Daily Papers

We numerically investigate some properties of unbalanced St\"{u}ckelberg holographic superconductors, by considering backreaction effects of fields on the background geometry. More precisely, we study the impacts of the chemical potential mismatch and St\"{u}ckelberg mechanism on the condensation and conductivity types (electrical, spin, mixed, thermo-electric, thermo-spin and thermal conductivity). Our results show that the St\"{u}ckelberg's model parameters C_{alpha} and alpha not only have significant impacts on the phase transition, but also affect the conductivity pseudo-gap and the strength of conductivity fluctuations. Moreover, the effects of these parameters on a system will be gradually reduced as the imbalance grows. We also find that the influence of alpha on the amplitude of conductivity fluctuations depends on the magnitude of the both C_{alpha} and deltamu/mu in the electric and thermal conductivity cases. This results in that increasing alpha can damp the conductivity fluctuations of an unbalanced system in contrast to balanced ones.

Between 1972 and 1975, Jacob Bekenstein proposed that black holes possess entropy proportional to their horizon area, and Stephen Hawking derived this relationship from semiclassical quantum field theory in curved spacetime, predicting thermal radiation from black holes. These developments established black hole thermodynamics as a formal framework connecting general relativity, quantum mechanics, and statistical physics. However, this synthesis rests on approximations whose validity remains unproven in regimes where quantum gravitational effects become important. This article provides a detailed overview of the historical development from 1972 to 1975 and surveys modern proposals, such as the holographic principle and gravitational path integrals. We highlight persistent theoretical challenges, including the information paradox, the trans-Planckian problem, backreaction effects, and the absence of experimental verification. The work concludes by identifying which aspects of black hole thermodynamics are well-established and which remain speculative or fundamentally incomplete.

These lectures give an introduction to the theory of holographic superconductors. These are superconductors that have a dual gravitational description using gauge/gravity duality. After introducing a suitable gravitational theory, we discuss its properties in various regimes: the probe limit, the effects of backreaction, the zero temperature limit, and the addition of magnetic fields. Using the gauge/gravity dictionary, these properties reproduce many of the standard features of superconductors. Some familiarity with gauge/gravity duality is assumed. A list of open problems is included at the end.

We study the electromagnetic field equations on an arbitrary quantum curved background in the semiclassical approximation of Loop Quantum Gravity. The effective interaction hamiltonian for the Maxwell and gravitational fields is obtained and the corresponding field equations, which can be expressed as a modified wave equation for the Maxwell potential, are derived. We use these results to analyze electromagnetic wave propagation on a quantum Robertson-Walker space time and show that Lorentz Invariance is not preserved. The formalism developed can be applied to the case where back reaction effects on the metric due to the electromagnetic field are taken into account, leading to non covariant field equations.

A model under pushback can correct itself, capitulate, or hold, and one flip rate counts a correction and a capitulation alike. Using SycoLens, a modular replay protocol, we test how user pressure and evaluation settings shape measured flip rates. Each measurement is one stateless replay of an item, a committed answer, and one scripted user line in a fixed form. Every effect is read against a matched control with the line deleted. Pushback wording, committed text, answer format, boundary distance, and ground truth become factors of one instrument; earlier instruments vary one to three of them. Across eleven frontier models from three providers and about 760,000 controlled replays, which models look sycophantic depends on how the user pushes back. Lines that assert the opposite verdict and lines that challenge the answer without asserting one rank the models almost unrelatedly. Flip effects grow several-fold near a model's boundary, yet items answered identically in every screening draw still carry about half of the most-affected totals. On arithmetic tasks where the truth is known, one model re-derives and corrects itself under pressure while another abandons correct answers without written work. On the model tested, a planted derivation lowers release of the answer it argues for, true or wrong, where a bare stated value does not; the wrong answer is corrected much more often than the true one is abandoned. Under a yes/no readout the rankings come closer, entangled with a pressure-induced shift toward "no". One score per model therefore compares different behaviours across models and benchmarks. We condense these dependencies into a reporting profile; the instrument, records, and analyses will be released upon publication.

Interventional counterfactuals evaluate statements such as "had A been a" by replacing the assignment for A while keeping the unit's exogenous background fixed. Backtracking counterfactuals reverse this logic: they preserve the structural assignments and instead vary background conditions across worlds. This semantics is natural for diagnostic explanation, but full backtracking may be too permissive because every exogenous coordinate can vary. We introduce scope-restricted backtracking counterfactuals, in which the modeler specifies which coordinates may vary while the remainder are shared across worlds. The scope determines the admissible carriers of the contrast, while a cross-world kernel governs the plausibility of their alternative values. We present model-based inference for general scope-restricted backtracking counterfactuals, derive sharp marginal bounds for a specified explanatory query, and establish frontier and compatibility conditions under which this explanatory query admits a modified-value policy representation. A linear-Gaussian example distinguishes local-noise, ancestor, irrelevant-noise, and infeasible explanations across scopes, while an application to the UCI Adult benchmark illustrates kernel specification, sensitivity, and how much of the explanation is carried by the cross-world coupling itself.

Even though neural networks enjoy widespread use, they still struggle to learn the basic laws of physics. How might we endow them with better inductive biases? In this paper, we draw inspiration from Hamiltonian mechanics to train models that learn and respect exact conservation laws in an unsupervised manner. We evaluate our models on problems where conservation of energy is important, including the two-body problem and pixel observations of a pendulum. Our model trains faster and generalizes better than a regular neural network. An interesting side effect is that our model is perfectly reversible in time.

Standard-Model warm inflation (SMWI) makes QCD the microscopic origin of inflationary dissipation, so the real-time response of the gauge plasma enters the cosmological prediction. We show that a slowly relaxing gauge-helicity response cannot, in general, be absorbed into an effective friction coefficient and must instead remain dynamical. We therefore evolve the quark axial densities and a matched hard-helicity mode, with QCD sphalerons and an effective 2leftrightarrow3 channel generating both charge transfer and correlated stochastic sources in the full perturbation covariance system. The resulting backreaction is substantial but mainly indirect: gauge-helicity screening can reduce the warm dissipation ratio by an order-one fraction on the strong branch, while the 2leftrightarrow3 channel contributes only 0.2%-0.7% of the zero-density sphaleron friction directly, shifting the amplitude-normalized trajectory in both n_s and r_{rm vac}. The relevant trajectories, however, lack a parametrically broad hard-soft hierarchy and extend beyond strict linear response. The predictions should therefore be understood within the stated local Gaussian transport closure; a parameter-free Standard-Model (SM) result requires finite-affinity real-time SU(3) drift, susceptibility, and noise kernels.

Conditional generative models are increasingly used for scientific prediction beyond the direct training support. Yet scientific questions often concern whether one intervention changes the effect of another. Such interactions can be of primary interest while explaining little of the total variation, allowing models to appear accurate overall without recovering the relevant scientific effect. It remains unclear how these models learn interactions and when these successfully extrapolate to unseen conditions. We therefore study interaction recovery in flow-matching models using a physiological time-series simulator, drug dose-response data, combinatorial cell perturbations, and molecular conformer generations, where we separate recovery from hallucinated interaction structure. In the controlled setting, individual effects are learned much earlier than interactions and models hallucinate interactions where none exist. Across settings, we find qualitatively different generalization problems, with successful prediction depending on whether condition structure continues from observed to held-out targets. When it does, interactions are recoverable. If not, models can generate plausible responses while missing the interaction. We furthermore find that hallucinations increase as targets become less identifiable, and that successful interaction recovery in output space can fail under nonlinear readouts. Finally, we show that aggregate fidelity metrics can conceal whether models learn and extrapolate interactions.

We investigate inflationary magnetogenesis with massive vector fields, including charged scalar particle production via the Schwinger effect and its backreaction on the background electric energy density. Initially neglecting the Schwinger effect, we quantize the vector field and solve the equations of motion for transverse and longitudinal modes, computing the energy momentum tensor. We then incorporate the backreaction of the electric energy density and show that the longitudinal energy density is subleading compared to the electric background. Since the electric energy density dominates the magnetic contribution, we can treat the former separately from the perturbative contributions. We adopt this approach when studying particle production via the Schwinger effect, assuming that its backreaction acts only on the background electric energy density. The latter is computed using a classical background electromagnetic field minimally coupled to a quantum complex scalar field. The magnetic and longitudinal components are instead described through quantum fields. In this framework, the Schwinger production affects only the electric energy density, as long as it remains dominant compared to the other components. As a consistency check, we verify that for a null coupling constant we recover the same electric energy density as obtained within the fully quantum electromagnetic description. Finally, we show that for non-null coupling constants Schwinger particle production drastically reduces the electric energy density during the final stages of inflation.

Causal inference is often focused on average effects, which can hide important aspects of the effect distributions. Here we consider the entire posterior effects distribution by estimating full counterfactual outcome distributions. We propose a methodology for inference on counterfactual distributions which builds upon the martingale posterior framework of Fong et al. (2023). This provides a highly flexible approach to estimating densities, distribution functions, and derived quantities such as quantiles, which coherently quantifies the epistemic uncertainty on any target estimand of interest. As the predictive recursions are based on an underlying nonparametric model (a Dirichlet process mixture model), our method naturally inherits robustness with respect to restrictive parametric assumptions. In addition, implementation of our method is typically very fast. This approach can be applied to marginal or conditional counterfactual distributions and is easily extended to an instrumental variables setup. Using the concept of almost conditionally identically distributed random variables, we prove convergence of the martingale posterior inference on the counterfactual outcome distributions for the causal models considered in the paper. We illustrate our approach on both simulated and real data. Using the latter, we investigate the effect of zinc lozenges on common cold duration, the impact of vitamin A supplementation on children's survival rates with one-sided non-compliance (analysed in Imbens and Rubin, 1997a) and the effect of job training (LaLonde, 1986).

Earth system models suffer from various structural and parametric errors in their representation of nonlinear, multi-scale processes, leading to uncertainties in their long-term projections. The effects of many of these errors (particularly those due to fast physics) can be quantified in short-term simulations, e.g., as differences between the predicted and observed states (analysis increments). With the increase in the availability of high-quality observations and simulations, learning nudging from these increments to correct model errors has become an active research area. However, most studies focus on using neural networks, which while powerful, are hard to interpret, are data-hungry, and poorly generalize out-of-distribution. Here, we show the capabilities of Model Error Discovery with Interpretability and Data Assimilation (MEDIDA), a general, data-efficient framework that uses sparsity-promoting equation-discovery techniques to learn model errors from analysis increments. Using two-layer quasi-geostrophic turbulence as the test case, MEDIDA is shown to successfully discover various linear and nonlinear structural/parametric errors when full observations are available. Discovery from spatially sparse observations is found to require highly accurate interpolation schemes. While NNs have shown success as interpolators in recent studies, here, they are found inadequate due to their inability to accurately represent small scales, a phenomenon known as spectral bias. We show that a general remedy, adding a random Fourier feature layer to the NN, resolves this issue enabling MEDIDA to successfully discover model errors from sparse observations. These promising results suggest that with further development, MEDIDA could be scaled up to models of the Earth system and real observations.

