are not merely noisier inputs: they often reflect structured events that alter temporal dynamics, break cross-variable dependencies, induce regime shifts, or propagate from faulty sensors to downstream decisions. These semantic, causal, and system-level failures cannot be faithfully captured by i.i.d. perturbations alone. The rise of TSF foundation models makes this evaluation gap more urgent, as unauditable pretraining corpora make held-out generalization increasingly unreliable. We therefore advocate scenario-grounded stress testing. Each test instance should include historical inputs and future targets, together with a semantic scenario, an explicit failure operator, and a measurable difficulty level. This shift makes evaluation interpretable, attributable, and deployment-relevant and friendly, enabling the community to ask not only which model is accurate, but under what conditions it fails and why.

In Agentic AI, Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly used in the orchestration layer to coordinate multiple agents and to interact with external services, retrieval components, and shared memory. In this setting, failures are not limited to incorrect final outputs. They also arise from long-horizon interaction, stochastic decisions, and external side effects (such as API calls, database writes, and message sends). Common failures include non-termination, role drift, propagation of unsupported claims, and attacks via untrusted context or external channels. This paper presents an assurance framework for such Agentic AI systems. Executions are instrumented as Message-Action Traces (MAT) with explicit step and trace contracts. Contracts provide machine-checkable verdicts, localize the first violating step, and support deterministic replay. The framework includes stress testing, formulated as a budgeted counterexample search over bounded perturbations. It also supports structured fault injection at service, retrieval, and memory boundaries to assess containment under realistic operational faults and degraded conditions. Finally, governance is treated as a runtime component, enforcing per-agent capability limits and action mediation (allow, rewrite, block) at the language-to-action boundary. To support comparative evaluations across stochastic seeds, models, and orchestration configurations, the paper defines trace-based metrics for task success, termination reliability, contract compliance, factuality indicators, containment rate, and governance outcome distributions. More broadly, the framework is intended as a common abstraction to support testing and evaluation of multi-agent LLM systems, and to facilitate reproducible comparison across orchestration designs and configurations.

The availability of a wide range of large language models (LLMs) embedded in various agentic systems has significantly increased the potential of model selection strategies to improve the cost-performance tradeoff. Existing strategies involve either routing, where a single model is chosen per query, or cascading, which sequentially runs increasingly larger models until a satisfactory answer is found. However, current approaches face three key limitations: they (1) lack formal proofs of optimality, (2) fail to identify the conditions under which these strategies are most effective to improve the cost-performance tradeoff, and (3) are unable to combine both paradigms for further improvements. To address these issues, we first derive a novel optimal strategy for cascading and prove the optimality of an existing routing strategy. Further, we propose cascade routing, a unified framework that integrates routing and cascading into a theoretically optimal strategy. Through our analysis, we identify good quality estimators as the critical factor for the success of model selection paradigms. Finally, in our experiments, we show that cascade routing consistently outperforms the individual approaches by a large margin and we analyze quality estimators to determine when routing and/or cascading are useful paradigms for model selection.

Industrial disruption replanning demands multi-agent coordination under strict latency and communication budgets, where disruptions propagate through tightly coupled physical dependencies and rapidly invalidate baseline schedules and commitments. Existing coordination schemes often treat communication as either effectively free (broadcast-style escalation) or fixed in advance (hand-tuned neighborhoods), both of which are brittle once the disruption footprint extends beyond a local region. We present \CASCADE, a budgeted replanning mechanism that makes communication scope explicit and auditable rather than fixed or implicit. Each agent maintains an explicit knowledge base, solves role-conditioned local decision problems to revise commitments, and coordinates through lightweight contract primitives whose footprint expands only when local validation indicates that the current scope is insufficient. This design separates a unified agent substrate (Knowledge Base / Decision Manager / Communication Manager) from a scoped interaction layer that controls who is contacted, how far coordination propagates, and when escalation is triggered under explicit budgets. We evaluate \CASCADE on disrupted manufacturing and supply-chain settings using unified diagnostics intended to test a mechanism-design claim -- whether explicit scope control yields useful quality-latency-communication trade-offs and improved robustness under uncertainty -- rather than to provide a complete algorithmic ranking.

When automated decision systems fail, organizations frequently discover that formally compliant governance infrastructure cannot reconstruct what happened or why. This paper synthesizes an operational governance evidence framework -- structural accountability collapse diagnostics, decision trace schemas, evidence sufficiency measurement, and label-free monitoring -- into an integrated chain and analytically assesses its transferability across four decision system architectures. The cross-architecture comparison reveals a governance coverage gradient: deterministic rule engines achieve full DES-property fillability, hybrid ML+rules systems achieve partial fillability, classical ML systems achieve only minimal fillability, and agentic AI systems encounter structural breaks. We introduce the cascade of uncertainty, showing how governance failures propagate through serial dependencies between framework layers. For agentic systems, we identify three structural breaks -- decision diffusion, evidence fragmentation, and responsibility ambiguity -- and propose corresponding analytical extensions. Four propositions formalize the gradient, cascade compounding, delegation-depth effects, and extension sufficiency, establishing boundary conditions for the framework's valid operating envelope.

Large Language model (LLM)-based Multi-Agent Systems (MAS) are prone to cascading risks, where early-stage interactions remain semantically fluent and policy-compliant, yet the underlying interaction dynamics begin to distort in ways that amplify latent instability or misalignment. Traditional auditing methods that focus on per-message semantic content are inherently reactive and lagging, failing to capture these early structural precursors. In this paper, we propose a principled framework for cascading-risk detection grounded in semantic--geometric co-evolution. We model MAS interactions as dynamic graphs and introduce Ollivier--Ricci Curvature (ORC) -- a discrete geometric measure -- to characterize information redundancy and bottleneck formation in communication topologies. By coupling semantic flow signals with graph geometry, the framework learns the normal co-evolutionary dynamics of trusted collaboration and treats deviations from this coupled manifold as early-warning signals. Experiments on a suite of cascading-risk scenarios aligned with the risk category demonstrate that curvature anomalies systematically precede explicit semantic violations by several interaction turns, enabling proactive intervention. Furthermore, the local nature of Ricci curvature provides principled interpretability for root-cause attribution, identifying specific agents or links that precipitate the collapse of trustworthy collaboration.

As modern microservice systems grow increasingly popular and complex-often consisting of hundreds or even thousands of fine-grained, interdependent components-they are becoming more susceptible to frequent and subtle failures. Ensuring system reliability therefore hinges on accurate and efficient failure localization. Traditional failure localization approaches based on small models lack the flexibility to adapt to diverse failure scenarios, while recent LLM-based methods suffer from two major limitations: they often rely on rigid invocation workflows that constrain the model's ability to dynamically explore optimal localization paths, and they require resource-intensive inference, making them cost-prohibitive for real-world deployment. To address these challenges, we explore the use of reinforcement fine-tuning to equip lightweight LLMs with reasoning and self-refinement capabilities, significantly improving the cost-effectiveness and adaptability of LLM-based failure localization. We begin with an empirical study to identify three key capabilities essential for accurate localization. Building on these insights, we propose a progressive multi-stage GRPO fine-tuning framework, which integrates a multi-factor failure localization grader and a recursion-of-thought actor module. The resulting model, ThinkFL, not only outperforms existing state-of-the-art LLMs and baseline methods in localization accuracy but also reduces end-to-end localization latency from minutes to seconds, demonstrating strong potential for real-world applications.

Training LLM agents in multi-turn environments with sparse rewards, where completing a single task requires 30+ turns of interaction within an episode, presents a fundamental challenge for reinforcement learning. We identify a critical failure mode unique to this setting: the exploration-exploitation cascade failure. This cascade begins with early-stage policy premature convergence, where sparse feedback causes agents to commit to flawed, low-entropy strategies. Subsequently, agents enter late-stage policy collapse, where conventional entropy regularization becomes counterproductive, promoting chaotic exploration that destabilizes training. We propose Entropy-regularized Policy Optimization (EPO), a general framework that breaks this failure cycle through three synergistic mechanisms: (1) adopting entropy regularization in multi-turn settings to enhance exploration, (2) an entropy smoothing regularizer that bounds policy entropy within historical averages to prevent abrupt fluctuations, and (3) adaptive phase-based weighting that balances exploration and exploitation across training. Our analysis justifies that EPO guarantees monotonically decreasing entropy variance while maintaining convergence. EPO achieves up to 152% performance improvement on ScienceWorld and up to 19.8% on ALFWorld. Our work demonstrates that multi-turn sparse-reward settings require fundamentally different entropy control than traditional RL, with broad implications for LLM agent training.

AI agents often fail in ways that are difficult to localize because executions are probabilistic, long-horizon, multi-agent, and mediated by noisy tool outputs. We address this gap by manually annotating failed agent runs and release a novel benchmark of 115 failed trajectories spanning structured API workflows, incident management, and open-ended web/file tasks. Each trajectory is annotated with a critical failure step and a category from a grounded-theory derived, cross-domain failure taxonomy. To mitigate the human cost of failure attribution, we present AGENTRX, an automated domain-agnostic diagnostic framework that pinpoints the critical failure step in a failed agent trajectory. It synthesizes constraints, evaluates them step-by-step, and produces an auditable validation log of constraint violations with associated evidence; an LLM-based judge uses this log to localize the critical step and category. Our framework improves step localization and failure attribution over existing baselines across three domains.

Autonomous systems, such as self-driving cars and drones, have made significant strides in recent years by leveraging visual inputs and machine learning for decision-making and control. Despite their impressive performance, these vision-based controllers can make erroneous predictions when faced with novel or out-of-distribution inputs. Such errors can cascade into catastrophic system failures and compromise system safety. In this work, we compute Neural Reachable Tubes, which act as parameterized approximations of Backward Reachable Tubes to stress-test the vision-based controllers and mine their failure modes. The identified failures are then used to enhance the system safety through both offline and online methods. The online approach involves training a classifier as a run-time failure monitor to detect closed-loop, system-level failures, subsequently triggering a fallback controller that robustly handles these detected failures to preserve system safety. For the offline approach, we improve the original controller via incremental training using a carefully augmented failure dataset, resulting in a more robust controller that is resistant to the known failure modes. In either approach, the system is safeguarded against shortcomings that transcend the vision-based controller and pertain to the closed-loop safety of the overall system. We validate the proposed approaches on an autonomous aircraft taxiing task that involves using a vision-based controller to guide the aircraft towards the centerline of the runway. Our results show the efficacy of the proposed algorithms in identifying and handling system-level failures, outperforming methods that rely on controller prediction error or uncertainty quantification for identifying system failures.

Despite growing enthusiasm for Multi-Agent Systems (MAS), where multiple LLM agents collaborate to accomplish tasks, their performance gains across popular benchmarks remain minimal compared to single-agent frameworks. This gap highlights the need to analyze the challenges hindering MAS effectiveness. In this paper, we present the first comprehensive study of MAS challenges. We analyze five popular MAS frameworks across over 150 tasks, involving six expert human annotators. We identify 14 unique failure modes and propose a comprehensive taxonomy applicable to various MAS frameworks. This taxonomy emerges iteratively from agreements among three expert annotators per study, achieving a Cohen's Kappa score of 0.88. These fine-grained failure modes are organized into 3 categories, (i) specification and system design failures, (ii) inter-agent misalignment, and (iii) task verification and termination. To support scalable evaluation, we integrate MASFT with LLM-as-a-Judge. We also explore if identified failures could be easily prevented by proposing two interventions: improved specification of agent roles and enhanced orchestration strategies. Our findings reveal that identified failures require more complex solutions, highlighting a clear roadmap for future research. We open-source our dataset and LLM annotator.