Longitudinal observational data are often subject to informative missingness. For example, in healthcare research using electronic health records, covariates and outcomes are measured only when patients interact with the healthcare system. Whether these data are observed usually depends on the unobserved variable values themselves, introducing a common form of data missing not at random. We develop identification and estimation methods for the effects of longitudinal modified treatment policies under a self-censoring model which explicitly models this dependence. We consider effects of treatments that can be modified only at measurement times (e.g., interactions with the heathcare system). We study two settings: one in which the observed history suffices for treatment confounding control, and another in which confounder control requires covariate values that were not measured at missed visits. In both settings, we combine longitudinal causal identification with shadow-variable conditional moment restrictions to obtain recursive identification formulas for the counterfactual outcome mean. We derive gradients of the pathwise derivatives and second-order remainder expansions, and use these results to construct estimators that accommodate machine learning for nuisance-function estimation. Under suitable product-rate conditions and cross-fitting, the estimators are asymptotically linear and permit root-n inference, including simultaneous inference across outcome times. We also describe conditional-moment learning and ensemble approaches for estimating the nuisance functions required by our approach, together with a pool-and-smooth strategy that borrows information across sparsely measured outcomes.

Although the existing causal inference literature focuses on the forward-looking perspective by estimating effects of causes, the backward-looking perspective can provide insights into causes of effects. In backward-looking causal inference, the probability of necessity measures the probability that a certain event is caused by the treatment given the observed treatment and outcome. Most existing results focus on binary outcomes. Motivated by applications with ordinal outcomes, we propose a general definition of the probability of necessity. However, identifying the probability of necessity is challenging because it involves the joint distribution of the potential outcomes. We propose a novel assumption of monotonic incremental treatment effect to identify the probability of necessity with ordinal outcomes. We also discuss the testable implications of this key identification assumption. When it fails, we derive explicit formulas of the sharp large-sample bounds on the probability of necessity.

We study the dynamics of gravitons in a squeezed vacuum state in a thermal radiation background. Unlike traditional treatments that rely on the Boltzmann equation, we employ the Heisenberg equation and average it over general quantum states. In contrast to the usual Boltzmann-based descriptions, our approach captures the subtleties arising from quantum coherence in different number eigenstates, which is essential for soft graviton modes in the squeezed vacuum state. Our new method successfully reproduces the previous one-loop results within the in-in formalism when the expansion parameter is small and deviates significantly as the parameter increases, indicating that our results extend beyond the one-loop in-in formalism. We examine the implications of graviton emission effects stimulated by quantum coherence in both flat and expanding backgrounds. In the flat background, it is found that backreaction of radiation on the spacetime dynamics is crucial for significant stimulated emission. In the expanding background, to avoid the subtleties associated with superhorizon modes, we investigate the effect of emission within the horizon immediately after reheating and find a significant effect. We examined the IR graviton evolution from a symmetry perspective and propose a regularization prescription to eliminate the secular growth problem.

We introduce Equilibrium Propagation, a learning framework for energy-based models. It involves only one kind of neural computation, performed in both the first phase (when the prediction is made) and the second phase of training (after the target or prediction error is revealed). Although this algorithm computes the gradient of an objective function just like Backpropagation, it does not need a special computation or circuit for the second phase, where errors are implicitly propagated. Equilibrium Propagation shares similarities with Contrastive Hebbian Learning and Contrastive Divergence while solving the theoretical issues of both algorithms: our algorithm computes the gradient of a well defined objective function. Because the objective function is defined in terms of local perturbations, the second phase of Equilibrium Propagation corresponds to only nudging the prediction (fixed point, or stationary distribution) towards a configuration that reduces prediction error. In the case of a recurrent multi-layer supervised network, the output units are slightly nudged towards their target in the second phase, and the perturbation introduced at the output layer propagates backward in the hidden layers. We show that the signal 'back-propagated' during this second phase corresponds to the propagation of error derivatives and encodes the gradient of the objective function, when the synaptic update corresponds to a standard form of spike-timing dependent plasticity. This work makes it more plausible that a mechanism similar to Backpropagation could be implemented by brains, since leaky integrator neural computation performs both inference and error back-propagation in our model. The only local difference between the two phases is whether synaptic changes are allowed or not.

Observational studies of causal effects require adjustment for confounding factors. In the tabular setting, where these factors are well-defined, separate random variables, the effect of confounding is well understood. However, in public policy, ecology, and in medicine, decisions are often made in non-tabular settings, informed by patterns or objects detected in images (e.g., maps, satellite or tomography imagery). Using such imagery for causal inference presents an opportunity because objects in the image may be related to the treatment and outcome of interest. In these cases, we rely on the images to adjust for confounding but observed data do not directly label the existence of the important objects. Motivated by real-world applications, we formalize this challenge, how it can be handled, and what conditions are sufficient to identify and estimate causal effects. We analyze finite-sample performance using simulation experiments, estimating effects using a propensity adjustment algorithm that employs a machine learning model to estimate the image confounding. Our experiments also examine sensitivity to misspecification of the image pattern mechanism. Finally, we use our methodology to estimate the effects of policy interventions on poverty in African communities from satellite imagery.

Counterfactual prompting (i.e., perturbing a single factor and measuring output change) is widely used to evaluate things like LLM bias and CoT faithfulness. But in this work we argue that observed effects cannot be attributed to the targeted factor without accounting for baseline ``meaning-preserving'' modifications to text that establish general model sensitivity. This is because every counterfactual edit is a compound treatment that bundles the variable of interest with incidental surface-form variation; this violates treatment variation irrelevance. We observe prediction flip rates on MedQA of 14.9% when we surgically change patient gender. However, this is statistically indistinguishable from the flip rates induced by simply paraphrasing inputs (14.1%). In this case, it would therefore be unwarranted to conclude that the LLM is especially sensitive to patient gender. To account for this and robustly measure the effects of targeted interventions, we propose a framework in which we compare (via statistical testing) differences observed under target interventions to those induced by paraphrasing inputs. We then use this framework to revisit a analysis done on the MedPerturb dataset, which reported evidence of model sensitivity to patient demographics and stylistic cues. We find that these effects largely dissipate when we account for general model sensitivity, with only 5 of 120 tests reaching statistical significance. Applying the same framework to occupational biography classification, we detect clearly significant directional gender bias, showing that the framework identifies real directional effects even when they are small. We evaluate a range of metrics -- aggregate, per-sample distributional, and regression -- and find that per-sample metrics are dramatically more powerful than aggregate metrics and regression powerfully and uniquely characterizes effect direction and magnitude.

We compute the cross section for the inclusive photoproduction of a pair of jets at next-to-leading order accuracy in the Color Glass Condensate (CGC) effective theory. The aim is to study the back-to-back limit, to investigate whether transverse momentum dependent (TMD) factorization can be recovered at this order. In particular, we focus on the large Sudakov double logarithms, which are major ingredients of the TMD evolution. Interestingly, the kinematical improvement of the low-x resummation scheme turns out to be a key ingredient in the analysis.

Low latent prediction error does not establish that a world model distinguishes the consequences of its actions. We introduce an evaluation protocol that traces the same intervention through simulator state, raster observations, target embeddings, and predictor outputs. Exact simulator-state forks in a controlled deformable-physics testbed reveal distinct bottlenecks. Changed commands alter particle motion, yet 41.5% of one-step raster pairs are identical. Observation loss is not the whole explanation: among 579 high-visibility counterfactuals, median predictor-to-target response is 0.0051 and 0.0217 across two seeds, falling to 0.0027 and 0.0116 after variance normalization. An isotropic state perturbation matched to the target counterfactual embedding shift produces 190x and 53x larger predictor changes on the same visible pairs, isolating action-path under-use rather than a dead or globally shrunk predictor. MSE-only training gives 8.36x lower 10-step latent error in matched seeds, but in spectrally concentrated spaces; one VICReg target encoder is also strongly concentrated, so neither error nor rank alone certifies physical state. Finally, stiffness remains near chance even from full-resolution rasters and mechanical state while privileged material parameters decode perfectly, indicating weak identifiability under this excitation rather than encoder discard. These results motivate auditing physical effect, observation visibility, representation geometry, and action dependence separately.

Evaluation of counterfactual queries (e.g., "If A were true, would C have been true?") is important to fault diagnosis, planning, determination of liability, and policy analysis. We present a method of revaluating counterfactuals when the underlying causal model is represented by structural models - a nonlinear generalization of the simultaneous equations models commonly used in econometrics and social sciences. This new method provides a coherent means for evaluating policies involving the control of variables which, prior to enacting the policy were influenced by other variables in the system.

Background and Objective: Clinicians expect recurrence risk to climb with cancer severity. In a UK multicentre trial, an unconstrained XGBoost model learnt that higher tumour stage and carcinoma in situ predicted lower recurrence risk, and discrimination, calibration, and SHAP were all blind to it. We developed a counterfactual testing framework to detect this inversion and a monotonic-constraint framework to remove it without hurting performance. Methods: BOXIT enrolled 472 patients with protocol-mandated cystoscopy across 51 UK sites (2007-2012); 435 had at least two years' follow-up (153 recurrences, 35.2%). We developed a counterfactual direction test and a monotonic-constraint correction, with constraint directions drawn from the EORTC and EAU risk systems, and evaluated both against unconstrained XGBoost and logistic regression on 18 predictors (seven directed) over 50 cross-validation folds. The test worsened each patient on one directed feature at a time to check whether risk fell; SHAP direction and calibration were also assessed. Key Findings and Limitations: Tumour stage and carcinoma in situ were associated with lower recurrence, opposite to medical intuition; the unconstrained model reversed carcinoma in situ counterfactuals in 90.2% of cases and stage in 74.3%. Discrimination (ΔAUC 0.005, p=0.47), calibration, and SHAP magnitude were all blind to the inversion. Monotonic constraints eliminated every violation at no cost to discrimination (0.723 vs 0.718) and outperformed EORTC (p=8.9e-16). Limitations: single trial, internal-external validation only. Conclusions and Clinical Implications: A model that had learned this inversion passed every conventional check. A counterfactual direction test, run as a single refit with pre-specified monotonic constraints, catches this failure at no cost to performance and should be routine before clinical deployment.

We derive a set of recursion relations for the perturbative evaluation of the scattering of two black holes in Einstein gravity. To illustrate, we solve the equations up to third post-Minkowskian order in the gravitational coupling constant G, recovering the correct result, including the back-reaction from gravitational radiation.

We update predictions for observables in the "delicate" D3/anti-D3 inflationary model on the conifold. We use a full CMB likelihood calculation to assess goodness-of-fit, which is necessary because in this model the zeta power spectrum often cannot be modelled as a power-law over observable scales. For the first time we are able to provide accurate forecasts for the amplitude of three-point correlations. In a significant portion of its parameter space the model follows Maldacena's single-field prediction fNL ~ -(5/12)(ns-1) if nt << 1. Therefore |fNL| is usually small when the power spectrum satisfies observational constraints. In a small number of cases the bispectrum is instead dominated by effects from rapid switching between angular minima. The resulting amplitudes are larger, but mostly with unacceptable spectral behaviour. In the most extreme case we obtain |fNLeq| ~ 75 at kt/3 = 0.002/Mpc. It has been suggested that the quasi-single field inflation ("QSFI") mechanism could produce significant 3-point correlations in this model. We do observe rare shifts in amplitude between equilateral and squeezed configurations that could possibly be associated with QSFI effects, but more investigation is needed to establish the full bispectrum shape. There is evidence of "shape" running between equilateral and squeezed configurations that may be inherited from the scale dependence of the spectrum. We explore the dependence of observables on discrete choices such as the truncation point of the potential. Our analysis illustrates the advantages of a standard format for information exchange within the inflationary model-building and testing community.