AI systems fail silently far more often than they fail visibly. In an analysis of 100K human-AI interactions from the WildChat dataset, we find that 79% of AI failures are invisible: something went wrong but the user gave no overt indication that there was a problem. These invisible failures cluster into eight archetypes that help us characterize where and how AI systems are failing to meet users' needs. In addition, the archetypes show systematic co-occurrence patterns indicating higher-level failure types. To address the question of whether these archetypes will remain relevant as AI systems become more capable, we also created and annotated a counterfactual dataset in which WildChat's 2024-era responses are replaced by those from three present-day frontier LMs. This analysis indicates that failure rates have dropped substantially, but that the vast majority of failures remain invisible in our sense, and the distribution of failure archetypes seems stable. Finally, we illustrate how the archetypes help us to identify systematic and variable AI limitations across different usage domains. Overall, we argue that our invisible failure taxonomy can be a key component in reliable failure monitoring for product developers, scientists, and policy makers. Our code and data are available at https://github.com/bigspinai/bigspin-invisible-failure-archetypes

In production large language model (LLM) deployments, high API availability guarantees do not equate to conversational continuity. When a primary provider experiences an outage or strict rate-limiting, naive stateless failover mechanisms successfully maintain uptime but silently discard conversation history, severely disrupting the user experience. To rigorously quantify and resolve this failure mode, we introduce two novel metrics: Continuity Preservation Rate (CPR) and Continuity Latency Overhead (CLO). We propose a stateful, multi-provider proxy architecture utilizing a History-Forwarding strategy to seamlessly reconstruct conversational state across heterogeneous LLM endpoints during failover events. Furthermore, we release continuity-bench, https://github.com/Vishal-sys-code/continuity-bench, an open evaluation harness designed to stress-test context preservation under high-concurrency provider failure conditions. Our empirical evaluation (N=750 failover events) demonstrates that our stateful proxy achieves a 99.20\% CPR [95\% CI: 98.27\%, 99.63\%], cleanly transferring deep conversational context to fallback providers, compared to a near-0\% preservation rate for standard stateless architectures. Finally, we characterize failover latency distributions, identifying the critical necessity of asynchronous exponential backoff with jitter to prevent cascading retry storms against strict-limit fallback APIs. Our results provide a principled foundation for building robust, state-preserving multi-model inference systems.

Existing evaluations often reduce agent failures to system-level outcomes, obscuring where the fault originated and which intervention would improve the agent system. This creates a repair-assignment problem: the same visible failure may call for model post-training, harness engineering, environment redesign, or benchmark repair depending on its source. Because agent behavior emerges from interactions among models, harnesses, users, tools, memory, and environments, outcome-level labels are often insufficient for improvement. Most failure taxonomies do little to resolve this problem because they are benchmark-specific and lack a shared structure. We introduce an interaction-centric taxonomy that localizes failures to the interactions in which they originate and identifies the responsible component. It organizes 41 failure modes by assigning each to an edge between two components and a fault side indicating where the repair belongs. This makes the taxonomy actionable: model-side failures identify targets for post-training, harness-side failures point to scaffolding and tool-integration fixes, and environment or grader failures reveal evaluation conditions requiring redesign. The schema applies across agent architectures, from coding assistants to long-horizon personal assistants and multi-agent systems. We ground the taxonomy in worked examples from public benchmarks, model system cards, published reports, and logged agent trajectories, and evaluate its reproducibility using independent reasoning agents as judges. Across four frontier models, the strongest judge reaches Cohen's κ=0.76 against human category labels, suggesting that the categories capture shared structure rather than annotator-specific preferences.

Agentic systems consisting of multiple LLM-driven agents coordinating through tools and structured interactions, are increasingly deployed for complex reasoning and problem-solving tasks. At the same time, emerging low-code and template-based agent development platforms (e.g., Dify) enable users to rapidly build and orchestrate agentic systems, which we refer to as platform-orchestrated agentic systems. However, these systems are also fragile and it remains unclear how to systematically identify their potential failure root cause. This paper presents a study of root cause identification of these platform-orchestrated agentic systems. To support this initiative, we construct a dataset AgentFail containing 307 failure logs from ten agentic systems, each with fine-grained annotations linking failures to their root causes. We additionally utilize counterfactual reasoning-based repair strategy to ensure the reliability of the annotation. Building on the dataset, we develop a taxonomy that characterizes failure root causes and analyze their distribution across different platforms and task domains. Furthermore, we introduce a benchmark that leverages LLMs for automatically identifying root causes, in which we also utilize the proposed taxonomy as guidance for LLMs. Results show that the taxonomy can largely improve the performance, thereby confirming its utility. Nevertheless, the accuracy of root cause identification reaches at most 33.6%, which indicates that this task still remains challenging. In light of these results, we also provide actionable guidelines for building such agentic systems. In summary, this paper provides a reliable dataset of failure root cause for platform-orchestrated agentic systems, corresponding taxonomy and benchmark, which serves as a foundation for advancing the development of more reliable agentic systems.

The deployment of Large Language Models (LLMs) as autonomous economic agents introduces systemic risks that extend beyond individual capability failures. As agents transition to directly interacting with marketplaces, their collective behavior can amplify volatility and mask deception at scale. We introduce the Agent Bazaar, a multi-agent simulation framework for evaluating Economic Alignment, the capacity of agentic systems to preserve market stability and integrity. We identify two failure modes: (1) Algorithmic Instability in a B2C market ("The Crash"), where firms amplify price volatility until the market collapses, and (2) Sybil Deception in a C2C market ("The Lemon Market"), where a single deceptive agent controlling multiple coordinated seller identities floods the market with fraudulent listings, eroding trust and consumer welfare. We evaluate frontier and open-weight models across both scenarios and find that models largely fail to self-regulate, with failure severity varying by model rather than by size. We propose economically aligned harnesses, Stabilizing Firms and Skeptical Guardians, that improve outcomes but remain fragile under harder market conditions. To close this gap, we train agents with REINFORCE++ using an adaptive curriculum, producing a 9B model that outperforms all evaluated frontier and open-weight models. We propose the Economic Alignment Score (EAS), a 4-component scalar metric aggregating stability, integrity, welfare, and profitability, enabling direct cross-model comparison. Our results show that economic alignment is orthogonal to general capability and can be directly trained with targeted RL.

LLM agents are predominantly benchmarked on short, single-task trajectories, yet real deployments run for hours under contention, surfacing a different class of failures. We use the Clinical Environment Simulator (CES), in which an agent manages an entire emergency-department shift under continuous time and resource pressure, as a testbed: long-horizon execution failures manifest measurably in a single rollout under structured, multi-dimensional grading. On CES, current agents reach the correct diagnosis in most cases yet fail to deliver complete and timely critical actions, revealing an execution gap. We attribute this gap to three long-horizon failure modes, each operationalized as a per-trace counter: instruction-adherence drift, treatment incompleteness, and a severity-equity gap in timeliness. We then introduce Asclepius, an adaptive agent scaffolding with a self-evolving harness that rewrites the operating manual between shifts from trace-level feedback, an externalized clinical skills library for high-stakes regimen knowledge, and three isolated subagents that partition per-turn decisions across the patient queue. On held-out batches never observed during harness evolution, Asclepius improves critical-action correctness by 22% (p = 0.024) over a strong baseline agent framework while preserving diagnostic accuracy, with consistent gains across five LLM judges from three model families; on the full ten-batch set, improvements reach 25% on critical actions and 13% on timeliness. The three failure modes form a coupled bottleneck: decisive reductions appear only when all three components act together.

LLM-based multi-agent systems (MASs) are increasingly used to solve complex tasks through coordinated reasoning, tool use, and interaction with external resources. However, attributing failures in such systems remains challenging because the observed outcome often does not directly reveal the error responsible for the failed execution. In this work, the attribution target is the decisive error, defined as the agent--step pair whose correction would recover the failed execution. Existing approaches largely identify suspicious steps without explicitly modeling how errors propagate across interactions or persist in unresolved loops, making decisive errors difficult to distinguish from downstream failure symptoms. We propose Error-Propagation Modeling for Failure Attribution (EMFA). EMFA constructs a structured representation of the failed trajectory, models both cascading propagation and persistent interaction loops, and uses propagation-aware candidate screening followed by counterfactual verification to identify the decisive agent--step pair. On the Who\&When benchmark, EMFA achieves state-of-the-art step-level attribution accuracy and remains competitive at the agent level. It improves the previous best step-level results by 3.45 and 4.40 percentage points on the Hand-Crafted and Algorithm-Generated subsets, respectively.

Multi-agent systems composed of large generative models are rapidly moving from laboratory prototypes to real-world deployments, where they jointly plan, negotiate, and allocate shared resources to solve complex tasks. While such systems promise unprecedented scalability and autonomy, their collective interaction also gives rise to failure modes that cannot be reduced to individual agents. Understanding these emergent risks is therefore critical. Here, we present a pioneer study of such emergent multi-agent risk in workflows that involve competition over shared resources (e.g., computing resources or market share), sequential handoff collaboration (where downstream agents see only predecessor outputs), collective decision aggregation, and others. Across these settings, we observe that such group behaviors arise frequently across repeated trials and a wide range of interaction conditions, rather than as rare or pathological cases. In particular, phenomena such as collusion-like coordination and conformity emerge with non-trivial frequency under realistic resource constraints, communication protocols, and role assignments, mirroring well-known pathologies in human societies despite no explicit instruction. Moreover, these risks cannot be prevented by existing agent-level safeguards alone. These findings expose the dark side of intelligent multi-agent systems: a social intelligence risk where agent collectives, despite no instruction to do so, spontaneously reproduce familiar failure patterns from human societies.

Large Language Model-based Multi-Agent Systems (LLM-MAS) are increasingly applied to complex collaborative scenarios. However, their collaborative mechanisms may cause minor inaccuracies to gradually solidify into system-level false consensus through iteration. Such risks are difficult to trace since errors can propagate and amplify through message dependencies. Existing protections often rely on single-agent validation or require modifications to the collaboration architecture, which can weaken effective information flow and may not align with natural collaboration processes in real tasks. To address this, we propose a propagation dynamics model tailored for LLM-MAS that abstracts collaboration as a directed dependency graph and provides an early-stage risk criterion to characterize amplification risk. Through experiments on six mainstream frameworks, we identify three vulnerability classes: cascade amplification, topological sensitivity, and consensus inertia. We further instantiate an attack where injecting just a single atomic error seed leads to widespread failure. In response, we introduce a genealogy-graph-based governance layer, implemented as a message-layer plugin, that suppresses both endogenous and exogenous error amplification without altering the collaboration architecture. Experiments show that this approach raises the defense success rate from a baseline of 0.32 to over 0.89 and significantly mitigates the cascading spread of minor errors.

Vulnerabilities in open-source software can cause cascading effects in the modern digital ecosystem. It is especially worrying if these vulnerabilities repeat across many projects, as once the adversaries find one of them, they can scale up the attack very easily. Unfortunately, since developers frequently reuse code from their own or external code resources, some nearly identical vulnerabilities exist across many open-source projects. We conducted a study to examine the prevalence of a particular vulnerable code pattern that enables path traversal attacks (CWE-22) across open-source GitHub projects. To handle this study at the GitHub scale, we developed an automated pipeline that scans GitHub for the targeted vulnerable pattern, confirms the vulnerability by first running a static analysis and then exploiting the vulnerability in the context of the studied project, assesses its impact by calculating the CVSS score, generates a patch using GPT-4, and reports the vulnerability to the maintainers. Using our pipeline, we identified 1,756 vulnerable open-source projects, some of which are very influential. For many of the affected projects, the vulnerability is critical (CVSS score higher than 9.0), as it can be exploited remotely without any privileges and critically impact the confidentiality and availability of the system. We have responsibly disclosed the vulnerability to the maintainers, and 14\% of the reported vulnerabilities have been remediated. We also investigated the root causes of the vulnerable code pattern and assessed the side effects of the large number of copies of this vulnerable pattern that seem to have poisoned several popular LLMs. Our study highlights the urgent need to help secure the open-source ecosystem by leveraging scalable automated vulnerability management solutions and raising awareness among developers.

Systemic financial risk refers to the simultaneous failure or destabilization of multiple financial institutions, often triggered by contagion mechanisms or common exposures to shocks. In this paper, we present a dynamical model of bank leverage (the ratio of asset holdings to equity) a quantity that both reflects and drives risk dynamics. We model how banks, constrained by Value-at-Risk (VaR) regulations, adjust their leverage in response to changes in the price of a single asset, assumed to be held in fixed proportion across banks. This leverage-targeting behavior introduces a procyclical feedback loop between asset prices and leverage. In the dynamics, this can manifest as logistic-like behavior with a rich bifurcation structure across model parameters. By analyzing these coupled dynamics in both isolated and interconnected bank models, we outline a framework for understanding how systemic risk can emerge from seemingly rational micro-level behavior.

Message passing graph neural networks (GNNs) would appear to be powerful tools to learn distributed algorithms via gradient descent, but generate catastrophically incorrect predictions when nodes update asynchronously during inference. This failure under asynchrony effectively excludes these architectures from many potential applications, such as learning local communication policies between resource-constrained agents in, e.g., robotic swarms or sensor networks. In this work we explore why this failure occurs in common GNN architectures, and identify "implicitly-defined" GNNs as a class of architectures which is provably robust to partially asynchronous "hogwild" inference, adapting convergence guarantees from work in asynchronous and distributed optimization, e.g., Bertsekas (1982); Niu et al. (2011). We then propose a novel implicitly-defined GNN architecture, which we call an energy GNN. We show that this architecture outperforms other GNNs from this class on a variety of synthetic tasks inspired by multi-agent systems, and achieves competitive performance on real-world datasets.

Self-evolving runtime harnesses can substantially improve the capabilities of large language model (LLM) agents and provide a promising paradigm for optimizing agent execution. Existing failure-driven approaches often treat observed agent failures as direct evidence for harness modification. A key challenge in failure-driven harness evolution is that observed failures can reflect either limitations of the underlying model or systematic deficiencies of the harness. Directly optimizing against individual failures can therefore induce model-specific accommodation and impair generalization across tasks and models. We study whether failure evidence accumulated across task instances can provide a more reliable signal for harness training. Our key insight is that failures recurring across distinct tasks provide stronger inductive evidence for systematic harness deficiencies than isolated failures. Based on this insight, we propose Ecdysis, which aggregates failure evidence across task instances before promoting recurring failure patterns into persistent harness evolution, biasing evolution toward repairs that are more likely to generalize beyond individual model behaviors. Ecdysis further employs collaborative failure analysis to refine modification specifications, trading additional evolution-time reasoning for improved modification quality. Across multiple LLMs and benchmarks, Ecdysis improves the reasoning accuracy of evolved harnesses by 18.56% over existing harness evolution while achieving up to 1.84x faster harness training. Ecdysis also enables more data-efficient training. Fine-grained analysis shows that Ecdysis reduces model-specific accommodation during evolution, while the resulting harnesses exhibit stronger cross-LLM generalization and lower inference-time token consumption.

Generative image editing models struggle with structured statistical charts when data modifications require geometric synchronization. We formalize this task as Visuo-Logical Cascading Editing (VLCE). However, existing methods remain confined to localized text substitutions and struggle with dependency-aware cascading updates. To systematically evaluate this capability, we introduce ChartSync, an expert-validated benchmark constructed via a programmatic rendering pipeline that guarantees deterministic visuo-logical coupling for the ground truth. ChartSync comprises 870 triplets across 9 chart categories and 4 task types, including 235 geometry-coupled VLCE instances that specifically test cascading text-to-geometry synchronization. We further evaluate these instances via a two-tier framework combining objective visual metrics with a vision-language model judge paradigm to assess low-level fidelity alongside multimodal comprehension and reasoning. Evaluating 14 image editing models and one code-mediated pipeline reveals a nuanced capability gap: most open-source models suffer severe drops in geometric synchronization, while only two frontier proprietary models show emerging VLCE capability, with their residual errors mainly involving semantic isolation and background corruption. Our detailed error analysis deconstructs these failure paradigms to identify core meta-abilities for guiding future multimodal architectures. The ChartSync dataset and code are publicly released at https://github.com/kaka-yjk/ChartSyncCodebase.

Imitation learning (IL) with generative models, such as diffusion and flow matching, has enabled robots to perform complex, long-horizon tasks. However, distribution shifts from unseen environments or compounding action errors can still cause unpredictable and unsafe behavior, leading to task failure. Early failure prediction during runtime is therefore essential for deploying robots in human-centered and safety-critical environments. We propose FIPER, a general framework for Failure Prediction at Runtime for generative IL policies that does not require failure data. FIPER identifies two key indicators of impending failure: (i) out-of-distribution (OOD) observations detected via random network distillation in the policy's embedding space, and (ii) high uncertainty in generated actions measured by a novel action-chunk entropy score. Both failure prediction scores are calibrated using a small set of successful rollouts via conformal prediction. A failure alarm is triggered when both indicators, aggregated over short time windows, exceed their thresholds. We evaluate FIPER across five simulation and real-world environments involving diverse failure modes. Our results demonstrate that FIPER better distinguishes actual failures from benign OOD situations and predicts failures more accurately and earlier than existing methods. We thus consider this work an important step towards more interpretable and safer generative robot policies. Code, data and videos are available at https://tum-lsy.github.io/fiper_website.

AI systems can fail silently. The failure propagates through training loops, evaluation pipelines, and production monitoring stacks until downstream harm makes it visible. This paper introduces evaluation blindness: a measurement function M exhibits evaluation blindness with respect to failure class F when it produces readings indistinguishable from a healthy state while the system is actually failing, with no auxiliary signal flagging the gap. The problem surfaces at two lifecycle stages the literature has treated separately. At training time, reward models are gamed, importance-sampling corrections are silently miscalculated, and benchmark contamination inflates fine-tuning evaluations, all while loss curves look healthy and gradient updates proceed normally. At deployment time, monitoring fails to catch six classes of production failure, including an Operational category that is 100% silent by structural definition. We provide a formal detectability predicate unifying both stages. Four training-time case studies trace concrete breakdowns, including a real implementation bug in TRL PR #6594 where gradients are corrupted as loss decreases normally. A six-class taxonomy validated against 50 real-world incidents from court documents and regulatory filings finds that 53% of verifiable public failures were silent. A failure budget framework ties acceptable failure rates to use-case risk class. The implication is direct: measurement infrastructure is a correctness concern across the full AI lifecycle, not just at evaluation time. Data, code, and taxonomy schema are at https://github.com/priyanka25aug/llm-failure-taxonomy.

AI has long assisted scientific research, but the rapid advance of LLMs and agentic scaffolds is reshaping the landscape; a single system can now carry whole-stage research from an initial hypothesis all the way to final published paper, which is a paradigm now referred to as AutoResearch. Existing evaluations reveal little about how these agents operate or where they break down. Tasks are narrowly-scoped, evaluation measures performance but not process, and failure diagnoses lack systematic coverage or artifact-level visibility. To address this gap, we introduce AutoResearchEval, featuring 100 tasks grounded in published frontier science across 7 scientific domains and the full research lifecycle, including ideation, retrieval, execution, analysis, writing, and review. Evaluating 8 harness-model combinations yields 800 autoresearch agent trajectories, with process-level annotation. We organize these insights into AutoResearch Failure Taxonomy or ARFT, a framework of 45 empirically-grounded failure patterns. To enable scalable fine-grained attribution, we leverage a human-calibrated agent-as-a-judge pipeline to inspect complete trajectories and intermediate artifacts. Failure patterns converge on a single overarching limitation, namely that current agents lack a metacognitive loop, which entails the ability to check what they produced against what they found, revise when it does not hold up, and question whether the path they took was sound. The same patterns recur across all 8 harness-model combinations, including the strongest models tested, locating the deficit at the model level rather than in any particular scaffold; whether orchestration-level interventions can close it is an open question this work does not test. We publicly release AutoResearchEval and ARFT to facilitate continued research and development in autonomous scientific discovery.

The continuous delivery of modern software requires the execution of many automated pipeline jobs. These jobs ensure the frequent release of new software versions while detecting code problems at an early stage. For TELUS, our industrial partner in the telecommunications field, reliable job execution is crucial to minimize wasted time and streamline Continuous Deployment (CD). In this context, flaky job failures are one of the main issues hindering CD. Prior studies proposed techniques based on machine learning to automate the detection of flaky jobs. While valuable, these solutions are insufficient to address the waste associated with the diagnosis of flaky failures, which remain largely unexplored due to the wide range of underlying causes. This study examines 4,511 flaky job failures at TELUS to identify the different categories of flaky failures that we prioritize based on Recency, Frequency, and Monetary (RFM) measures. We identified 46 flaky failure categories that we analyzed using clustering and RFM measures to determine 14 priority categories for future automated diagnosis and repair research. Our findings also provide valuable insights into the evolution and impact of these categories. The identification and prioritization of flaky failure categories using RFM analysis introduce a novel approach that can be used in other contexts.

As LLM-based Multi-Agent Systems (MAS) are increasingly deployed for complex tasks, ensuring their reliability has become a pressing challenge. Since MAS coordinate through unstructured natural language rather than rigid protocols, they are prone to semantic failures (e.g., hallucinations, misinterpreted instructions, and reasoning drift) that propagate silently without raising runtime exceptions. Prevailing evaluation approaches, which measure only end-to-end task success, offer limited insight into how these failures arise or how effectively agents recover from them. To bridge this gap, we propose MAS-FIRE, a systematic framework for fault injection and reliability evaluation of MAS. We define a taxonomy of 15 fault types covering intra-agent cognitive errors and inter-agent coordination failures, and inject them via three non-invasive mechanisms: prompt modification, response rewriting, and message routing manipulation. Applying MAS-FIRE to three representative MAS architectures, we uncover a rich set of fault-tolerant behaviors that we organize into four tiers: mechanism, rule, prompt, and reasoning. This tiered view enables fine-grained diagnosis of where and why systems succeed or fail. Our findings reveal that stronger foundation models do not uniformly improve robustness. We further show that architectural topology plays an equally decisive role, with iterative, closed-loop designs neutralizing over 40% of faults that cause catastrophic collapse in linear workflows. MAS-FIRE provides the process-level observability and actionable guidance needed to systematically improve multi-agent systems.

LLM agents increasingly rely on iterative execution to solve tasks through planning, tool use, state updates, and agent collaboration. While this design enables flexible automation, it also creates a new class of failures: an agent may repeatedly execute model calls, tools, workflow transitions, or agent handoffs when the feedback path is not effectively bounded. We call this problem Infinite Agentic Loops (IALs). IALs are not ordinary programming loops; they arise from the interaction between agent logic, framework semantics, runtime observations, and termination mechanisms. Such failures can amplify a single request into long running model and tool execution, causing cost exhaustion, model denial of service, context growth, and repeated external side effects. We propose IAL-Scan, a static analysis tool for detecting IAL failures in real-world LLM agent projects. IAL-Scan abstracts heterogeneous agent code into a framework independent Agent IR, builds an Agentic Loop Dependence Graph (ALDG) to recover explicit and framework induced feedback paths, and checks whether these paths can repeatedly reach costly or state growing operations without an effective bound. We evaluate IAL-Scan on 6,549 LLM agent repositories. It reports 74 potential findings, among which manual review confirms 68 IAL failures across 47 projects, achieving 91.9% precision.

We report a case study of four end-to-end attempts to autonomously generate ML research papers using a pipeline of six LLM agents mapped to stages of the scientific workflow. Of these four, three attempts failed during implementation or evaluation. One completed the pipeline and was accepted to Agents4Science 2025, an experimental inaugural venue that required AI systems as first authors, passing both human and multi-AI review. From these attempts, we document six recurring failure modes: bias toward training data defaults, implementation drift under execution pressure, memory and context degradation across long-horizon tasks, overexcitement that declares success despite obvious failures, insufficient domain intelligence, and weak scientific taste in experimental design. We conclude by discussing four design principles for more robust AI-scientist systems, implications for autonomous scientific discovery, and we release all prompts, artifacts, and outputs at https://github.com/Lossfunk/ai-scientist-artefacts-v1

Recent advances in language models (LMs) have led to significant improvements in quality on complex NLP tasks, but at the expense of increased inference costs. Cascading offers a simple strategy to achieve more favorable cost-quality tradeoffs: here, a small model is invoked for most "easy" instances, while a few "hard" instances are deferred to the large model. While the principles underpinning cascading are well-studied for classification tasks - with deferral based on predicted class uncertainty favored theoretically and practically - a similar understanding is lacking for generative LM tasks. In this work, we initiate a systematic study of deferral rules for LM cascades. We begin by examining the natural extension of predicted class uncertainty to generative LM tasks, namely, the predicted sequence uncertainty. We show that this measure suffers from the length bias problem, either over- or under-emphasizing outputs based on their lengths. This is because LMs produce a sequence of uncertainty values, one for each output token; and moreover, the number of output tokens is variable across examples. To mitigate this issue, we propose to exploit the richer token-level uncertainty information implicit in generative LMs. We argue that naive predicted sequence uncertainty corresponds to a simple aggregation of these uncertainties. By contrast, we show that incorporating token-level uncertainty through learned post-hoc deferral rules can significantly outperform such simple aggregation strategies, via experiments on a range of natural language benchmarks with FLAN-T5 models. We further show that incorporating embeddings from the smaller model and intermediate layers of the larger model can give an additional boost in the overall cost-quality tradeoff.