Wavefront shaping is a technique for directing light through turbid media. The theoretical aspects of wavefront shaping are well understood, and under near-ideal experimental conditions, accurate predictions for the expected signal enhancement can be given. In practice, however, there are many experimental factors that negatively affect the outcome of the experiment. Here, we present a comprehensive overview of these experimental factors, including the effect of sample scattering properties, noise, and response of the spatial light modulator. We present simple means to identify experimental imperfections and to minimize their negative effect on the outcome of the experiment. This paper is accompanied by Python code for automatically quantifying experimental problems using the OpenWFS framework for running and simulating wavefront shaping experiments.

This study evaluates the effect of counterfactual explanations on the interpretation of chest X-rays. We conduct a reader study with two radiologists assessing 240 chest X-ray predictions to rate their confidence that the model's prediction is correct using a 5 point scale. Half of the predictions are false positives. Each prediction is explained twice, once using traditional attribution methods and once with a counterfactual explanation. The overall results indicate that counterfactual explanations allow a radiologist to have more confidence in true positive predictions compared to traditional approaches (0.15pm0.95 with p=0.01) with only a small increase in false positive predictions (0.04pm1.06 with p=0.57). We observe the specific prediction tasks of Mass and Atelectasis appear to benefit the most compared to other tasks.

Operator-learning benchmarks ship as full-precision arrays, and they have grown to terabyte scale. A curator who wants to distribute one has to decide how coarsely to store it. That decision is usually made by fixing a tolerance on the reconstruction error of the stored field. We show that this quantity is measured in the wrong place. It compares the stored field with the original, before any model is trained. What the curator is buying is the accuracy of a model trained on the compressed copy, and the two can disagree: two PDEBench families stored to identical field error differ threefold downstream. A solution operator smooths, so only part of the codec error ever reaches the model's output. That part can be measured. Push a compressed field through a model already trained at full precision, and compare its output against the output on the clean field. The measurement costs forward passes and no training on compressed data. It spans more than two orders of magnitude across six PDE families, and it orders downstream cost where field error does not, inverting 12 of 104 cross-dataset comparisons against field error's 36. Read as a budget, the same curve nominates a storage rate for each dataset. A back-check against trained models finds those rates wrong in both directions by up to a factor of two in stored bits.

It has been shown that a gravitational dual to a superconductor can be obtained by coupling anti-de Sitter gravity to a Maxwell field and charged scalar. We review our earlier analysis of this theory and extend it in two directions. First, we consider all values for the charge of the scalar field. Away from the large charge limit, backreaction on the spacetime metric is important. While the qualitative behaviour of the dual superconductor is found to be similar for all charges, in the limit of arbitrarily small charge a new type of black hole instability is found. We go on to add a perpendicular magnetic field B and obtain the London equation and magnetic penetration depth. We show that these holographic superconductors are Type II, i.e., starting in a normal phase at large B and low temperatures, they develop superconducting droplets as B is reduced.

Ablate a component of a language model, and other components often appear to adjust and compensate. This phenomenon, termed self-repair, has been observed repeatedly, but its mechanism remains unclear. The most systematic study to date concluded that self-repair is noisy and unlikely to have a single explanation. We argue that it has one: a gain already present before any ablation. Any intervention on a causally important component can be viewed as a point on a coordinate axis λ, the signed strength of a counterfactual contrast. Hence, conventional ablation methods are uncalibrated points on this axis. We show that the causal repair response for a fine-grained unit r is governed by an affine law, E_r(λ)=own_r+γ_rλ. The slope γ_r is a fixed coefficient that consistently influences the model, with or without ablation, and its sign determines whether the unit counteracts or reinforces the removed signal. On a factual-verdict task across four models from distinct families (Gemma, Qwen, LLaMA, and Mistral), we identify components including MLP neurons, OV neurons, and singular directions that follow this affine law, 68 of 81 downstream directions in all. Moreover, we can anticipate the magnitude of γ_r from the fixed weights. On the IOI circuit of GPT-2 Small, seven of the ten heads the intervention can reach follow the law, and all seven are counterweights. From this perspective, what may appear as self-repair is a counterweight performing its usual operation when the contrastive signal emerges at the core.

We present a closed formula for the asymptotic density of states for a class of solvable superstring models on curved backgrounds. The result accounts for the effects of the curvature of the target space in a concise way.

Counterfactual generation seeks to sample outcomes under a hypothetical intervention or decision using observational data collected under the factual assignment mechanism. We develop a flow-matching approach that combines a sample-split, doubly robust training objective with a learned coupling between observed source outcomes and target outcomes drawn from a fitted conditional outcome model. To enable finite-step generation, we leverage a score-corrected stochastic sampler based on a Gaussian-smoothed interpolation. Our main theoretical contribution is a coupling-sensitive KL bound for constant-step Euler discretization: the error is controlled by moments of the source--target displacement under the chosen coupling, rather than by global uniform regularity of the velocity field, and has near-linear dependence on the ambient dimension. We also establish finite-sample non-parametric guarantees for the learned velocity and score fields when both the conditional outcome model and the source-target coupling are estimated from data. These bounds separate approximation, coupling-replacement, nuisance-estimation, generalization, and Monte Carlo errors and, combined with the sampler analysis, yield an end-to-end guarantee for counterfactual generation. Experiments on synthetic and semi-synthetic image benchmarks support the coupling-dependent theory and show that, at finite discretization budgets, the stochastic sampler can outperform the corresponding deterministic ODE sampler.

In machine learning systems, bias mitigation approaches aim to make outcomes fairer across privileged and unprivileged groups. Bias mitigation methods work in different ways and have known "waterfall" effects, e.g., mitigating bias at one place may manifest bias elsewhere. In this paper, we aim to characterise impacted cohorts when mitigation interventions are applied. To do so, we treat intervention effects as a classification task and learn an explainable meta-classifier to identify cohorts that have altered outcomes. We examine a range of bias mitigation strategies that work at various stages of the model life cycle. We empirically demonstrate that our meta-classifier is able to uncover impacted cohorts. Further, we show that all tested mitigation strategies negatively impact a non-trivial fraction of cases, i.e., people who receive unfavourable outcomes solely on account of mitigation efforts. This is despite improvement in fairness metrics. We use these results as a basis to argue for more careful audits of static mitigation interventions that go beyond aggregate metrics.

Understanding and manipulating the causal generation mechanisms in language models is essential for controlling their behavior. Previous work has primarily relied on techniques such as representation surgery -- e.g., model ablations or manipulation of linear subspaces tied to specific concepts -- to intervene on these models. To understand the impact of interventions precisely, it is useful to examine counterfactuals -- e.g., how a given sentence would have appeared had it been generated by the model following a specific intervention. We highlight that counterfactual reasoning is conceptually distinct from interventions, as articulated in Pearl's causal hierarchy. Based on this observation, we propose a framework for generating true string counterfactuals by reformulating language models as Generalized Structural-equation. Models using the Gumbel-max trick. This allows us to model the joint distribution over original strings and their counterfactuals resulting from the same instantiation of the sampling noise. We develop an algorithm based on hindsight Gumbel sampling that allows us to infer the latent noise variables and generate counterfactuals of observed strings. Our experiments demonstrate that the approach produces meaningful counterfactuals while at the same time showing that commonly used intervention techniques have considerable undesired side effects.

We analyze the correlations of the vacuum state of a charged scalar field by constructing localized observables in two disjoint regions. We consider a time-dependent homogeneous electric field and examine the time evolution of correlations by relating it with the particle-antiparticle creation through the Schwinger effect. Our results show that the electric field increases the mixedness of the states and enhances total correlations, while the distillable entanglement among the regions decreases, vanishing at a finite time for sufficiently intense pulses within the non-perturbative pair-production regime. We also discuss the effect of anisotropy induced by the external background, showing that the distribution of correlations acquires a nontrivial directional dependence.

When individuals encounter observations that violate their expectations, when will they adjust their expectations and when will they maintain them despite these observations? For example, when individuals expect objects of type A to be smaller than objects B, but observe the opposite, when will they adjust their expectation about the relationship between the two objects (to A being larger than B)? Naively, one would predict that the larger the violation, the greater the adaptation. However, experiments reveal that when violations are extreme, individuals are more likely to hold on to their prior expectations rather than adjust them. To address this puzzle, we tested the adaptation of artificial neural networks (ANNs) capable of relational learning and found a similar phenomenon: Standard learning dynamics dictates that small violations would lead to adjustments of expected relations while larger ones would be resolved using a different mechanism -- a change in object representation that bypasses the need for adaptation of the relational expectations. These results suggest that the experimentally-observed stability of prior expectations when facing large expectation violations is a natural consequence of learning dynamics and does not require any additional mechanisms. We conclude by discussing the effect of intermediate adaptation steps on this stability.

This chapter provides a pedagogical introduction and overview of spatial and temporal correlation and fluctuation effects resulting from the fundamentally stochastic kinetics underlying chemical reactions and the dynamics of populations or epidemics. After reviewing the assumptions and mean-field type approximations involved in the construction of chemical rate equations for uniform reactant densities, we first discuss spatial clustering in birth-death systems, where non-linearities are introduced through either density-limiting pair reactions, or equivalently via local imposition of finite carrying capacities. The competition of offspring production, death, and non-linear inhibition induces a population extinction threshold, which represents a non-equilibrium phase transition that separates active from absorbing states. This continuous transition is characterized by the universal scaling exponents of critical directed percolation clusters. Next we focus on the emergence of depletion zones in single-species annihilation processes and spatial population segregation with the associated reaction fronts in two-species pair annihilation. These strong (anti-)correlation effects are dynamically generated by the underlying stochastic kinetics. Finally, we address noise-induced and fluctuation-stabilized spatio-temporal patterns in basic predator-prey systems, exemplified by spreading activity fronts in the two-species Lotka-Volterra model as well as spiral structures in the May-Leonard variant of cyclically competing three-species systems akin to rock-paper-scissors games.

Long-tailed learning has garnered increasing attention due to its practical significance. Among the various approaches, the fine-tuning paradigm has gained considerable interest with the advent of foundation models. However, most existing methods primarily focus on leveraging knowledge from these models, overlooking the inherent biases introduced by the imbalanced training data they rely on. In this paper, we examine how such imbalances from pre-training affect long-tailed downstream tasks. Specifically, we find the imbalance biases inherited in foundation models on downstream task as parameter imbalance and data imbalance. During fine-tuning, we observe that parameter imbalance plays a more critical role, while data imbalance can be mitigated using existing re-balancing strategies. Moreover, we find that parameter imbalance cannot be effectively addressed by current re-balancing techniques, such as adjusting the logits, during training, unlike data imbalance. To tackle both imbalances simultaneously, we build our method on causal learning and view the incomplete semantic factor as the confounder, which brings spurious correlations between input samples and labels. To resolve the negative effects of this, we propose a novel backdoor adjustment method that learns the true causal effect between input samples and labels, rather than merely fitting the correlations in the data. Notably, we achieve an average performance increase of about 1.67% on each dataset.

Spatial return models take the interaction matrix as given and leave feedback uninterpreted. We construct a bandwidth-free field from firms' language-model article embedding distributions using target-anchored Wasserstein barycentric reconstruction. A quadratic exposure-adjustment problem maps feedback into a peer-misalignment penalty ratio. For 52 firms, the field, frozen from 2018-2022 news, yields a 2023-2026 penalty ratio of 3.46 (95% interval [2.89, 4.17]) and higher conditional quasi-likelihood than equal-weighted peer support or RBF weighting of the same distances. Joint penalty ratios for the barycentric and news co-mention fields are 2.33 and 0.86 with boundary calibrated tests which reject both exclusions.