Autonomous agents increasingly perform bounded software tasks under an orchestrator that retries, resumes, and budgets them. The machinery such orchestrators reach for is the service mesh's: retry, timeout, and error-rate circuit breaking. We report a failure study of a production agentic software-delivery platform over 147 numbered incidents spanning 81 runs, each with a measured cost and, in most cases, a mutation proof reproducing the failure. All three assumptions those primitives rest on are violated in practice, and we quantify the consequences: a loop of fifty-four consecutive successful tool calls no error-rate breaker could see; a progress signal constant by construction, guaranteeing a false trip on the third repair round and driving one run from six of six components to three; twenty-one events accumulated across six invocations of one delegation, making a correct, idempotent component unwinnable; a misrouted failure that woke five components for a two-component fault, leaving three bystanders regressing working code; and twelve incidents in which the enforcement layer blocked correct work, the most expensive costing 107 agent turns and zero accepted writes. We find one cross-cutting cause and its dual. Identity adequacy: in five separate subsystems an identity that failed to discriminate produced a confident wrong answer, and two of them derived the corrective rule independently. Evidence adequacy: a reliability decision may be taken only on evidence capable of moving, attributable to what it measures, and deterministic under identical conditions. From the findings we derive seven reliability primitives whose enforcement unit is the delegation rather than the message, and specify the controlled evaluation the study motivates but does not constitute.

Safety benchmark scores provide incomplete evidence of deployment readiness: aligned language models often adhere to rigid rules even when a situational update flips which action is safe. We term this failure brittle safety. To diagnose it, we introduce context-flip evaluation, testing 12 models across a safety benchmark (PacifAIst) and two commonsense controls using paired variants where the nominally safe action produces harm. Three findings emerge. First, brittle safety is safety-specific: all 12 models exhibit a safety-commonsense gap (mean +17.4 pp). Baseline accuracy fails to predict brittleness: among models above 90% baseline accuracy, brittleness rates range from 13.7% to 90.0%. Second, failures stem from policy override rather than miscomprehension: despite acknowledging the context change in every case, models persist via three distinct mechanisms that vary by update type and model family. Third, on a hand-audited probe of catastrophic consequence-flip scenarios, standard action-level guardrails catch none, while a state-aware validator catches all without false alarms on correct interventions. This indicates that action-level content moderation is systematically blind to consequence-flips, motivating state-aware architectural alternatives. We release our protocol, perturbed benchmarks, and deployment probe.

Despite the success of deep learning, training deep networks in biologically plausible and hardware-efficient ways remains an open challenge. Feedback alignment (FA) methods address this by replacing backpropagation's symmetric backward weights with fixed random matrices, but their effectiveness depends critically on whether they can be accurately evaluated. The standard evaluation relies on two quantities: task accuracy and cosine similarity between the method's credit signal and the backpropagation gradient. We show that this reporting pair is insufficient by identifying two independent failure modes, both silent under current reporting: (1) measurement degeneracy, where the BP reference gradient collapses to the numerical floor in terminal-LayerNorm residual architectures, rendering cosine uninterpretable; and (2) aggregation collapse, where the aggregate cosine masks layerwise heterogeneity that concentrates credit at one end of the network. To address these limitations, we propose a diagnostic evaluation protocol based on three checks -- scale stability, reference validity, and depth utility -- together with per-layer rather than aggregate cosine reporting. Across multiple architectures and methods, the standard reporting pair gives no signal of failure in any audited case, while our protocol identifies all failures with wide calibration margins. The two failure modes are causally independent: a per-block scale penalty alleviates Mode 1 (residual scale explosion driving reference collapse) without affecting Mode 2 (cosine ranking that contradicts every functional metric we measured). Identifying these silent failures prevents researchers from building on non-functional credit assignment and provides actionable guidance for developing FA methods that genuinely train deep layers.

Classical supply chain risk models treat node failures as statistically independent events, systematically underestimating cascade probabilities when supplier dependencies are strongly correlated. At n=40 nodes, the full correlated failure distribution requires O(2^n) classical samples, a regime where exact simulation demands 17.6 TB of memory and over 369,000 hours of computation on a standard workstation. We present QR-SPPS (Quantum-Native Retail Shock Propagation and Policy Stress Simulator), a three-algorithm quantum pipeline implemented using the Qiskit framework with the Aer statevector_simulator backend. First, a 40-node, 4-tier retail supply network is encoded as a 40-qubit Ising Hamiltonian using OpenFermion QubitOperator, where ZZ coupling terms encode correlated cascade probabilities structurally absent from classical Monte Carlo. Second, a hardware-efficient VQE circuit finds the ground-state stress distribution with zero error, detecting entangled cascade failures in 14/40 nodes with max|ΔP|=0.637 versus classical Monte Carlo. Third, we introduce the first application of ADAPT-VQE gradient screening to counterfactual macroeconomic policy evaluation: six crisis interventions are ranked in O(1) Qiskit operator evaluations per policy, a 287x speedup over sequential VQE re-optimisation. Fourth, Density-of-States QPE (DOS-QPE) reconstructs the full eigenspectrum via 32-step Trotter evolution and introduces a novel mapping of the Boltzmann catastrophe probability P_cat(T) to VIX-equivalent market volatility temperature, enabling direct integration into regulatory Value-at-Risk frameworks. Qiskit Aer scaling benchmarks confirm exponential classical intractability at 40 qubits.

As AI becomes more capable, we entrust it with more general and consequential tasks. The risks from failure grow more severe with increasing task scope. It is therefore important to understand how extremely capable AI models will fail: Will they fail by systematically pursuing goals we do not intend? Or will they fail by being a hot mess, and taking nonsensical actions that do not further any goal? We operationalize this question using a bias-variance decomposition of the errors made by AI models: An AI's incoherence on a task is measured over test-time randomness as the fraction of its error that stems from variance rather than bias in task outcome. Across all tasks and frontier models we measure, the longer models spend reasoning and taking actions, the more incoherent their failures become. Incoherence changes with model scale in a way that is experiment dependent. However, in several settings, larger, more capable models are more incoherent than smaller models. Consequently, scale alone seems unlikely to eliminate incoherence. Instead, as more capable AIs pursue harder tasks, requiring more sequential action and thought, our results predict failures to be accompanied by more incoherent behavior. This suggests a future where AIs sometimes cause industrial accidents (due to unpredictable misbehavior), but are less likely to exhibit consistent pursuit of a misaligned goal. This increases the relative importance of alignment research targeting reward hacking or goal misspecification.

Larger models often outperform smaller ones but come with high computational costs. Cascading offers a potential solution. By default, it uses smaller models and defers only some instances to larger, more powerful models. However, designing effective deferral rules remains a challenge. In this paper, we propose a simple yet effective approach for machine translation, using existing quality estimation (QE) metrics as deferral rules. We show that QE-based deferral allows a cascaded system to match the performance of a larger model while invoking it for a small fraction (30% to 50%) of the examples, significantly reducing computational costs. We validate this approach through both automatic and human evaluation.

Differentiable programming techniques are widely used in the community and are responsible for the machine learning renaissance of the past several decades. While these methods are powerful, they have limits. In this short report, we discuss a common chaos based failure mode which appears in a variety of differentiable circumstances, ranging from recurrent neural networks and numerical physics simulation to training learned optimizers. We trace this failure to the spectrum of the Jacobian of the system under study, and provide criteria for when a practitioner might expect this failure to spoil their differentiation based optimization algorithms.

LLM failures in causal reasoning, including sycophancy, rung collapse, and miscalibrated refusal, are well-documented, yet progress on remediation is slow because no benchmark enables systematic diagnosis. We introduce CausalT5K, a diagnostic benchmark of over 5,000 cases across 10 domains that tests three critical capabilities: (1) detecting rung collapse, where models answer interventional queries with associational evidence; (2) resisting sycophantic drift under adversarial pressure; and (3) generating Wise Refusals that specify missing information when evidence is underdetermined. Unlike synthetic benchmarks, CausalT5K embeds causal traps in realistic narratives and decomposes performance into Utility (sensitivity) and Safety (specificity), revealing failure modes invisible to aggregate accuracy. Developed through a rigorous human-machine collaborative pipeline involving 40 domain experts, iterative cross-validation cycles, and composite verification via rule-based, LLM, and human scoring, CausalT5K implements Pearl's Ladder of Causation as research infrastructure. Preliminary experiments reveal a Four-Quadrant Control Landscape where static audit policies universally fail, a finding that demonstrates CausalT5K's value for advancing trustworthy reasoning systems. Repository: https://github.com/genglongling/CausalT5kBench

Failure attribution for LLM-based agentic systems, i.e., identifying which steps in a failure trajectory caused the task to fail, is critical for debugging and improving these systems. Existing approaches either rely on prompting-based pipelines, which are computationally expensive, or require post-training on failure trajectories with step-level error annotations, which are costly to collect and difficult to scale. We argue that a practical failure attribution model should be lightweight and trainable without step-level supervision on failure data. To this end, we address unsupervised failure attribution, i.e., training exclusively on successful trajectories and identifying error steps at inference time given a failure trajectory. We propose OAT, which casts this problem as one-class learning with neural controlled differential equations, modeling the dynamical pattern of successful trajectories in latent space. At inference time, each step in a failure trajectory is assigned an anomaly score based on its deviation from the dynamics learned on successful trajectories, which is then used to form a set of error steps. With training on only 100 successful trajectories, experiments show that OAT is 200--5000 times faster than prompting-based baselines, and, at the same time, consistently outperforms them in both in-domain and out-of-distribution datasets with +20% and +7% F1 scores, respectively, demonstrating that OAT is a promising and efficient direction for diagnosing agentic system failures.

While cloud-native microservice architectures have revolutionized software development, their inherent operational complexity makes failure Root Cause Analysis (RCA) a critical yet challenging task. Numerous data-driven RCA models have been proposed to address this challenge. However, we find that the benchmarks used to evaluate these models are often too simple to reflect real-world scenarios. Our preliminary study reveals that simple rule-based methods can achieve performance comparable to or even surpassing state-of-the-art (SOTA) models on four widely used public benchmarks. This finding suggests that the oversimplification of existing benchmarks might lead to an overestimation of the performance of RCA methods. To further investigate the oversimplification issue, we conduct a systematic analysis of popular public RCA benchmarks, identifying key limitations in their fault injection strategies, call graph structures, and telemetry signal patterns. Based on these insights, we propose an automated framework for generating more challenging and comprehensive benchmarks that include complex fault propagation scenarios. Our new dataset contains 1,430 validated failure cases from 9,152 fault injections, covering 25 fault types across 6 categories, dynamic workloads, and hierarchical ground-truth labels that map failures from services down to code-level causes. Crucially, to ensure the failure cases are relevant to IT operations, each case is validated to have a discernible impact on user-facing SLIs. Our re-evaluation of 11 SOTA models on this new benchmark shows that they achieve low Top@1 accuracies, averaging 0.21, with the best-performing model reaching merely 0.37, and execution times escalating from seconds to hours.

Prediction models can exhibit sensitivity with respect to training data: small changes in the training data can produce models that assign conflicting predictions to individual data points during test time. In this work, we study this sensitivity in recommender systems, where users' recommendations are drastically altered by minor perturbations in other unrelated users' interactions. We introduce a measure of stability for recommender systems, called Rank List Sensitivity (RLS), which measures how rank lists generated by a given recommender system at test time change as a result of a perturbation in the training data. We develop a method, CASPER, which uses cascading effect to identify the minimal and systematical perturbation to induce higher instability in a recommender system. Experiments on four datasets show that recommender models are overly sensitive to minor perturbations introduced randomly or via CASPER - even perturbing one random interaction of one user drastically changes the recommendation lists of all users. Importantly, with CASPER perturbation, the models generate more unstable recommendations for low-accuracy users (i.e., those who receive low-quality recommendations) than high-accuracy ones.

Large language model (LLM) agents frequently fail on multi-step tasks involving reasoning, tool use, and environment interaction. While such failures are typically logged or retried heuristically, they contain structured signals about where execution broke down. We introduce CausalFlow, an interventional framework that converts failed agent traces into minimal counterfactual repairs and reusable supervision. CausalFlow models execution traces as sequential chains of dependent steps and computes Causal Responsibility Scores(CRS) via step-level counterfactual intervention to identify failure-inducing steps. For these steps, we generate minimally edited repairs that flip the final outcome to success, producing validated contrastive pairs of the form (wrong step, corrected step). CausalFlow supports two complementary uses: targeted test-time repair that recovers from failures with minimal behavioral drift, and training-time supervision suitable for offline preference optimization or reward modeling. Across four benchmarks spanning mathematical reasoning, code generation, question answering, and medical browsing, CausalFlow converts failed executions into validated minimal repairs with high minimality and causal-consensus scores, and demonstrates that causal attribution is necessary for reliable improvement across diverse agent tasks, outperforming heuristic refinement in complex retrieval settings while producing more localized repairs throughout. These results demonstrate that interventional analysis over structured execution traces provides a principled and scalable mechanism for transforming agent failures into reliability gains and learning-ready supervision.

Multi-agent systems can improve reliability, yet under a fixed inference budget they often help, saturate, or even collapse. We develop a minimal and calibratable theory that predicts these regimes from three binding constraints of modern agent stacks: finite context windows, lossy inter-agent communication, and shared failures among similar agents. Each leaf agent is summarized by a compute-performance scaling exponent β; communication is captured by a message-length fidelity curve γ(m); dependence is captured by an effective shared-error correlation ρ; and a context window W imposes hard fan-in limits that make hierarchy necessary. For binary success/failure tasks with majority aggregation, we prove a sharp phase transition for deep b-ary trees with correlated inputs and lossy communication: a single scalar α_ρ (combining γ(m), ρ, and fan-in b) determines whether weak signal is amplified to a nontrivial fixed point or washed out to chance. In the amplifying regime, we derive an organization exponent s and show that budgeted synergy, i.e., outperforming the best single agent under the same total budget, occurs exactly when s>β, yielding closed-form compute allocation rules and explicit budget thresholds. We further characterize saturation via a mixing depth and provide a conservative clipped predictor that remains accurate across growth and saturation. A continuous-performance warm-up gives closed-form risks for star, chain, and tree organizations, making correlation- and communication-induced floors explicit and exposing the core design trade-offs in a smooth setting. Finally, we validate the predicted phase boundaries in controlled synthetic simulations and show how the same mechanisms explain the dominant bottlenecks reported in recent large-scale matched-budget studies of LLM agent-system scaling.

Hallucination remains a central failure mode of large language models, but existing benchmarks operationalize it inconsistently across summarization, question answering, retrieval-augmented generation, and agentic interaction. This fragmentation makes it unclear whether a mitigation that works in one setting reduces hallucinations across contexts. Current benchmarks either require human annotation and fixed references that may be memorized, or rely on observations in settings that are difficult to reproduce. To study root causes, we introduce HalluWorld, an extensible benchmark grounded in an explicit reference-world formulation: a model hallucinates when it produces an observable claim that is false with respect to this world. Building on this view, we construct synthetic and semi-synthetic environments in which the reference world is fully specified, the model's view is controlled, and hallucination labels are generated automatically. HalluWorld spans gridworlds, chess, and realistic terminal tasks, enabling controlled variation of world complexity, observability, temporal change, and source-conflict policy, and disentangling hallucinations into fine-grained error categories. We evaluate frontier and open-weight language models across these settings and find consistent patterns: perceptual hallucination on directly observed information is near-solved for frontier models, while multi-step state tracking and causal forward simulation remain difficult and are not generally solved by extended thinking. In the terminal setting, models also struggle with when to abstain. The uneven profile of failures across probe types and domains suggests that hallucinations arise from distinct failure modes rather than a single capability. Our results suggest that controlled reference worlds offer a scalable and reproducible path toward measuring and reducing hallucinations in modern language models.

Recently, remarkable progress has been made in automated task-solving through the use of multi-agent driven by large language models (LLMs). However, existing LLM-based multi-agent works primarily focus on solving simple dialogue tasks, and complex tasks are rarely studied, mainly due to the LLM hallucination problem. This type of hallucination becomes cascading when naively chaining multiple intelligent agents, resulting in a failure to effectively address complex problems. Therefore, we introduce MetaGPT, an innovative framework that incorporates efficient human workflows as a meta programming approach into LLM-based multi-agent collaboration. Specifically, MetaGPT encodes Standardized Operating Procedures (SOPs) into prompts to enhance structured coordination. Subsequently, it mandates modular outputs, empowering agents with domain expertise comparable to human professionals, to validate outputs and minimize compounded errors. In this way, MetaGPT leverages the assembly line paradigm to assign diverse roles to various agents, thereby establishing a framework that can effectively and cohesively deconstruct complex multi-agent collaborative problems. Our experiments on collaborative software engineering benchmarks demonstrate that MetaGPT generates more coherent and correct solutions compared to existing chat-based multi-agent systems. This highlights the potential of integrating human domain knowledge into multi-agent systems, thereby creating new opportunities to tackle complex real-world challenges. The GitHub repository of this project is publicly available on:https://github.com/geekan/MetaGPT.

Root cause analysis (RCA) is essential for diagnosing failures within complex software systems to ensure system reliability. The highly distributed and interdependent nature of modern cloud-based systems often complicates RCA efforts, particularly for multi-hop fault propagation, where symptoms appear far from their true causes. Recent advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) present new opportunities to enhance automated RCA. However, their practical value for RCA depends on the fidelity of reasoning and decision-making. Existing work relies on historical incident corpora, operates directly on high-volume telemetry beyond current LLM capacity, or embeds reasoning inside complex multi-agent pipelines -- conditions that obscure whether failures arise from reasoning itself or from peripheral design choices. We present a focused empirical evaluation that isolates an LLM's reasoning behavior. We design a controlled experimental framework that foregrounds the LLM by using a simplified experimental setting. We evaluate six LLMs under two agentic workflows (ReAct and Plan-and-Execute) and a non-agentic baseline on two real-world case studies (GAIA and OpenRCA). In total, we executed 48,000 simulated failure scenarios, totaling 228 days of execution time. We measure both root-cause accuracy and the quality of intermediate reasoning traces. We produce a labeled taxonomy of 16 common RCA reasoning failures and use an LLM-as-a-Judge for annotation. Our results clarify where current open-source LLMs succeed and fail in multi-hop RCA, quantify sensitivity to input data modalities, and identify reasoning failures that predict final correctness. Together, these contributions provide transparent and reproducible empirical results and a failure taxonomy to guide future work on reasoning-driven system diagnosis.

Organizations across finance, healthcare, transportation, content moderation, and critical infrastructure are rapidly deploying highly automated AI systems, yet they lack principled methods to quantify how increasing automation amplifies harm when failures occur. We propose a parsimonious Bayesian risk decomposition expressing expected loss as the product of three terms: the probability of system failure, the conditional probability that a failure propagates into harm given the automation level, and the expected severity of harm. This framework isolates a critical quantity -- the conditional probability that failures propagate into harm -- which captures execution and oversight risk rather than model accuracy alone. We develop complete theoretical foundations: formal proofs of the decomposition, a harm propagation equivalence theorem linking the harm propagation probability to observable execution controls, risk elasticity measures, efficient frontier analysis for automation policy, and optimal resource allocation principles with second-order conditions. We motivate the framework with an illustrative case study of the 2012 Knight Capital incident ($440M loss) as one instantiation of a broadly applicable failure pattern, and characterize the research design required to empirically validate the framework at scale across deployment domains. This work provides the theoretical foundations for a new class of deployment-focused risk governance tools for agentic and automated AI systems.

Large language models generate computationally expensive yet semantically void reasoning on beyond-capability tasks, creating risks where plausible-sounding but incorrect derivations mislead users. We characterize this futile reasoning phenomenon through systematic analysis, revealing universal capability overreach and systematic miscalibration between capability and behavior. The dominant failure mode is specious reasoning, which outputs look superficially valid but contain subtle errors, escalating with task difficulty. To address this, we introduce CaRL (Capability-aligned Reinforcement Learning), which aligns model behavior with capability boundaries through reward shaping that incentivizes refusal over futile reasoning and hindsight refusal augmentation that converts failures into refusal supervision. Experiments demonstrate a substantial reduction in futile reasoning while preserving performance across task difficulties, effectively achieving capability-aligned behavior without sacrificing utility. https://github.com/icip-cas/Knowing-When-to-Quit

Large language model (LLM) based multi-agent systems enable complex problem solving through coordinated reasoning and action, but their distributed structure also introduces new challenges in diagnosing system-level failures. When an execution fails, identifying which agent is responsible and at what point the trajectory first becomes irreversibly misdirected is difficult due to long-horizon interactions and tightly coupled agent behaviors. In this paper, we study the problem of failure localization in LLM-based multi-agent systems and present AgentLocate, a framework that attributes failures to both a specific agent and the earliest decisive step. AgentLocate combines an LLM-based judging mechanism with multi-perspective verification by independent evaluators, whose assessments are aggregated using a confidence-aware strategy. The resulting feedback is further used to adapt the judge through lightweight fine-tuning, improving attribution quality. We evaluate AgentLocate on two complementary benchmarks covering diverse tasks, agent configurations, and trajectory lengths. Experimental results show that AgentLocate consistently outperforms existing failure localization methods in identifying both responsible agents and failure steps, while remaining efficient in terms of token usage and running time.

This article conducts a literature review of current and future challenges in the use of artificial intelligence (AI) in cyber physical systems. The literature review is focused on identifying a conceptual framework for increasing resilience with AI through automation supporting both, a technical and human level. The methodology applied resembled a literature review and taxonomic analysis of complex internet of things (IoT) interconnected and coupled cyber physical systems. There is an increased attention on propositions on models, infrastructures and frameworks of IoT in both academic and technical papers. These reports and publications frequently represent a juxtaposition of other related systems and technologies (e.g. Industrial Internet of Things, Cyber Physical Systems, Industry 4.0 etc.). We review academic and industry papers published between 2010 and 2020. The results determine a new hierarchical cascading conceptual framework for analysing the evolution of AI decision-making in cyber physical systems. We argue that such evolution is inevitable and autonomous because of the increased integration of connected devices (IoT) in cyber physical systems. To support this argument, taxonomic methodology is adapted and applied for transparency and justifications of concepts selection decisions through building summary maps that are applied for designing the hierarchical cascading conceptual framework.

Agentic LLM coding tools compress long session histories into compaction summaries that subsequent sessions inherit as ground truth. This paper documents a failure mode in Claude Code where partial standard output from timed-out commands (exit code 143) is recorded in compaction summaries as confirmed results, propagating false positives across sessions and model versions without re-verification. The underlying mechanism is a conflation of observation and persistence, where information that appeared in the terminal is treated as equivalent to information written to durable storage. This finding extends the analysis of LLM self-evaluation failures reported in prior work on non-determinism in LLM-as-judge grading by showing that agentic tools exhibit analogous reliability deficits when reporting on their own operational outcomes. The failure has direct implications for any workflow that relies on agentic session continuity for data processing, scientific computation, or multi-step automation.