Fine-tuning on harmless data can partially undo behaviors acquired earlier in training. Safety can erode under benign post-alignment updates, unlearned capabilities can re-emerge, latent traits can transfer through apparently unrelated supervision, and related post-alignment fragility appears in other generative settings. We argue these phenomena are usefully viewed through a common training-history lens. Our hypothesis is geometric: large early training phases create dominant behavioral manifolds, while later alignment or specialization phases are shallower displacements from them. Subsequent fine-tuning can therefore inherit a persistent reversion component pointing back toward a witness of the dominant manifold. We call this the gravitational interpretation of fine-tuning reversion. Across our main settings, representational drift rapidly acquires a component along a history-defined reversion direction (v_rev). In our main track, alignment with v_rev rises from cos = 0.429 +/- 0.052 after the first update to 0.647 +/- 0.021 by step 20. Across 24 run-step pairs, every observed alignment exceeds the p99 of an isotropic activation-space null. We demonstrate that selectively blocking motion along v_rev changes the final alignment at T=100 from 0.648 +/- 0.009 to -0.211 +/- 0.021 and reduces harmfulness from 19.0% +/- 4.0% to 8.5% +/- 1.5% with little task cost. These results support v_rev as a causally relevant mediator of early post-alignment reversion in our setup. Importantly, we do not claim that v_rev is the unique safety direction, nor that the dominant manifold is directly observed; rather, we identify a robust, history-defined direction that explains and partially controls early reversion dynamics.

The Backpropagation algorithm has often been criticised for its lack of biological realism. In an attempt to find a more biologically plausible alternative, the recently introduced Forward-Forward algorithm replaces the forward and backward passes of Backpropagation with two forward passes. In this work, we show that the internal representations obtained by the Forward-Forward algorithm can organise into category-specific ensembles exhibiting high sparsity -- composed of a low number of active units. This situation is reminiscent of what has been observed in cortical sensory areas, where neuronal ensembles are suggested to serve as the functional building blocks for perception and action. Interestingly, while this sparse pattern does not typically arise in models trained with standard Backpropagation, it can emerge in networks trained with Backpropagation on the same objective proposed for the Forward-Forward algorithm.

The gamma-ray burst (GRB) GRB 211211A and GRB 060614, believed to originate from the merger of compact objects, exhibit similarities to the jetted tidal disruption event (TDE) Sw J1644+57, by showing violent variabilities in the light-curve during the decay phase. Previous studies suggest that such fluctuations in TDE may arise from the fallback of tidal disrupted debris. In this paper, we introduce the fluctuations of the mass distribution {rm d}M/{rm d}E for the debris ejected during the tidal disruption (with energy E) and study their impact on jet power. Turbulence induced by tidal force and the self-gravity of the debris may imprint variabilities in {rm d}M/{rm d}E during fallback. We model these fluctuations with a power density spectrum propto f_{rm E}^{beta}, where f_{rm E} = 1/E and beta is the power-law index. We find that the resulting light curve can preserve the fluctuation characteristics from {rm d}M/{rm d}E. In addition, the observed fluctuations in the light-curves can be reproduced for a given suitable beta. Based on the observations, we find that the value of beta should be around -1.

Energy-energy correlators are constructed by averaging the number of charged particle pairs within jets, weighted by the product of their transverse momenta, as a function of the angular separation of the particles within a pair. They are sensitive to a multitude of perturbative and nonperturbative quantum chromodynamics phenomena in high-energy particle collisions. Using lead-lead data recorded with the CMS detector, energy-energy correlators inside high transverse momentum jets are measured in heavy ion collisions for the first time. The data are obtained at a nucleon-nucleon center-of-mass energy of 5.02 TeV and correspond to an integrated luminosity of 1.70 nb^{-1}. A similar analysis is done for proton-proton collisions at the same center-of-mass energy to establish a reference. The ratio of lead-lead to proton-proton energy-energy correlators reveals significant jet substructure modifications in the quark-gluon plasma. The results are compared to different models that incorporate either color coherence or medium response effects, where the two effects predict similar substructure modifications.

Diffusion models are often introduced from multiple perspectives, such as VAEs, score matching, or flow matching, accompanied by dense and technically demanding mathematics that can be difficult for beginners to grasp. One classic question is: how does the reverse process invert the forward process to generate data from pure noise? This article systematically organizes the diffusion model from a fresh Langevin perspective, offering a simpler, clearer, and more intuitive answer. We also address the following questions: how can ODE-based and SDE-based diffusion models be unified under a single framework? Why are diffusion models theoretically superior to ordinary VAEs? Why is flow matching not fundamentally simpler than denoising or score matching, but equivalent under maximum-likelihood? We demonstrate that the Langevin perspective offers clear and straightforward answers to these questions, bridging existing interpretations of diffusion models, showing how different formulations can be converted into one another within a common framework, and offering pedagogical value for both learners and experienced researchers seeking deeper intuition.

The decays of pseudoscalar mesons to real and virtual photons as well as neutrino-antineutrino pairs are considered in the framework of the dispersive method based on Anomaly Sum Rules. The contribution of singlet channel involving the new non-perturbative gluon form factor of virtual photon B(q^2) is systematically taken into account. The detailed analysis of its dependence on photon virtuality q^2 relying on the available data for meson transition fomfactors is performed. It is shown that B has quite a nontrivial structure at q^2 sim 1 GeV^2 which may be a signal of the existence of pseudoscalar glueball with a mass about 1.5-2 GeV. The calculation of the decay to νbar ν pairs leads to the compatibility with the result of Arnellos, Marciano and Parsa of 1982, when pion decay is considered neglecting the mixing effects. The account for these effects results, however, in the enhancement of pion branching ratio by a factor of 3, while that for eta decay is larger by several orders of magnitude. It is stressed, that dependence on the pair invariant mass is entirely defined by QCD and coincides with that of the meson transition form factor. The role of obtained results for the physics at HHaS detector at HIAF is discussed.

We study, within a toy model, how a thermal bath of cosmological perturbations can decohere the minisuperspace degrees of freedom of the universe, treating the perturbations as an environment in the framework of open quantum systems. Instead of tracing out the perturbations from a semiclassical ansatz for the total wave function, as in earlier approaches, we incorporate their backreaction on the background through an effective second-order coupling and derive a master equation. The model describes a spatially flat semiclassical universe during slow-roll inflation with a dust clock field, while scalar cosmological perturbations in a phenomenologically assumed thermal state constitute the environment. The master equation is non-Markovian, since the bath correlation functions do not decay in time. Within this framework, we find that, for a representative set of parameter estimates, the characteristic decoherence timescale corresponding to the thermal contribution can be shorter than the Hubble timescale. In addition, we address the question of whether the pointer-state structure induced by the decoherence in such a framework could provide a criterion for the choice of semiclassical states in quantum cosmology.

Predicting how a patient's vital signs respond to an intervention is a central question in intensive care. World models can do so by learning dynamics as a function of prior actions. However, such models tend to be brittle outside of training data. Clinicians choose drug dosages based on the patient's state, so the association a model learns between dose and outcome runs opposite to the drug's effect, generalizing poorly to out-of-distribution (OOD) dosing practices. Yet, pharmacological information provides the directional effects of different drugs, which are invariant to OOD shifts. To resolve the OOD sensitivity of current ICU world models, we introduce PHYSIO WORLD, which isolates an intervention's effect by evaluating a forward pass twice: once under recorded doses, and once with those doses set to zero. The difference is projected onto pharmacologically admissible effect directions stated by 70 rules over 28 drugs, leaving the magnitude to be learned from data. Across five distribution-shift parameters over cohorts from three intensive-care databases, and against forecasters, counterfactual models, and invariance objectives, PHYSIO WORLD attains the lowest OOD RMSE in every setting, improving on the strongest external baseline by 8-12%, while matching the in-distribution error of its backbone. Reversing the pharmacological directions degrades accuracy below the backbone, and data-mined directions recover almost no gain, indicating the improvement derives from the content of the pharmacological knowledge. The construction may extend to other settings where the sign of an effect is known in advance and its magnitude is confounded by treatment assignment.

This paper concerns the derivation of radiative transfer equations for acoustic waves propagating in a randomly fluctuating slab (between two parallel planes) in the weak-scattering regime, and the study of boundary effects through an asymptotic analysis of the Wigner transform of the wave solution. These radiative transfer equations allow to model the transport of wave energy density, taking into account the scattering by random heterogeneities. The approach builds on the method of images, where the slab is extended to a full-space, with a periodic map of mechanical properties and a series of sources located along a periodic pattern. Two types of boundary effects, both on the (small) scale of the wavelength, are observed: one at the boundaries of the slab, and one inside the domain. The former impact the entire energy density (coherent as well as incoherent) and is also observed in half-spaces. The latter, more specific to slabs, corresponds to the constructive interference of waves that have reflected at least twice on the boundaries of the slab and only impacts the coherent part of the energy density.

Macroscopic EEG fields can be an explicit top-down neocortical mechanism that directly drives bottom-up processes that describe memory, attention, and other neuronal processes. The top-down mechanism considered are macrocolumnar EEG firings in neocortex, as described by a statistical mechanics of neocortical interactions (SMNI), developed as a magnetic vector potential A. The bottom-up process considered are Ca^{2+} waves prominent in synaptic and extracellular processes that are considered to greatly influence neuronal firings. Here, the complimentary effects are considered, i.e., the influence of A on Ca^{2+} momentum, p. The canonical momentum of a charged particle in an electromagnetic field, mathbfΠ = p + q A (SI units), is calculated, where the charge of Ca^{2+} is q = - 2 e, e is the magnitude of the charge of an electron. Calculations demonstrate that macroscopic EEG A can be quite influential on the momentum p of Ca^{2+} ions, in both classical and quantum mechanics. Molecular scales of Ca^{2+} wave dynamics are coupled with A fields developed at macroscopic regional scales measured by coherent neuronal firing activity measured by scalp EEG. The project has three main aspects: fitting A models to EEG data as reported here, building tripartite models to develop A models, and studying long coherence times of Ca^{2+} waves in the presence of A due to coherent neuronal firings measured by scalp EEG. The SMNI model supports a mechanism wherein the p + q A interaction at tripartite synapses, via a dynamic centering mechanism (DCM) to control background synaptic activity, acts to maintain short-term memory (STM) during states of selective attention.

Many scientific questions require reasoning about what was never observed: What if the conditions, interventions, or history had been different? Models can predict accurately on observed data yet fail on such what-if queries when correlated inputs are varied independently. A common remedy is to add controlled simulation data in which these factors are explicitly disentangled, but this requires access to a simulator, can be computationally expensive, and inherits the simulator's modeling assumptions. We introduce ReRoute, a framework for targeted scientific what-if prediction that combines factual data with partial mechanistic knowledge, without requiring controlled intervention data for adaptation. ReRoute fixes the queried input of a pretrained backbone to a reference value, reintroduces its variation through a known mechanistic pathway, and fine-tunes on the original factual data, while leaving downstream effects to the learned dynamics. We provide a causal identification result for this construction under explicit structural assumptions, with the core argument machine-checked in Lean. After showing that ReRoute achieves highly accurate counterfactual predictions in a controlled advection-diffusion system where exact responses are available, we turn to state-of-the-art climate emulation. On held-out coupled-climate interventions, ReRoute reduces aggregate climate error by 18.2-31.8% under severe CO_2 distribution shifts while preserving skill under standard conditions, at a small fraction of the cost of retraining on additional controlled simulations, without even accounting for the substantial expense of generating such data. Finally, on an emulator trained from historical ERA5 reanalysis, where no counterfactual reference exists, ReRoute preserves substantially more of the surface warming implied by the observed boundary conditions under a fixed-CO_2 counterfactual.