Fully decentralized learning enables the distribution of learning resources and decision-making capabilities across multiple user devices or nodes, and is rapidly gaining popularity due to its privacy-preserving and decentralized nature. Importantly, this crowdsourcing of the learning process allows the system to continue functioning even if some nodes are affected or disconnected. In a disaster scenario, communication infrastructure and centralized systems may be disrupted or completely unavailable, hindering the possibility of carrying out standard centralized learning tasks in these settings. Thus, fully decentralized learning can help in this case. However, transitioning from centralized to peer-to-peer communications introduces a dependency between the learning process and the topology of the communication graph among nodes. In a disaster scenario, even peer-to-peer communications are susceptible to abrupt changes, such as devices running out of battery or getting disconnected from others due to their position. In this study, we investigate the effects of various disruptions to peer-to-peer communications on decentralized learning in a disaster setting. We examine the resilience of a decentralized learning process when a subset of devices drop from the process abruptly. To this end, we analyze the difference between losing devices holding data, i.e., potential knowledge, vs. devices contributing only to the graph connectivity, i.e., with no data. Our findings on a Barabasi-Albert graph topology, where training data is distributed across nodes in an IID fashion, indicate that the accuracy of the learning process is more affected by a loss of connectivity than by a loss of data. Nevertheless, the network remains relatively robust, and the learning process can achieve a good level of accuracy.

Multi-agent reinforcement learning in dynamic social dilemmas commonly relies on parameter sharing to enable scalability. We show that in shared-policy Deep Q-Network learning, standard exploration can induce a robust and systematic collapse of cooperation even in environments where fully cooperative equilibria are stable and payoff dominant. Through controlled experiments, we demonstrate that shared DQN converges to stable but persistently low-cooperation regimes. This collapse is not caused by reward misalignment, noise, or insufficient training, but by a representational failure arising from partial observability combined with parameter coupling across heterogeneous agent states. Exploration-driven updates bias the shared representation toward locally dominant defection responses, which then propagate across agents and suppress cooperative learning. We confirm that the failure persists across network sizes, exploration schedules, and payoff structures, and disappears when parameter sharing is removed or when agents maintain independent representations. These results identify a fundamental failure mode of shared-policy MARL and establish structural conditions under which scalable learning architectures can systematically undermine cooperation. Our findings provide concrete guidance for the design of multi-agent learning systems in social and economic environments where collective behavior is critical.

A prevalent assumption in LLM agent deployment holds that more structured harnesses universally improve reliability, and that higher-capability models need proportionally less structural guidance -- together implying a monotone inverse relationship between model capability tier and optimal harness complexity. We test this hypothesis through a controlled 432-run experiment crossing six models across four capability tiers with three harness conditions (light, balanced, strict) on HEAT-24, a 24-task synthetic benchmark with git-based workspace verification. Our results refute the monotone inverse relationship on two fronts. First, for the frontier chat model evaluated (Gemini 2.5 Flash), increased harness verbosity lowers VTSR by 29-38 percentage points -- a harness-complexity paradox. Second, for the frontier reasoning model evaluated (Qwen3.5-122B, extended thinking enabled), strict harness achieves the highest VTSR (91.7%) and the lowest latency, the opposite of the prediction. Within the constrained tier, a 2B model (Gemma4:e2B) matches strong-open-tier stability at 91.7% across all harnesses. Because each tier is represented by a single model in this study, these results should be interpreted as model-specific observations; harness sensitivity appears non-monotone across the models evaluated, and depends critically on model type (chat vs. reasoning). We introduce a six-label failure taxonomy showing that format_violation dominates capable-model failures while wrong_file dominates low-capability failures, and we derive practical tier-aware harness selection guidelines.

Geospatial foundation models (GFMs) have been proposed as generalizable backbones for disaster response, land-cover mapping, food-security monitoring, and other high-stakes Earth-observation tasks. Yet the published work about these models does not give reviewers or users enough information to tell which model fits a given task. We argue that nobody knows what the current state of the art is in geospatial foundation models. The methods may be useful, but the GFM literature does not standardize evaluations, training and testing protocols, released weights, or pretraining controls well enough for anyone to compare or rank them. In a 152-paper audit, we find 46 cross-paper disagreements of at least 10 points for the same model, benchmark, and protocol; 94/126 papers with extractable pretraining data use a configuration no other paper uses; and 39% of GFM papers release no model weights. This lack of community standards can be solved. We propose six concrete expectations: named-license weight release, shared core evaluations, copied-versus-rerun baseline annotations, variance reporting, one shared evaluation harness, and data-vs-architecture-vs-algorithm controls. These gaps are a coordination failure, not a fault of any individual lab; the authors of this paper, like many others in the GFM community, have contributed to them. Rather than just critiquing the community, we aim to provide concrete steps toward a shared understanding of how to innovate GFMs.

Existing evaluation frameworks for large language models -- including HELM, MT-Bench, AgentBench, and BIG-bench -- are designed for controlled, single-session, lab-scale settings. They do not address the evaluation challenges that emerge when agentic AI systems operate continuously in production: compounding decision errors, tool failure cascades, non-deterministic output drift, and the absence of ground truth for long-horizon tasks. This paper makes three contributions. First, we present a taxonomy of seven failure modes unique to production agentic systems, each grounded in observations from systems operating at billion-event scale. Second, we demonstrate empirically where standard metrics -- ROUGE, BERTScore, accuracy/AUC, and the agentic benchmarks above -- fail to detect each failure mode. Third, we propose PAEF (Production Agentic Evaluation Framework), a five-dimension evaluation framework with an open-source reference implementation, designed for continuous evaluation on production traffic rather than episodic benchmark runs. Our analysis shows that standard metrics fail to detect four of the seven failure modes entirely and detect three others only after a lag of multiple evaluation cycles.

LLM-based multi-agent systems are increasingly deployed on long-horizon tasks, but a single decisive error is often accepted by downstream agents and cascades into trajectory-level failure. Existing work frames this as post-hoc failure attribution, diagnosing the responsible agent and step after the trajectory has ended. However, this paradigm forfeits any opportunity to intervene while trajectory is still unfolding. In this work, we introduce AgentForesight, a framework that reframes this problem as online auditing: at each step of an unfolding trajectory, an auditor observes only the current prefix and must either continue the run or alarm at the earliest decisive error, without access to future steps. To this end, we curate AFTraj-2K, a corpus of agentic trajectories across Coding, Math, and Agentic domains, in which safe trajectories are retained under a strict curation pipeline and unsafe trajectories are annotated at the step of their decisive error via consensus among multiple LLM judges. Built on that, we develop AgentForesight-7B, a compact online auditor trained with a coarse-to-fine reinforcement learning recipe that first equips it with a risk-anticipation prior at the failure boundary on adjacent safe/unsafe prefix pairs, then sharpens this prior into precise step-level localization under a three-axis reward jointly targeting the what, where, and who of an audit verdict. Across AFTraj-2K and an external Who\&When benchmark, AgentForesight-7B outperforms leading proprietary models, including GPT-4.1 and DeepSeek-V4-Pro, achieving up to +19.9% performance gain and 3times lower step localization error, opening the loop from post-hoc failures detection to enabling deployment-time intervention. Project page: https://zbox1005.github.io/agent-foresight/

Tool use enables large language models (LLMs) to perform complex tasks, and recent agentic reinforcement learning (RL) methods show promise for enhancing model capabilities. However, RL alone often leads to instability or limited gains in tool-use tasks. In our experiments, some models exhibit catastrophic collapse, where performance abruptly drops and tool-invocation structures fail. The analysis reveals that these failures stem from unexpected probability spikes in specific control tokens, disrupting structured execution, yet the underlying tool-use capability remains intact, merely obscured by specific formats. To address this, we systematically investigate a diverse set of supervisory signals, including off-policy supervision, hint-based guidance, erroneous example supervision, and others, applied under both synchronous and interleaved training schemes. We find that interleaving supervised fine-tuning (SFT) with RL substantially improves stability, but exhibits degraded performance under format and content out-of-distribution (OOD) evaluation. We also analyze the impact of learning rates and generalization across settings. These results highlight the importance of understanding RL failures and demonstrate how diverse supervisory signals can guide exploratory learning, enabling robust training of LLMs for complex, multi-step tool-use tasks. Our Code is available at https://github.com/hypasd-art/Tool-RL-Box.

Autonomous agent systems powered by Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated promising capabilities in automating complex tasks. However, current evaluations largely rely on success rates without systematically analyzing the interactions, communication mechanisms, and failure causes within these systems. To bridge this gap, we present a benchmark of 34 representative programmable tasks designed to rigorously assess autonomous agents. Using this benchmark, we evaluate three popular open-source agent frameworks combined with two LLM backbones, observing a task completion rate of approximately 50%. Through in-depth failure analysis, we develop a three-tier taxonomy of failure causes aligned with task phases, highlighting planning errors, task execution issues, and incorrect response generation. Based on these insights, we propose actionable improvements to enhance agent planning and self-diagnosis capabilities. Our failure taxonomy, together with mitigation advice, provides an empirical foundation for developing more robust and effective autonomous agent systems in the future.

Through a systematic review of academic literature, we propose a taxonomy of systemic risks associated with artificial intelligence (AI), in particular general-purpose AI. Following the EU AI Act's definition, we consider systemic risks as large-scale threats that can affect entire societies or economies. Starting with an initial pool of 1,781 documents, we analyzed 86 selected papers to identify 13 categories of systemic risks and 50 contributing sources. Our findings reveal a complex landscape of potential threats, ranging from environmental harm and structural discrimination to governance failures and loss of control. Key sources of systemic risk emerge from knowledge gaps, challenges in recognizing harm, and the unpredictable trajectory of AI development. The taxonomy provides a snapshot of current academic literature on systemic risks. This paper contributes to AI safety research by providing a structured groundwork for understanding and addressing the potential large-scale negative societal impacts of general-purpose AI. The taxonomy can inform policymakers in risk prioritization and regulatory development.

Large language model agents increasingly undertake long-horizon tasks in complex environments characterized by fragmented evidence, partially completed states, and dependencies across resources and artifacts. Existing agents may satisfy individual requirements while failing to maintain these relationships, producing locally correct but incomplete outcomes. These failures arise because task completion depends on relationships among environmental evidence, consequential decisions, and required effects. To address this completion gap, we propose Interlock, a framework for task synthesis that represents each task as a typed completion graph. Grounding edges connect public evidence to decisions, coupling hyperedges impose joint constraints across components, and realization edges connect decisions to all required downstream effects. Interlock compiles this graph into a resettable workspace, a public request, and an evaluation rubric. A source-coverage review checks whether the original requirements survive generation, while a public-input review checks whether the rubric is supported by the materials available to the solver. An agent-as-judge inspects execution artifacts and runs verification scripts, retaining trajectories judged to satisfy all mandatory requirements. To evaluate training utility, we fine-tune two Qwen3.6 backbones on their own accepted trajectories. Across the two backbones, training improves AutomationBench task pass rates by 4.00-4.50 percentage points, JobBench weighted scores by 3.20-6.64 points, and Harvey LAB criterion pass rates by 3.89-4.16 percentage points. These results demonstrate the training utility of the synthesized experience across external task environments.

Multi-agent systems (MAS) are critical for automating complex tasks, yet their practical deployment is severely hampered by the challenge of failure attribution. Current diagnostic tools, which rely on statistical correlations, are fundamentally inadequate; on challenging benchmarks like Who\&When, state-of-the-art methods achieve less than 15\% accuracy in locating the root-cause step of a failure. To address this critical gap, we introduce the first failure attribution framework for MAS grounded in multi-granularity causal inference. Our approach makes two key technical contributions: (1) a performance causal inversion principle, which correctly models performance dependencies by reversing the data flow in execution logs, combined with Shapley values to accurately assign agent-level blame; (2) a novel causal discovery algorithm, CDC-MAS, that robustly identifies critical failure steps by tackling the non-stationary nature of MAS interaction data. The framework's attribution results directly fuel an automated optimization loop, generating targeted suggestions whose efficacy is validated via counterfactual simulations. Evaluations on the Who\&When and TRAIL benchmarks demonstrate a significant leap in performance. Our method achieves up to 36.2\% step-level accuracy. Crucially, the generated optimizations boost overall task success rates by an average of 22.4\%. This work provides a principled and effective solution for debugging complex agent interactions, paving the way for more reliable and interpretable multi-agent systems.