Large-scale video generation models are increasingly viewed as a promising path toward world models, yet their ability to capture causally coherent physical dynamics remains poorly understood. Existing evaluations largely emphasize visual quality, prompt adherence, or broad physical plausibility, leaving open whether a model can faithfully realize a complete causal cascade, in which an initiating event propagates through causally dependent interactions to a terminal outcome. We introduce CausalCascade, a simulator-grounded benchmark centered on 50 event-rich Blender scenes with structured event graphs, graph-grounded diagnostic VQA, three levels of future-event specification, and 2,832 controlled counterfactual variants, and use it to evaluate nine image-to-video models with complementary motion-, event-, and counterfactual-level diagnostics. Across the evaluated models, generated motion is more reliably localized spatially than realized with correct spatiotemporal evolution, while richer future-event specification improves event recovery but leaves physical realization limited. Counterfactual evaluation further reveals weak selective responsiveness to physical interventions, while most audited failures are foundational, arising at scene consistency or event occurrence. Together, these results position causal cascade generation as a process-level test of world modeling and highlight the need to jointly recover the intended future, faithfully realize its physical evolution, selectively respond to physical interventions, and maintain a coherent physical world over time. Code and dataset are available at https://github.com/SJTU-DeepDeltaLab/CausalCascade .

Reciprocity is a fundamental symmetry present in many natural phenomena and engineered systems. Distinct situations where this symmetry is broken are typically grouped under the umbrella term "nonreciprocity", colloquially defined by: the action of A on B neq the action of B on A. In this review, we elucidate what nonreciprocity is by providing an introduction to its most salient classes: nonvariational dynamics, violations of Newton's third law, broken detailed balance, nonreciprocal responses and nonreciprocity of arbitrary linear operators. Next, we point out where to find these manifestations of non-reciprocity, from ensembles of particles with field mediated interactions to synthetic neural networks and open quantum systems. Given this breadth of contexts and the lack of an all-encompassing definition, it makes it all the more intriguing that some general conclusions can be gathered, when distinct definitions of nonreciprocity overlap. We explore what these universal consequences are with a special emphasis on collective phenomena that arise in nonreciprocal many-body systems. The topics covered include nonreciprocal phase transitions and non-normal amplification of noise and perturbations. We conclude with some open questions.

Diffusion models have achieved remarkable success in generative modeling, with their sampling procedures routinely modified to control generation and improve efficiency. These modifications introduce perturbations along the sampling trajectory, raising a central question: how do such perturbations affect generated output? To address this question, we develop a theoretical framework to investigate perturbation propagation, combining dynamical analysis of the sampling process with an information-theoretic characterization of output responses. Within this framework, we quantify perturbation strength using the Kullback--Leibler (KL) divergence between perturbed and reference trajectory distributions, termed as path cost, which is shown to bound, but do not determine, changes in the output distribution. Building on this analysis, we derive a response identity that connects the propagation and accumulation of local perturbations with the information captured by a selected feature mean, explaining why changes in the output distribution can remain undetected by its first-order response. We test our theoretical analysis through controlled interventions at equal path cost in pretrained diffusion models, revealing distinct patterns of output sensitivity across sampling stages and spatial frequencies. To assess whether our framework can diagnose perturbations arising from practical approximations, we apply it to cache-based acceleration and show that our propagation analysis reliably identifies sampling intervals where caching causes larger image errors.

Backtracking, an emergent behavior elicited by reasoning fine-tuning, has been shown to be a key mechanism in reasoning models' enhanced capabilities. Prior work has succeeded in manipulating this behavior via steering vectors, but the underlying mechanism remains poorly understood. In this work, we show that the emergence of backtracking in DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Llama-8B is in part driven by a repurposed direction already present in base model activations. Specifically, we identify a direction in base Llama-3.1-8B's residual stream which systematically induces backtracking when used to steer the distilled reasoning model, and find that the effects of steering with this direction cannot be trivially explained by token-level attributes. We further find that this direction does not induce backtracking in the base model, suggesting that the reasoning finetuning process repurposes pre-existing representations to form new behavioral circuits. Additionally, we hypothesize that this direction is one of several which may work together to mediate backtracking. Our findings offer a compelling picture that reasoning-finetuned models repurpose pre-existing base model representations, rather than learn new capabilities from scratch.

Systems of interacting objects often evolve under the influence of field effects that govern their dynamics, yet previous works have abstracted away from such effects, and assume that systems evolve in a vacuum. In this work, we focus on discovering these fields, and infer them from the observed dynamics alone, without directly observing them. We theorize the presence of latent force fields, and propose neural fields to learn them. Since the observed dynamics constitute the net effect of local object interactions and global field effects, recently popularized equivariant networks are inapplicable, as they fail to capture global information. To address this, we propose to disentangle local object interactions -- which are SE(n) equivariant and depend on relative states -- from external global field effects -- which depend on absolute states. We model interactions with equivariant graph networks, and combine them with neural fields in a novel graph network that integrates field forces. Our experiments show that we can accurately discover the underlying fields in charged particles settings, traffic scenes, and gravitational n-body problems, and effectively use them to learn the system and forecast future trajectories.

Understanding when the noise in stochastic gradient descent (SGD) affects generalization of deep neural networks remains a challenge, complicated by the fact that networks can operate in distinct training regimes. Here we study how the magnitude of this noise T affects performance as the size of the training set P and the scale of initialization alpha are varied. For gradient descent, alpha is a key parameter that controls if the network is `lazy'(alphagg1) or instead learns features (alphall1). For classification of MNIST and CIFAR10 images, our central results are: (i) obtaining phase diagrams for performance in the (alpha,T) plane. They show that SGD noise can be detrimental or instead useful depending on the training regime. Moreover, although increasing T or decreasing alpha both allow the net to escape the lazy regime, these changes can have opposite effects on performance. (ii) Most importantly, we find that the characteristic temperature T_c where the noise of SGD starts affecting the trained model (and eventually performance) is a power law of P. We relate this finding with the observation that key dynamical quantities, such as the total variation of weights during training, depend on both T and P as power laws. These results indicate that a key effect of SGD noise occurs late in training by affecting the stopping process whereby all data are fitted. Indeed, we argue that due to SGD noise, nets must develop a stronger `signal', i.e. larger informative weights, to fit the data, leading to a longer training time. A stronger signal and a longer training time are also required when the size of the training set P increases. We confirm these views in the perceptron model, where signal and noise can be precisely measured. Interestingly, exponents characterizing the effect of SGD depend on the density of data near the decision boundary, as we explain.

Video prediction is increasingly viewed as a path toward generalizable world models, yet it remains unclear whether these systems learn underlying causal structure or merely exploit superficial visual correlations for future prediction. We introduce CRONOS, an intervention-based benchmark designed to evaluate counterfactual physical consistency: whether a model's predictions of physical events respond appropriately to controlled changes in the visual input, such as variations of scene context, viewpoint, object appearance, and object category. Built in a photorealistic Unreal Engine environment, CRONOS enables controlled, high-fidelity generation of videos across diverse scenes and dynamics. In contrast to previous benchmarks, CRONOS systematically intervenes on four key factors - viewpoint, scene, object category, and object appearance - while keeping the underlying physical event type, such as a collision, occlusion, or fall, fixed. Our evaluation of recent open-source video generators reveals substantial failures in counterfactual physical consistency: prediction quality for the same physical event type is affected by appearance, environment, and, particularly by viewpoint changes. CRONOS provides a controlled and reproducible testbed for diagnosing how the quality of generated videos changes for different interventions, establishing a concrete target for developing models that perform consistently across changes of multiple conditions. The dataset and code are available at our project page.

Machine-learning surrogates accelerate physical simulation, but lower prediction error need not coincide with lower error in physically relevant flow statistics. We examine this question for flow around a NACA4418 airfoil using paired computational-fluid-dynamics simulations and experimental particle-image-velocimetry measurements. A mean-preserving input intervention removes velocity fluctuations from selected regions of observed flow histories. Across four neural operators, removing fluctuations from the most energetic 10% of valid observed cells changes forecasts more than equal-area random removal. Because the masks are not matched for removed fluctuation energy, this contrast measures sensitivity, not independent evidence of physical importance. Separately, a CNO has lower velocity-field error but substantially higher two-component fluctuation-energy error than the reference on both analysis subsets. An output attenuation stress test also demonstrates disagreement between benchmark errors and domain-summed fluctuation energy. These single-benchmark results motivate reporting complementary physical diagnostics alongside aggregate prediction scores; they do not establish counterfactual physical correctness.

Naturally occurring background radiation is a source of correlated decoherence events in superconducting qubits that will challenge error-correction schemes. To characterize the radiation environment in an unshielded laboratory, we performed broadband, spectroscopic measurements of background events in silicon substrates located inside a millikelvin refrigerator, an environment representative of superconducting qubit systems. We measured the background spectra in silicon substrates of two thicknesses, 0.5 mm and 1.5 mm, and obtained the average event rate and the integrated power deposition. In a 25 mm^2 area and the thinner substrate, these values are 0.023 events per second and 4.9 keV/s, counting events that deposit at least 40 keV. We find the background spectrum to be nearly featureless. Its intensity decreases by a factor of 40,000 between 100 keV and 3 MeV for silicon substrates 0.5 mm thick. We find the cryogenic measurements to be in good agreement with predictions based on measurements of the terrestrial gamma-ray flux, published models of cosmic-ray fluxes, a crude model of the cryostat, and radiation-transport simulations. No free parameters are required to predict the background spectra in the silicon substrates. The good agreement between measurements and predictions allow assessment of the relative contributions of terrestrial and cosmic background sources and their dependence on substrate thickness. Our spectroscopic measurements are performed with superconducting microresonators that transduce deposited energy to a readily detectable electrical signal. We find that gamma-ray emissions from radioisotopes are responsible for the majority of events depositing E<1.5 MeV, while nucleons among the cosmic-ray secondary particles cause most events that deposit more energy. These results suggest several paths to reducing the impact of background radiation on quantum circuits.

Early warning signals have been proposed to forecast the possibility of a critical transition, such as the eutrophication of a lake, the collapse of a coral reef, or the end of a glacial period. Because such transitions often unfold on temporal and spatial scales that can be difficult to approach by experimental manipulation, research has often relied on historical observations as a source of natural experiments. Here we examine a critical difference between selecting systems for study based on the fact that we have observed a critical transition and those systems for which we wish to forecast the approach of a transition. This difference arises by conditionally selecting systems known to experience a transition of some sort and failing to account for the bias this introduces -- a statistical error often known as the Prosecutor's Fallacy. By analysing simulated systems that have experienced transitions purely by chance, we reveal an elevated rate of false positives in common warning signal statistics. We further demonstrate a model-based approach that is less subject to this bias than these more commonly used summary statistics. We note that experimental studies with replicates avoid this pitfall entirely.

It is anticipated that the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) will collect data from oxygen-oxygen (O+O) collisions at a center-of-mass energy of s_{mathrm{NN}} = 7 TeV to explore the effects observed in high multiplicity proton-proton (p+p) and proton-lead (p+pb) collisions that closely related to lead-lead (Pb+Pb) collisions. These effects include azimuthal asymmetries in particle production, as well as variations in the abundances and momentum distributions across different hadron species, which are indicative of collective particle production mechanisms induced by the interactions in the presence of a QGP. The upcoming data on O+O collisions at the LHC are expected to constrain the model parameters and refine our understanding of theoretical models. In this work, the predicted transverse momentum (p_T) spectra, rapidity density distributions (dN/dy), particle yield ratios, and p_T-differential ratios of (multi)strange hadrons produced in O+O collisions at s_{mathrm{NN}} = 7 TeV using AMPT and EPOS4 models are presented. AMPT focuses on preformed hadronic interactions, while EPOS4 incorporates a QGP phase. Stronger radial flow in EPOS4 as compared to AMPT is also observed. AMPT incorporates some flow effects, but the implementation of full hydrodynamic flow in EPOS4 appears to be significantly more effective in reproducing the existing experimental data. Both models predict the final state multiplicity overlap with p+p, p+pb, and Pb+Pb collisions.

We perform an effective-theory analysis of forward-backward signal propagation in wide and deep Transformers, i.e., residual neural networks with multi-head self-attention blocks and multilayer perceptron blocks. This analysis suggests particular width scalings of initialization and training hyperparameters for these models. We then take up such suggestions, training Vision and Language Transformers in practical setups.

No experimental test precludes the possibility that the dark matter experiences forces beyond general relativity -- in fact, a variety of cosmic microwave background observations suggest greater late-time structure than predicted in the standard Lambda cold dark matter model. We show that minimal models of scalar-mediated forces between dark matter particles do not enhance the growth of unbiased tracers of structure: weak lensing observables depend on the total density perturbation, for which the enhanced growth of the density contrast in the matter era is cancelled by the more rapid dilution of the background dark matter density. Moreover, the same background-level effects imply that scenarios compatible with CMB temperature and polarization anisotropies in fact suppress structure growth, as fixing the distance to last scattering requires a substantially increased density of dark energy. Though massive mediators undo these effects upon oscillating, they suppress structure even further because their gravitational impact as nonclustering subcomponents of matter outweighs the enhanced clustering strength of dark matter. We support these findings with analytic insight that clarifies the physical impact of dark forces and explains how primary CMB measurements calibrate the model's predictions for low-redshift observables. We discuss implications for neutrino mass limits and other cosmological anomalies, and we also consider how nonminimal extensions of the model might be engineered to enhance structure.

The wavelength-coverage and sensitivity of JWST now enables us to probe the rest-frame UV - optical spectral energy distributions (SEDs) of galaxies at high-redshift (z>4). From these SEDs it is, in principle, through SED fitting possible to infer key physical properties, including stellar masses, star formation rates, and dust attenuation. These in turn can be compared with the predictions of galaxy formation simulations allowing us to validate and refine the incorporated physics. However, the inference of physical properties, particularly from photometry alone, can lead to large uncertainties and potential biases. Instead, it is now possible, and common, for simulations to be forward-modelled to yield synthetic observations that can be compared directly to real observations. In this work, we measure the JWST broadband fluxes and colours of a robust sample of 5<z<10 galaxies using the Cosmic Evolution Early Release Science (CEERS) Survey. We then analyse predictions from a variety of models using the same methodology and compare the NIRCam/F277W magnitude distribution and NIRCam colours with observations. We find that the predicted and observed magnitude distributions are similar, at least at 5<z<8. At z>8 the distributions differ somewhat, though our observed sample size is small and thus susceptible to statistical fluctuations. Likewise, the predicted and observed colour evolution show broad agreement, at least at 5<z<8. There is however some disagreement between the observed and modelled strength of the strong line contribution. In particular all the models fails to reproduce the F410M-F444W colour at z>8, though, again, the sample size is small here.

We propose a simple technique for encouraging generative RNNs to plan ahead. We train a "backward" recurrent network to generate a given sequence in reverse order, and we encourage states of the forward model to predict cotemporal states of the backward model. The backward network is used only during training, and plays no role during sampling or inference. We hypothesize that our approach eases modeling of long-term dependencies by implicitly forcing the forward states to hold information about the longer-term future (as contained in the backward states). We show empirically that our approach achieves 9% relative improvement for a speech recognition task, and achieves significant improvement on a COCO caption generation task.

The KMOC formalism provides a systematic framework for extracting classical observables perturbatively from on-shell scattering amplitudes. In this work, we apply this formalism to compute electromagnetic observables in four dimensions, focusing in particular on the linear memory effect and its tail contributions. Using the leading and subleading soft-photon theorems to construct the soft radiation kernel, we demonstrate how these infrared observables emerge directly from amplitude data. We further show that demanding the expected non-perturbative properties of memory and tail effects imposes a nontrivial set of consistency conditions on the underlying S-matrix. We interpret these constraints as imposing the requirement of macroscopic causality on the S-matrix via analysis of inclusive observables.

The "thinking-with-images" paradigm equips multimodal LLMs with active visual operations such as crop-and-zoom. However, models using these operations often achieve only marginal or negative gains over direct inference at substantially higher token cost. They may also repeatedly crop irrelevant regions and fail on questions that direct inference answers correctly. We ask whether the returned visual evidence causally affects the answer. To answer this question, we formulate visual tool-use as a causal graph that separates observation-mediated paths from action-induced shortcuts. We then audit it through interventions at the three levels: policy (comparing tool-use with direct inference), trajectory (corrupting all observations during rollout), and step (counterfactually replacing one individual observation under a fixed prefix). Our step-level estimand, Visual Evidence Gain, isolates the contribution of each returned observation. Across six representative models and five fine-grained perception benchmarks, we uncover policy miscalibration with two failure modes. In Calling Without Looking, returned observations have no causal effect on the answer. In Looking Without Planning, observations are informative but the call schedule is incoherent. A trajectory-level diagnostic decomposes the policy-level accuracy gain and shows that the gain is concentrated in a Calibrated minority. We term this discrepancy the illusion of visual tool-use: despite aggregate accuracy gains, visual tool-use is not causally effective across a broad range of rollouts. The code is available at https://github.com/OpenCausaLab/CauAudit.

Recent model editing techniques promise to mitigate the problem of memorizing false or outdated associations during LLM training. However, we show that these techniques can introduce large unwanted side effects which are not detected by existing specificity benchmarks. We extend the existing CounterFact benchmark to include a dynamic component and dub our benchmark CounterFact+. Additionally, we extend the metrics used for measuring specificity by a principled KL divergence-based metric. We use this improved benchmark to evaluate recent model editing techniques and find that they suffer from low specificity. Our findings highlight the need for improved specificity benchmarks that identify and prevent unwanted side effects.

The production of W^{pm}H, ZH, W^+W^-, and W^pm Z pairs probes non-Standard-Model interactions of quarks, gauge bosons, and the Higgs boson. New effects can be parameterized in terms of an effective field theory (EFT) where the Lagrangian is expanded in terms of higher-dimension operators suppressed by increasing powers of a high scale Λ. We examine the importance of including next-to-leading-order QCD corrections in global fits to the coefficients of the EFT. The numerical implications on the fits due to different approaches to enforcing the validity of the EFT are quantified. We pay particular attention to the dependence of the fits on the expansion in 1/Λ^2 since the differences between results calculated at {O}(1/Λ^2) and {O}(1/Λ^4) may give insight into the possible significance of dimension-8 effects.

Being able to provide explanations for a model's decision has become a central requirement for the development, deployment, and adoption of machine learning models. However, we are yet to understand what explanation methods can and cannot do. How do upstream factors such as data, model prediction, hyperparameters, and random initialization influence downstream explanations? While previous work raised concerns that explanations (E) may have little relationship with the prediction (Y), there is a lack of conclusive study to quantify this relationship. Our work borrows tools from causal inference to systematically assay this relationship. More specifically, we study the relationship between E and Y by measuring the treatment effect when intervening on their causal ancestors, i.e., on hyperparameters and inputs used to generate saliency-based Es or Ys. Our results suggest that the relationships between E and Y is far from ideal. In fact, the gap between 'ideal' case only increase in higher-performing models -- models that are likely to be deployed. Our work is a promising first step towards providing a quantitative measure of the relationship between E and Y, which could also inform the future development of methods for E with a quantitative metric.

Counterfactual data augmentation has recently emerged as a method to mitigate confounding biases in the training data for a machine learning model. These biases, such as spurious correlations, arise due to various observed and unobserved confounding variables in the data generation process. In this paper, we formally analyze how confounding biases impact downstream classifiers and present a causal viewpoint to the solutions based on counterfactual data augmentation. We explore how removing confounding biases serves as a means to learn invariant features, ultimately aiding in generalization beyond the observed data distribution. Additionally, we present a straightforward yet powerful algorithm for generating counterfactual images, which effectively mitigates the influence of confounding effects on downstream classifiers. Through experiments on MNIST variants and the CelebA datasets, we demonstrate the effectiveness and practicality of our approach.

We investigate the internal structure of language model computations using causal analysis and demonstrate two motifs: (1) a form of adaptive computation where ablations of one attention layer of a language model cause another layer to compensate (which we term the Hydra effect) and (2) a counterbalancing function of late MLP layers that act to downregulate the maximum-likelihood token. Our ablation studies demonstrate that language model layers are typically relatively loosely coupled (ablations to one layer only affect a small number of downstream layers). Surprisingly, these effects occur even in language models trained without any form of dropout. We analyse these effects in the context of factual recall and consider their implications for circuit-level attribution in language models.

Large language models can answer scientific questions, yet a correct output does not reveal whether the model represents or uses the governing physics. Here we show that materials science mechanism information in the open-weight google/gemma-4-E4B-it model has three experimentally separable forms: concepts are readable in individual hidden states, constitutive orientation is carried by controlled transformations between states, and selected internal representations causally control engineering answers. We combine matched direct and Jacobian vocabulary readouts, option-free state geometry, a 60-law counterfactual benchmark and causal interventions. In 50 held-out materials descriptions, three independently fitted Jacobian lenses reproduced concept ranks, and target-free word sets from both readouts enabled blinded identification of 9 of 10 mechanism families. A separate 72-prompt benchmark produced mechanism-specific hidden-state neighborhoods, but an exact graph audit showed that this apparent physical organization was equally explained by numerical comparison. We therefore compared otherwise identical prompts in which only the direction of the physical input was reversed, asking whether the resulting hidden-state movement followed the supplied constitutive law. These state transformations ordered direct, physically neutral and inverse laws across 60 frozen relations and correctly oriented 39 of 40 directional laws, whereas lexical controls were near chance. Bidirectional interventions shifted answer probabilities toward or away from the physically appropriate outcome across all 12 matched cases, while counterfactual state patches transferred opposing decision signals across mechanisms and answer formats. Physical relationships were therefore more visible in controlled state changes than in absolute states alone.

We study the impact of higher-order QCD corrections on Higgs production via weak-boson fusion with subsequent decays of the Higgs boson to bottom-quark pairs. We consider realistic fiducial cuts and observe large corrections in a fixed-order calculation. They arise from the interplay of the particular fiducial cuts considered and the radiative corrections to the Higgs decay subprocess. Switching to a parton-shower-matched description of the decay captures a significant portion of the corrections already at the lowest order and improves the perturbative convergence of the calculation.