Large language model-driven multi-agent systems (LLM-MAS) excel at complex tasks, yet unreliable agents remain a key bottleneck to system-level reliability. Automatic failure attribution is therefore critical, but existing approaches, such as direct prediction of agent-error pairs and agent-first failure attribution, rely on local logs of agents and miss global failures that only manifest over full interaction trajectories, such as cross-step inconsistencies and inter-agent coordination errors. Moreover, directly predicting failures induces a large combinatorial search space, hindering fine-grained attribution. To address these challenges, we propose VerifyMAS, a hypothesis verification framework for agent failure attribution. Instead of directly predicting faulty agents and error types, VerifyMAS formulates and verifies failure hypotheses against full trajectories. This verification-based approach decomposes attribution into trajectory-level error validation and fine-grained agent localization, providing an error-first attribution approach that captures global failure patterns while substantially reducing the search space. We further introduce a hypothesis-based data construction strategy grounded in a structured error taxonomy and fine-tune a specialized LLM verifier model for trajectory-level failure verification and agent attribution. Experiments on Aegis-Bench and Who&When show that VerifyMAS consistently improves diverse backbone models, including open-source Qwen and API-based GPT models, outperforming prior methods without sacrificing inference efficiency for long multi-agent trajectories.

On-policy distillation (OPD) adapts diffusion models by querying a teacher along trajectories generated by the current student, but how it should behave under classifier-free guidance (CFG), a default component of modern diffusion systems, remains poorly understood. Existing OPD methods naturally extend velocity matching to the CFG-composed prediction, directly matching teacher and student guided velocities. We show that this objective is under-identified at the branch level: positive- and negative-branch errors can compensate in the guided prediction. Through two contrasting cases, we find that naive matching remains effective under shared negative conditioning, where both branch errors decrease jointly. When the model's native CFG schema retains privileged information in the teacher's negative branch that is unavailable to the student, however, this joint reduction breaks down and the composed objective induces antagonistic branch-error dynamics, reducing the positive-branch error while increasing the negative-branch error. We term this failure mode Negative Branch Asymmetry (NBA). To address NBA, we introduce Positive--Direction Matching (PDM), a branch-aware OPD objective that separately constrains the positive prediction and the CFG conditional direction. We apply PDM to dense-to-sparse video control, where naive guided matching is highly sensitive to inference guidance scales, while branch-aware supervision enables more robust and effective knowledge transfer.

Failure attribution in multi-agent systems -- pinpointing the exact step where a decisive error occurs -- is a critical yet unsolved challenge. Current methods treat this as a pattern recognition task over long conversation logs, leading to critically low step-level accuracy (below 17\%), which renders them impractical for debugging complex systems. Their core weakness is a fundamental inability to perform robust counterfactual reasoning: to determine if correcting a single action would have actually averted the task failure. To bridge this counterfactual inference gap, we introduce Abduct-Act-Predict (A2P) Scaffolding, a novel agent framework that transforms failure attribution from pattern recognition into a structured causal inference task. A2P explicitly guides a large language model through a formal three-step reasoning process within a single inference pass: (1) Abduction, to infer the hidden root causes behind an agent's actions; (2) Action, to define a minimal corrective intervention; and (3) Prediction, to simulate the subsequent trajectory and verify if the intervention resolves the failure. This structured approach leverages the holistic context of the entire conversation while imposing a rigorous causal logic on the model's analysis. Our extensive experiments on the Who\&When benchmark demonstrate its efficacy. On the Algorithm-Generated dataset, A2P achieves 47.46\% step-level accuracy, a 2.85times improvement over the 16.67\% of the baseline. On the more complex Hand-Crafted dataset, it achieves 29.31\% step accuracy, a 2.43times improvement over the baseline's 12.07\%. By reframing the problem through a causal lens, A2P Scaffolding provides a robust, verifiable, and significantly more accurate solution for automated failure attribution. Ours code are released at https://github.com/ResearAI/A2P.

Benign fine-tuning severely weakens the safety alignment of large language models (LLMs), so we study why refusal behavior is so fragile. While prior work often attributes this failure to gradient conflict, we propose a fundamentally different Fisher-geometric explanation: safety Fisher is low-rank, and alignment makes the safety geometry flatter while preserving an output-routing pathway. After 100 benign fine-tuning examples, this pathway is selectively re-sharpened in output-side MLP modules, explaining the asymmetric fragility: safety can collapse to high attack success rates, while general utility degrades mildly. The routing view also explains why few safety examples can restore refusal behavior, indicating that internal safety-relevant representations are preserved. Finally, we show that LoRA and ASAM mitigate early collapse by suppressing output-side sharpness, but their protection weakens at larger fine-tuning scales. Overall, safety failure is best understood as a disruption of a low-rank output-routing mechanism

Vision-language-action (VLA) models provide a promising paradigm for scalable robotic manipulation, yet their reliance on success-only behavioral cloning leaves them brittle; lacking corrective training signals, minor execution errors rapidly compound into unrecoverable, out-of-distribution failures. To address this limitation, we propose Adaptive Failure-Informed Learning (AFIL), an end-to-end framework that leverages failure trajectories as adaptive negative guidance for diffusion- and flow-based VLA policies. AFIL uses a pretrained VLA to generate failure rollouts online, avoiding the need for handcrafted failure-mode design or human-in-the-loop recovery. It then jointly trains Dual Action Generators (DAGs) for successful and failed behaviors while sharing a common vision-language backbone, enabling efficient failure-aware policy learning with limited parameter overhead. During sampling, the failure generator adaptively steers action generation away from failure-prone regions and toward more reliable success modes, with guidance strength determined by the per-diffusion-step distance between success and failure distributions. Experiments across in-domain and out-of-domain robotic manipulation tasks, covering both short- and long-horizon settings, show that AFIL consistently improves task success rates and robustness over existing VLA baselines, demonstrating its effectiveness, efficiency, and generality.

In January 2026, the open-source agent framework OpenClaw and the agent-only social network Moltbook produced a large-scale dataset of autonomous AI-to-AI interaction, attracting six academic publications within fourteen days. This study conducts a multivocal literature review of that ecosystem and presents ClawdLab, an open-source platform for autonomous scientific research, as a design science response to the architectural failure modes identified. The literature documents emergent collective phenomena, security vulnerabilities spanning 131 agent skills and over 15,200 exposed control panels, and five recurring architectural patterns. ClawdLab addresses these failure modes through hard role restrictions, structured adversarial critique, PI-led governance, multi-model orchestration, and domain-specific evidence requirements encoded as protocol constraints that ground validation in computational tool outputs rather than social consensus; the architecture provides emergent Sybil resistance as a structural consequence. A three-tier taxonomy distinguishes single-agent pipelines, predetermined multi-agent workflows, and fully decentralised systems, analysing why leading AI co-scientist platforms remain confined to the first two tiers. ClawdLab's composable third-tier architecture, in which foundation models, capabilities, governance, and evidence requirements are independently modifiable, enables compounding improvement as the broader AI ecosystem advances.

AI agents are increasingly used to solve complex, multi-step tasks, but existing multi-agent frameworks remain brittle as workflows grow in scale and depth. Small errors at intermediate stages can propagate through agent interactions, while insufficient grounding and weak verification mechanisms further limit reliability. We present Meta-Agent, a two-phase framework that automatically constructs and executes specialized multi-agent systems from natural-language task descriptions. In the construction phase, a task planner decomposes a problem into a directed acyclic graph of agent specifications with explicit input/output contracts and verification criteria. A web search module grounds each specification with external evidence, and a code generation module produces system prompts and tool configurations. A construction-time verification stage then validates generated artifacts and triggers targeted regeneration when failures are detected. In the execution phase, a coordinator dispatches subtasks across the agent graph while execution-time verification gates intermediate outputs. We further introduce a three-level error attribution mechanism that distinguishes local, upstream, and structural failures, enabling targeted recovery strategies ranging from localized retries to partial re-execution and re-decomposition. We evaluate Meta-Agent across coding, contextual learning, and open-ended reasoning tasks. Experiments against strong multi-agent baselines and ablation studies demonstrate consistent improvements in task success rate, error recovery, and workflow stability. The results highlight the importance of tightly integrating planning, grounding, and verification for building reliable multi-agent systems.

Voice agents must call tools and hold multi-turn dialogue entirely through speech, yet the dominant paradigm trains them in text. Existing frameworks either cascade TTS and ASR around a proprietary voice API, where gradients cannot flow and per-call cost makes on-policy reinforcement learning prohibitive, or stay in text: they measure voice agents but cannot improve them. We present SpeechGym, an audio-native agentic environment in which two omni-modal models converse in native audio, with no external ASR or TTS and no API boundary, over the unmodified tasks, tools and success check of an established text agentic benchmark, so that the interaction modality is the only variable and the loop stays local and trainable end to end. Audio agentic capability does not follow from audio understanding. The failures speech introduces are perceptual rather than reasoning deficits: the agent picks the right tool and the right argument slot but fills it with a value misheard from the waveform, and that single error cascades into a failed call, a retry of the same call, and a wasted step budget. A second failure is behavioural: under an insistent caller the agent performs an unauthorised write and ends the episode believing it helped. Both are trainable, because the environment labels them for free: a call with a misheard argument fails against the database while a correct one succeeds. The obstacle is sparsity, not signal. Outcome-only GRPO is gradient-starved here, since almost every rollout group fails identically, while a per-turn process reward crediting each successful tool call restores variance to nearly every group. Trained this way, the agent transfers with no further tuning to an independently implemented voice benchmark, more than doubling task success and carrying an open-weights model from last place to second on that leaderboard, while using fewer turns and tokens than before training.

As browser-use agents improve, benchmarks keep pace by collecting new tasks, websites, and applications, often making tasks longer or more novel. This makes difficulty expensive to refresh and difficult to control: when many aspects change at once, it is unclear what actually makes a task challenging. We instead construct challenging instances from tasks agents already solve, turning difficulty into a programmable property of the environment. BreakingWeb pairs every base task with an intervention condition that preserves the user instruction, latent target, and backend success criterion while changing the environment at different web stack layers. Each intervention is deterministic, detectable, and recoverable, and is annotated with the cognitive primitive it primarily loads. The benchmark contains 519 clean/intervention task pairs across seven self-hosted websites and 29 intervention families, all graded against outcomes. We evaluate six strong browser-use agents, three GUI-only agents that see only screenshots, and humans. The construction is effective: interventions cut agent pass rate by 22.9% on average and overturn nearly half of the tasks each agent solves cleanly, whereas humans lose 10.0% on a first attempt and 5.7% after one familiarisation attempt. The dominant failure is belief failure: 75% of the six agents' failures end with a declared success although the required change never happened. Our code, data and environment are publicly available at www.breakingweb.app.

How do multi-turn reasoning systems fail? The expected answer is logical contradiction, in which the system's maintained state becomes unsatisfiable. We show that the dominant mode is instead satisfiable drift, where the internal state stays consistent while the returned answer silently violates prior commitments. We build DRIFT-Bench (Decomposing Reasoning Into Failure Types), a solver-instrumented benchmark of 816 test problems across three constraint domains, and evaluate four methods on it across four open-weight models (8B-120B parameters). MUS-Repair, which feeds minimal unsatisfiable subsets back to the generator, is strongest in every setting (+1.8 to +15.0 pp over the best non-MUS baseline). But the central finding is what repair leaves behind. After structured feedback, models rarely contradict themselves. They forget. Residual errors are 98-100% satisfiable drift across all settings, while contradiction drops to near zero. Reliable multi-turn systems must separately validate that the returned answer respects the maintained state. Code is available at https://github.com/kaons-research/drift-bench.

Software engineers develop, fine-tune, and deploy deep learning (DL) models. They use and re-use models in a variety of development frameworks and deploy them on a range of runtime environments. In this diverse ecosystem, engineers use DL model converters to move models from frameworks to runtime environments. However, errors in converters can compromise model quality and disrupt deployment. The failure frequency and failure modes of DL model converters are unknown. In this paper, we conduct the first failure analysis on DL model converters. Specifically, we characterize failures in model converters associated with ONNX (Open Neural Network eXchange). We analyze past failures in the ONNX converters in two major DL frameworks, PyTorch and TensorFlow. The symptoms, causes, and locations of failures (for N=200 issues), and trends over time are also reported. We also evaluate present-day failures by converting 8,797 models, both real-world and synthetically generated instances. The consistent result from both parts of the study is that DL model converters commonly fail by producing models that exhibit incorrect behavior: 33% of past failures and 8% of converted models fell into this category. Our results motivate future research on making DL software simpler to maintain, extend, and validate.

We present Cascadia, a system for serving large language models on fleets of commodity Intel AIPCs using their CPU, integrated-GPU, and NPU resources. Every node embeds ingress, scheduling, and execution; inference requests require no dedicated routing control plane. Nodes join a libp2p QUIC mesh using CA-issued ed25519 admission certificates, gossip signed capabilities, exchange live load over direct peer streams, and route OpenAI-compatible requests to eligible peers. An operator-run certificate authority handles admission and fleet management outside the inference path. Three serving modes share one interface: whole-model execution on one node, load-balanced replicas, and pipeline-sharded chains using the compilation and speculative decoding mechanism of our companion paper. Optional KV-cache mobility reuses compatible conversation prefixes after a routing move, with cold recomputation on a miss. Signed response receipts and hash-chained logs support provenance and audit. A three-node Phi-3.5-mini NPU testbed delivered 3.10x the response throughput of its one-node configuration under ten concurrent requests; a separate four-node deployment recorded 4.06x the throughput of direct single-node serving. Paired latency observations, runtime measurements, and internal functional checks characterize the tested configurations. We compare Cascadia with IBM, Nutanix, VMware, and HPE platforms on deployment footprint, hardware requirements, scheduling, scaling, licensing, and trust, using vendor documentation. The paper repository provides benchmark scripts, curated measurements, and a claim-to-evidence map.

A common assumption holds that enough observational and interventional data, given to a strong enough predictor, suffices. We report a failure mode that contradicts it. Across hundreds of structural causal models, on identified quantities a strong predictor and a Bayesian baseline both succeed, but on unidentified quantities (the couplings between counterfactual worlds) the predictor collapses to a point, on 28% of models to one no valid model can produce, while the truth is an admissible interval more data never narrows. The gap is structural: prediction cannot represent uncertainty over counterfactual couplings. We cast a world model as a single positive semidefinite coupling kernel K(T,T') over admissible worlds, whose diagonal is the ordinary posterior (what a predictor recovers) and whose off-diagonal is the cross-world coupling it cannot, which every counterfactual reads. The paper is the theory of that off-diagonal. It is real: two states with identical posteriors differ on a cross-world query, and the off-diagonal is the coupling that fixes counterfactuals. It can be bounded: positive semidefiniteness is partial-identifying information the marginals lack, and enforcing it bounds counterfactuals in polynomial time where the exact response-type program is intractable. Logical structure sharpens it: ontology axioms tighten the bound by up to a third, propagating to couplings they never touch. It can be acquired: targeted scars, constraints learned from encountered infeasibilities, close the gap several times faster than untargeted ones. Its full reconstruction is approximate counting of the admissible worlds, tractable below the Sly-Sun threshold and inapproximable above; we do not claim to beat the worst case.

As autonomous coding agents become capable of handling increasingly long-horizon tasks, they have gradually demonstrated the potential to complete end-to-end software development. Although existing benchmarks have recently evolved from localized code editing to from-scratch project generation, they remain confined to structurally simplified, single-stack applications. Consequently, they fail to capture the heterogeneous environments, full-stack orchestration, and system-level complexity of real enterprise Software as a Service (SaaS) systems, leaving a critical gap in assessing agents under realistic engineering constraints. To fill this gap, we introduce SaaSBench, the first benchmark designed to explore the boundaries of AI agents in enterprise SaaS engineering. Spanning 30 complex tasks across 6 SaaS domains with 5,370 validation nodes, it incorporates 8 programming languages, 6 databases, and 13 frameworks to meticulously mirror real-world software heterogeneity. Furthermore, we design a dependency-aware hybrid evaluation paradigm tailored for complex systems with long horizons and multi-component coupling, enabling fine-grained, reproducible assessment. Crucially, our extensive experiments reveal a striking insight: the primary bottleneck for state-of-the-art agents is not generating isolated code logic, but successfully configuring and integrating a multi-component system. Over 95\% of task failures occur before agents even reach deep business logic, with models often falling victim to overconfidence and prematurely halting during foundational system setup, or getting trapped in ineffective debugging loops. We hope SaaSBench serves as a practical and challenging testbed to drive the evolution of reliable, system-level coding agents. The code is available at https://github.com/ShadeCloak/SaaSbench.

On-policy distillation trains a language model on its own generations while a teacher scores them token by token. It combines the dense supervision of imitation learning with the on-policy sampling of reinforcement learning. But it requires a second, larger model to act as teacher. On-Policy Self-Distillation (OPSD) removes that cost. The teacher is the model itself, conditioned on privileged information the student will not have at test time, such as a reference solution, a plan, or environment feedback. The teacher is no stronger than the student, only better informed. Early results were promising, with accuracy comparable to reinforcement learning at a fraction of the generated tokens. But the same asymmetry that produces the signal also biases it. One failure mode now dominates the field: collapse, the progressive narrowing of the set of reasoning paths the model can produce. Collapse is not specific to OPSD, though privileged information aggravates it. This review treats collapse as a symptom governed by three levers: (i) where the signal is applied, that is, how tokens are weighted; (ii) what the teacher is shown, that is, the nature of the privileged information; and (iii) when the signal changes, that is, the teacher's dynamics and the decay of guidance. We restrict our scope to mathematical reasoning, where the method originated and where its failure modes are best documented. We report no new experiments. The contribution is structural: a shared vocabulary for phenomena named differently across papers, and a clear line between what is settled and what is still disputed.

Tool-using automation systems, from scripts and CI bots to agentic assistants, fail in recurring patterns. Common failures include unsafe side effects, invalid arguments, uncontrolled retries, and leakage of sensitive outputs. Many mitigations are model-centric and prompt-dependent, so they are brittle and do not generalize to non-LLM callers. We present Policy-First Tooling, a model-agnostic permission layer that mediates tool invocation through explicit constraints, risk-aware gating, recovery controls, and auditable explanations. The paper contributes a compact policy DSL, a runtime enforcement architecture with actionable rationale and fix hints, and a reproducible benchmark based on trace replay with controlled fault and misuse injection. In 225 controlled runs across five policy packs and three fault profiles, stricter packs improve violation prevention from 0.000 in P0 to 0.681 in P4, while task success drops from 0.356 to 0.067. Retry amplification decreases from 3.774 in P0 to 1.378 in P4, and leakage recall reaches 0.875 under injected secret outputs. These results make safety to utility trade-offs explicit and measurable.

Disasters are inevitable and increasingly costly, and effective response depends on querying structured tabular data: precise, information-dense records of hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and lifeline infrastructure that underpin disaster management. Current text-to-SQL methods enable natural-language access to such tables but transfer poorly to the disaster domain, where queries span heterogeneous geospatial schemas and require reasoning over causal relations. We introduce DisasterLex, a knowledge-graph-mediated framework that inserts an Expert Knowledge Graph (EKG) of curated concepts and typed causal edges between the user query and the database, bridged to schema by concept-to-table links. The orchestration runs four stages (identifying query entities, routing to the operational domain, planning over causal edges, and grounding the SQL), restricting the schema passed to the model at each step. We instantiate it on a disaster-analytics database (36 geospatial tables, 150 columns) with an EKG of 107 concepts, 117 causal edges, and 52 concept-to-schema links, evaluated on a 75-query test set. On all seven base models spanning proprietary and open-weight families, DisasterLex beats four state-of-the-art baselines (LightRAG, HippoRAG 2, ReFoRCE, CHESS) by 1.4x to 2.75x, with absolute scores of 1.65 to 3.56 (of 5.0). Error analysis shows baseline failures cluster in routing and multi-table SQL composition, the operations our orchestration explicitly addresses. Code, data, and the EKG artifact are available at https://github.com/YimingXiao98/DisasterLex and on Zenodo at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20388029.

LLM-based autonomous agents have demonstrated strong capabilities in reasoning, planning, and tool use, yet remain limited when tasks require sustained coordination across roles, tools, and environments. Multi-agent systems address this through structured collaboration among specialized agents, but tighter coordination also amplifies a less explored risk: errors can propagate across agents and interaction rounds, producing failures that are difficult to diagnose and rarely translate into structural self-improvement. Existing surveys cover individual agent capabilities, multi-agent collaboration, or agent self-evolution separately, leaving the causal dependencies among them unexamined. This survey provides a unified review organized around four causally linked stages, which we term the LIFE progression: Lay the capability foundation, Integrate agents through collaboration, Find faults through attribution, and Evolve through autonomous self-improvement. For each stage, we provide systematic taxonomies and formally characterize the dependencies between adjacent stages, revealing how each stage both depends on and constrains the next. Beyond synthesizing existing work, we identify open challenges at stage boundaries and propose a cross-stage research agenda for closed-loop multi-agent systems capable of continuously diagnosing failures, reorganizing structures, and refining agent behaviors, extending current coordination frameworks toward more self-organizing forms of collective intelligence. By bridging these previously fragmented research threads, this survey aims to offer both a systematic reference and a conceptual roadmap toward autonomous, self-improving multi-agent intelligence.

Reliably transferring specialized human knowledge from text into large language models remains a fundamental challenge in artificial intelligence. Fine-tuning on domain corpora has enabled substantial capability gains, but the process operates without feedback: when a model fails on a domain task, there is no method to diagnose what is deficient in the training data, and the only recourse is to add more data indiscriminately. Here we show that when a structured knowledge representation extracted from the source corpus serves as the shared foundation for both training data and evaluation, the complete data-engineering lifecycle maps onto the software development lifecycle in a precise and operative way: training data becomes source code specifying what the model should learn, model training becomes compilation, benchmarking becomes unit testing, and failure-driven data repair becomes debugging. Under this correspondence, model failures decompose into concept-level gaps and reasoning-chain breaks that can be traced back to specific deficiencies in the data and repaired through targeted patches, with each repair cycle producing consistent improvements across model scales and architectures without degrading general capabilities. We formalize this principle as Programming with Data and instantiate it across sixteen disciplines spanning the natural sciences, engineering, biomedicine, and the social sciences, releasing a structured knowledge base, benchmark suite, and training corpus as open resources. By demonstrating that the relationship between training data and model behaviour is structurally traceable and systematically repairable, this work establishes a principled foundation for the reliable engineering of human expertise into language models.

Reinforcement learning is a natural way to post-train LLM agents for long-horizon interactive tasks judged only by end-of-task verification, yet a shared belief holds that outcome-only RL soon hits a ceiling on small open models. Recent work therefore compensates around the training with denser rewards, SFT priors, skill libraries, curated memory, or multi-agent orchestration. We argue the ceiling is an artifact of two failures of common practice. Signal starvation: group-relative RL with sparse outcome-only rewards yields a gradient only when a task's rollout group mixes successes and failures, so under-scaled exploration silences exactly the hardest, most instructive tasks. Policy drift: squeezing many updates out of a small task pool degrades the policy itself, as an unanchored objective lets the sampling distribution collapse exactly when saturation has already made informative groups rare. We present CANOPY (Coverage-ANchored On-PolicY RL), a minimalist protocol attacking both directly: scale same-task exploration until the natural signal reappears, keep every update on-policy, KL-anchored, and confined to the agent's own action tokens, then cash in an enlarged interaction budget at test time. On AppWorld, a long-horizon interactive coding benchmark, a Qwen3-14B policy trained with CANOPY through environment interaction alone--without task-specific supervision, auxiliary credit signals, or elaborate agent scaffolding--topped the public leaderboard (Feb. 2026; Test-Normal TGC 86.9, Test-Challenge 67.6), and the same design principles lift Qwen3.5-9B on SWE-bench Verified by 16.6 points. Agentic RL alone thus internalizes long-horizon capability directly into a small open model; we plan to release the complete training stack at https://github.com/AlibabaResearch/SignalCoverageRL.