A longstanding goal in computer vision is to model motions from videos, while the representations behind motions, i.e. the invisible physical interactions that cause objects to deform and move, remain largely unexplored. In this paper, we study how to recover the invisible forces from visual observations, e.g., estimating the wind field by observing a leaf falling to the ground. Our key innovation is an end-to-end differentiable inverse graphics framework, which jointly models object geometry, physical properties, and interactions directly from videos. Through backpropagation, our approach enables the recovery of force representations from object motions. We validate our method on both synthetic and real-world scenarios, and the results demonstrate its ability to infer plausible force fields from videos. Furthermore, we show the potential applications of our approach, including physics-based video generation and editing. We hope our approach sheds light on understanding and modeling the physical process behind pixels, bridging the gap between vision and physics. Please check more video results in our https://chaoren2357.github.io/seeingthewind/{project page}.

Open-weight LLM agents are vulnerable to backdoors installed during fine-tuning, which may be undetectable if the trigger conditions are never met during testing. Assuming defenders do not know the existing trigger, they cannot unlearn it directly. One decontamination strategy is to install a known backdoor (defensive poisoning) then to unlearn it, hoping that the original unknown backdoor is removed as a side effect. However, this procedure has uncertain outcomes: the original backdoor may persist or be erased or rerouted, among other possibilities. We introduce a framework for studying these dynamics in tool-calling agents, decoupling trigger, response, teacher, and fine-tuning method across systematic experiments on AgentDyn. Across 115 experiments, defensive poisoning alone erases around 56% of original backdoors; subsequent decontamination then drives almost all survivors to erasure, confirming that trigger recognition and malicious execution are behaviorally dissociable. Interestingly, our experiments find that malicious backdoors never persist when using different triggers of the same general type as the defensive backdoor when followed by decontamination via unlearning. Co-installing up to four backdoors increases resistance (around 36% erased), yet decontaminating a single known co-resident backdoor collaterally clears 52/60 co-residents (87%). Upon visualizing postdecontamination model internals using J-lens, we confirm that although the decontamination restores benign LLM responses, traces of original trigger awareness persist at intermediate layers.

How strongly do the remaining diffusion-sampling steps amplify a perturbation at a late latent state? Standard measurements answer this question with newly sampled isotropic noise, even though perturbations encountered during sampling have already been transformed by earlier steps. We compare these two cases directly. For each trajectory, we transport a centered perturbation from an earlier step to a late state, then replay its direction at the same magnitude as a newly sampled isotropic perturbation; both then undergo the same remaining updates. Across the samplers we study, median paired shaped-to-fresh angular-gain ratios range from 1.14 to 2.35. Shaped angular gain exceeds its matched fresh counterpart in every trajectory in the original main cohorts. The same pattern appears when endpoint change is measured by latent RMS. The effect also appears in perceptual feature representations: earlier-sampling directions cause larger feature changes at the endpoint, even when the corresponding pixel-space change is comparable. Permuting shaped directions across trajectories weakens the effect, including within class, indicating that the advantage depends on alignment with the receiving trajectory as well as on shared directional structure.

The central problem in biomedical imaging are batch effects: systematic technical variations unrelated to the biological signal of interest. These batch effects critically undermine experimental reproducibility and are the primary cause of failure of deep learning systems on new experimental batches, preventing their practical use in the real world. Despite years of research, no method has succeeded in closing this performance gap for deep learning models. We propose Control-Stabilized Adaptive Risk Minimization via Batch Normalization (CS-ARM-BN), a meta-learning adaptation method that exploits negative control samples. Such unperturbed reference images are present in every experimental batch by design and serve as stable context for adaptation. We validate our novel method on Mechanism-of-Action (MoA) classification, a crucial task for drug discovery, on the large-scale JUMP-CP dataset. The accuracy of standard ResNets drops from 0.939 pm 0.005, on the training domain, to 0.862 pm 0.060 on data from new experimental batches. Foundation models, even after Typical Variation Normalization, fail to close this gap. We are the first to show that meta-learning approaches close the domain gap by achieving 0.935 pm 0.018. If the new experimental batches exhibit strong domain shifts, such as being generated in a different lab, meta-learning approaches can be stabilized with control samples, which are always available in biomedical experiments. Our work shows that batch effects in bioimaging data can be effectively neutralized through principled in-context adaptation, which also makes them practically usable and efficient.

Causal effects are usually studied in terms of the means of counterfactual distributions, which may be insufficient in many scenarios. Given a class of densities known up to normalizing constants, we propose to model counterfactual distributions by minimizing kernel Stein discrepancies in a doubly robust manner. This enables the estimation of counterfactuals over large classes of distributions while exploiting the desired double robustness. We present a theoretical analysis of the proposed estimator, providing sufficient conditions for consistency and asymptotic normality, as well as an examination of its empirical performance.

Suppressing parasitic back-reflection caused by imperfections, such as random defects, material inhomogeneities, localized inclusions, and fabrication-induced geometric deviations, has long been a central objective in optical-waveguide engineering. In this Letter, we theoretically establish that universal immunity to backscattering from arbitrary disorder is fundamentally impossible in reciprocal optical waveguides, irrespective of whether the underlying structure is topologically trivial or nontrivial.We establish this result through two complementary constructions of physically admissible reciprocal perturbations. The first considers weak permittivity perturbations of finite spatial extent within the first Born approximation, whereas the second considers optically small dielectric perturbations of finite contrast. In each construction, an admissible realization exists that produces a nonzero leading-order backward-scattering amplitude. We trace the fundamental origin of this limitation to the absence in photons of the intrinsic spin-1{2} and fermionic time-reversal structure underlying Kramers protection in electronic systems. Consequently, any mechanism that enforces photonic backscattering suppression throughout a prescribed class of disorder must instead be engineered into the underlying electromagnetic structure and its constitutive response, which can itself be modified by generic reciprocal perturbations. Numerical examples in representative reciprocal topological waveguides further illustrate these limitations for random defects and sharp bends. We further identify several constructive strategies for suppressing back-reflection within certain prescribed classes of disorder.

We study a spectral regularization of the Dean--Kawasaki equation and quantify how the failure of positivity preservation affects its weak approximation of the empirical measure of independent Brownian particles. For initial densities bounded away from zero, we prove a uniform-in-time weak error measured through the Laplace transform and prove a superpolynomial convergence rate for smooth test functions. When the initial density is allowed to vanish, the negative part of the regularized solution leads to weaker upper bounds, and a one-dimensional example gives a lower error bound ruling out superpolynomial convergence. We also present numerical experiments that confirm the theoretical results and illustrate main observations.

Backdoor attacks pose significant security risks for Large Language Models (LLMs), yet the internal mechanisms by which triggers operate remain poorly understood. We present the first mechanistic analysis of language-switching backdoors, studying the GAPperon model family (1B, 8B, 24B parameters) which contains triggers injected during pretraining that cause output language switching. Using activation patching, we localize trigger formation to early layers (7.5-25% of model depth) and identify which attention heads process trigger information. Our central finding is that trigger-activated heads substantially overlap with heads naturally encoding output language across model scales, with Jaccard indices between 0.18 and 0.66 over the top heads identified. This suggests that backdoor triggers do not form isolated circuits but instead co-opt the model's existing language components. These findings have implications for backdoor defense: detection methods may benefit from monitoring known functional components rather than searching for hidden circuits, and mitigation strategies could potentially leverage this entanglement between injected and natural behaviors.

Given that Transformers are ubiquitous in wide tasks, interpreting their internals is a pivotal issue. Still, their particular components, feed-forward (FF) blocks, have typically been less analyzed despite their substantial parameter amounts. We analyze the input contextualization effects of FF blocks by rendering them in the attention maps as a human-friendly visualization scheme. Our experiments with both masked- and causal-language models reveal that FF networks modify the input contextualization to emphasize specific types of linguistic compositions. In addition, FF and its surrounding components tend to cancel out each other's effects, suggesting potential redundancy in the processing of the Transformer layer.

Deep Learning using the eponymous deep neural networks (DNNs) has become an attractive approach towards various data-based problems of theoretical physics in the past decade. There has been a clear trend to deeper architectures containing increasingly more powerful and involved layers. Contrarily, Taylor coefficients of DNNs still appear mainly in the light of interpretability studies, where they are computed at most to first order. However, especially in theoretical physics numerous problems benefit from accessing higher orders, as well. This gap motivates a general formulation of neural network (NN) Taylor expansions. Restricting our analysis to multilayer perceptrons (MLPs) and introducing quantities we refer to as propagators and vertices, both depending on the MLP's weights and biases, we establish a graph-theoretical approach. Similarly to Feynman rules in quantum field theories, we can systematically assign diagrams containing propagators and vertices to the corresponding partial derivative. Examining this approach for S-wave scattering lengths of shallow potentials, we observe NNs to adapt their derivatives mainly to the leading order of the target function's Taylor expansion. To circumvent this problem, we propose an iterative NN perturbation theory. During each iteration we eliminate the leading order, such that the next-to-leading order can be faithfully learned during the subsequent iteration. After performing two iterations, we find that the first- and second-order Born terms are correctly adapted during the respective iterations. Finally, we combine both results to find a proxy that acts as a machine-learned second-order Born approximation.

In the BCS theory of superconductivity the amplitude (Higgs) mode is degenerate with the pair-breaking threshold: its frequency coincides with 2Δ, so it is an edge singularity rather than a true collective mode. This is why after a sudden weak perturbation at t=0 its oscillations decay algebraically as 1/t. We show that the retardation effects due to the phonon dynamics in the strong-coupling theory lift this degeneracy. The Higgs mode detaches from the pair-breaking edge 2Δ_g, set by the spectral gap, and becomes a sharp subgap excitation. We determine its frequency from the longitudinal pair susceptibility evaluated directly on the real frequency axis, using the Eilenberger equations for Migdal--Eliashberg theory with the Einstein phonon spectrum. The response of the mass renormalization supplies at least two fifths of the displacement, and possibly all of it: with it switched off, the binding falls below the resolution of the calculation. Its consequences, however, are significant because a percent-level shift transfers about a quarter of the spectral weight of the amplitude channel out of the two-quasiparticle continuum into a discrete energy level. What experiment sees is therefore not the displacement itself but its consequence: amplitude oscillations that persist instead of decaying as 1/t.

Understanding predictions made by deep neural networks is notoriously difficult, but also crucial to their dissemination. As all machine learning based methods, they are as good as their training data, and can also capture unwanted biases. While there are tools that can help understand whether such biases exist, they do not distinguish between correlation and causation, and might be ill-suited for text-based models and for reasoning about high level language concepts. A key problem of estimating the causal effect of a concept of interest on a given model is that this estimation requires the generation of counterfactual examples, which is challenging with existing generation technology. To bridge that gap, we propose CausaLM, a framework for producing causal model explanations using counterfactual language representation models. Our approach is based on fine-tuning of deep contextualized embedding models with auxiliary adversarial tasks derived from the causal graph of the problem. Concretely, we show that by carefully choosing auxiliary adversarial pre-training tasks, language representation models such as BERT can effectively learn a counterfactual representation for a given concept of interest, and be used to estimate its true causal effect on model performance. A byproduct of our method is a language representation model that is unaffected by the tested concept, which can be useful in mitigating unwanted bias ingrained in the data.

We analyse the robustness of the DESI 2024 cosmological inference from fits to the full shape of the galaxy power spectrum to uncertainties in the Halo Occupation Distribution (HOD) model of the galaxy-halo connection and the choice of priors on nuisance parameters. We assess variations in the recovered cosmological parameters across a range of mocks populated with different HOD models and find that shifts are often greater than 20% of the expected statistical uncertainties from the DESI data. We encapsulate the effect of such shifts in terms of a systematic covariance term, C_{rm HOD}, and an additional diagonal contribution quantifying the impact of our choice of nuisance parameter priors on the ability of the effective field theory (EFT) model to correctly recover the cosmological parameters of the simulations. These two covariance contributions are designed to be added to the usual covariance term, C_{rm stat}, describing the statistical uncertainty in the power spectrum measurement, in order to fairly represent these sources of systematic uncertainty. This approach is more general and robust to choices of model free parameters or additional external datasets used in cosmological fits than the alternative approach of adding systematic uncertainties at the level of the recovered marginalised parameter posteriors. We compare the approaches within the context of a fixed LambdaCDM model and demonstrate that our method gives conservative estimates of the systematic uncertainty that nevertheless have little impact on the final posteriors obtained from DESI data.

Multivariate Time Series (MTS) forecasting is a fundamental task with numerous real-world applications, such as transportation, climate, and epidemiology. While a myriad of powerful deep learning models have been developed for this task, few works have explored the robustness of MTS forecasting models to malicious attacks, which is crucial for their trustworthy employment in high-stake scenarios. To address this gap, we dive deep into the backdoor attacks on MTS forecasting models and propose an effective attack method named BackTime.By subtly injecting a few stealthy triggers into the MTS data, BackTime can alter the predictions of the forecasting model according to the attacker's intent. Specifically, BackTime first identifies vulnerable timestamps in the data for poisoning, and then adaptively synthesizes stealthy and effective triggers by solving a bi-level optimization problem with a GNN-based trigger generator. Extensive experiments across multiple datasets and state-of-the-art MTS forecasting models demonstrate the effectiveness, versatility, and stealthiness of attacks. The code is available at https://github.com/xiaolin-cs/BackTime.

A major goal of ongoing and future cosmological surveys of the large-scale structure is to measure local type primordial non-Gaussianity in the galaxy power spectrum through the scale-dependent bias. General relativistic effects have been shown to be degenerate with this measurement, therefore requiring a non-Newtonian approach. In this work, we develop a consistent framework to compute integrated effects, including lensing convergence, time delay, and integrated Sachs--Wolfe, along with the local relativistic projection and wide-separation corrections in the multipoles of the power spectrum. We show that, for a Euclid-like Hα-line galaxy survey and a MegaMapper-like Lyman-break galaxy survey, ignoring these effects leads to a bias on the best fit measurement of the amplitude of primordial non-Gaussianity, f_{rm NL}, of around 3,σ and 20 , σ respectively. When we include these corrections, the uncertainty in our knowledge of the luminosity function leads to further uncertainty in our measurement of f_{rm NL}. In this work, we show that this degeneracy can be partly mitigated by using a bright-faint multi-tracer analysis, where the observed galaxy sample is subdivided into two separate populations based on luminosity, which provides a 15--20% improvement on the forecasted constraints of local type f_{rm NL}. In addition, we present a novel calculation of the full multi-tracer covariance with the inclusion of wide-separation corrections~-- all of these results are implemented in the Python code CosmoWAP.

When solving inverse problems, it is increasingly popular to use pre-trained diffusion models as plug-and-play priors. This framework can accommodate different forward models without re-training while preserving the generative capability of diffusion models. Despite their success in many imaging inverse problems, most existing methods rely on privileged information such as derivative, pseudo-inverse, or full knowledge about the forward model. This reliance poses a substantial limitation that restricts their use in a wide range of problems where such information is unavailable, such as in many scientific applications. To address this issue, we propose Ensemble Kalman Diffusion Guidance (EnKG) for diffusion models, a derivative-free approach that can solve inverse problems by only accessing forward model evaluations and a pre-trained diffusion model prior. We study the empirical effectiveness of our method across various inverse problems, including scientific settings such as inferring fluid flows and astronomical objects, which are highly non-linear inverse problems that often only permit black-box access to the forward model.

Contextual forecasting seeks to improve time series forecasting by incorporating forward-looking information, such as planned events, external conditions, and expert expectations. However, reliable evaluation remains difficult: existing benchmarks often have limited domain coverage, lack standardized history-future splits, or provide text that is not guaranteed to inform the future. We introduce GIFT-Eval-CTX, a benchmark that isolates whether forecasting methods can translate verified future information into accurate numerical trajectories. Built upon GIFT-Eval, GIFT-Eval-CTX contains 10,000 instances across 20 datasets. Each instance provides structured effects derived from the realized future: Macro effects describe horizon-wide behavior, while Micro effects specify localized changes. We construct these annotations with an agentic pipeline combining LLM-based discovery and deterministic code validation. We benchmark TSFMs, frontier LLMs, and tool-using agentic systems. The results show that structured effects reduce aggregate relative MASE by 40.7% for GPT-5.6 Sol and 29.6% for Claude Opus 4.8 relative to history-only prompting. The evaluated MoiraiAgent system achieves the best overall result. We further analyze the contributions of structured effects and agentic systems to performance, and identify opportunities for future research.

The transfer of a star's angular momentum to its atmosphere is a topic of considerable and wide-ranging interest in astrophysics. This letter considers the effect of kinetic and magnetic turbulence on the solar wind's angular momentum. The effects are quantified in a theoretical framework that employs Reynolds-averaged mean field magnetohydrodynamics, allowing for fluctuations of arbitrary amplitude. The model is restricted to the solar equatorial (\(r-\phi\)) plane with axial symmetry, which permits the effect of turbulence to be expressed in analytical form as a modification to the classic Weber & Davis (1967) theory, dependent on the \(r,\phi\) shear component of the Reynolds stress tensor. A solar wind simulation with turbulence transport modeling and Parker Solar Probe observations at the Alfv\'en surface are employed to quantify this turbulent modification to the solar wind's angular momentum, which is found to be ~ 3% - 10% and tends to be negative. Implications for solar and stellar rotational evolution are discussed.

Identifying heterogeneous treatment effects under unobserved confounding is central in observational causal inference. In proxy models with a discrete latent confounder, prior Synthetic Potential Outcomes (SPO) [Mazaheri-Squires-Uhler '25] recover the mixture of treatment effects through recursively constructed scalar moments. We show that this sequence is one projection of a more fundamental object. Under the same population factorization assumptions, there is an exact compressed observable operator: after projecting onto the shared proxy signal subspace, the difference of two treatment-arm quotient operators is similar to the diagonal matrix of latent treatment effects. Its eigenvalues are the latent effects; its lifted left eigenvectors, after anchor normalization, recover the target-proxy feature matrix and then the latent mixture proportions. Every scalar SPO moment is a bilinear functional of a power of this operator. The resulting estimator handles overcomplete proxy systems, replaces high-order scalar inversion with finite-dimensional spectral analysis, and admits high-probability first-order perturbation bounds for treatment effects, feature rows, and simplex-projected mixture weights.

In many environments only a tiny subset of all states yield high reward. In these cases, few of the interactions with the environment provide a relevant learning signal. Hence, we may want to preferentially train on those high-reward states and the probable trajectories leading to them. To this end, we advocate for the use of a backtracking model that predicts the preceding states that terminate at a given high-reward state. We can train a model which, starting from a high value state (or one that is estimated to have high value), predicts and sample for which the (state, action)-tuples may have led to that high value state. These traces of (state, action) pairs, which we refer to as Recall Traces, sampled from this backtracking model starting from a high value state, are informative as they terminate in good states, and hence we can use these traces to improve a policy. We provide a variational interpretation for this idea and a practical algorithm in which the backtracking model samples from an approximate posterior distribution over trajectories which lead to large rewards. Our method improves the sample efficiency of both on- and off-policy RL algorithms across several environments and tasks.

Using the First Light And Reionisation Epoch Simulations ({rm F{small LARES}}), a suite of hydrodynamical simulations we explore the consequences of a realistic model for star--dust geometry on the observed properties of galaxies. We find that the UV attenuation declines rapidly from the central regions of galaxies, and bright galaxies have spatially extended star formation that suffers less obscuration than their fainter counterparts, demonstrating a non-linear relationship between the UV luminosity and the UV attenuation, giving a double power-law shape to the UVLF. Spatially distinct stellar populations within galaxies experience a wide range of dust attenuation due to variations in the dust optical depth along their line-of-sight; which can range from completely dust obscured to being fully unobscured. The overall attenuation curve of a galaxy is then a complex combination of various lines-of-sight within the galaxy. We explore the manifestation of this effect to study the reliability of line ratios to infer galaxy properties, in particular the Balmer decrement and the BPT diagram. We find the Balmer decrement predicted Balmer line attenuation to be higher (factor of 1 to gtrsim10) than expected from commonly used attenuation curves. The observed BPT line ratios deviate from their intrinsic values (median difference of 0.08 (0.02) and standard deviation of 0.2 (0.05) for log_{10}([N{small II}]lambda 6585/H_{alpha}) (log_{10}([O{small III}]lambda 5008/H_{beta})). Finally, we explore the variation in observed properties (UV attenuation, UV slope and Balmer decrement) with viewing angle, finding average differences of sim0.3 magnitudes in the UV attenuation.

Whilst most of the binary configurations in modified theories of gravity are studied under quasi-circular orbit limit, eccentricity effects could play a significant role in future gravitational wave detections. We derive the gravitational radiation-reaction force for nonspinning eccentric orbits within the effective-one-body (EOB) description for the massless scalar-tensor theories up to 1.5 post-Newtonian (PN) order. The effects in such theories start at 1/c^3 and interestingly, the 1.5PN order effect is due to the radiation reaction square effects which is a conservative effect. The results derived here can be implemented in the quasi-circular EOB-based waveform models to construct waveform templates for generic orbit binaries within massless scalar-tensor theories of gravity.

Treatment effect estimation is of high-importance for both researchers and practitioners across many scientific and industrial domains. The abundance of observational data makes them increasingly used by researchers for the estimation of causal effects. However, these data suffer from biases, from several weaknesses, leading to inaccurate causal effect estimations, if not handled properly. Therefore, several machine learning techniques have been proposed, most of them focusing on leveraging the predictive power of neural network models to attain more precise estimation of causal effects. In this work, we propose a new methodology, named Nearest Neighboring Information for Causal Inference (NNCI), for integrating valuable nearest neighboring information on neural network-based models for estimating treatment effects. The proposed NNCI methodology is applied to some of the most well established neural network-based models for treatment effect estimation with the use of observational data. Numerical experiments and analysis provide empirical and statistical evidence that the integration of NNCI with state-of-the-art neural network models leads to considerably improved treatment effect estimations on a variety of well-known challenging benchmarks.

Deep neural networks (DNNs) are vulnerable to backdoor attacks. The backdoor adversaries intend to maliciously control the predictions of attacked DNNs by injecting hidden backdoors that can be activated by adversary-specified trigger patterns during the training process. One recent research revealed that most of the existing attacks failed in the real physical world since the trigger contained in the digitized test samples may be different from that of the one used for training. Accordingly, users can adopt spatial transformations as the image pre-processing to deactivate hidden backdoors. In this paper, we explore the previous findings from another side. We exploit classical spatial transformations (i.e. rotation and translation) with the specific parameter as trigger patterns to design a simple yet effective poisoning-based backdoor attack. For example, only images rotated to a particular angle can activate the embedded backdoor of attacked DNNs. Extensive experiments are conducted, verifying the effectiveness of our attack under both digital and physical settings and its resistance to existing backdoor defenses.

Beauty-hadron production in proton-nucleus collisions is a particularly powerful probe of cold nuclear matter (CNM) effects: thanks to the large beauty-quark mass, the production is initiated in early hard scatterings and is calculable in perturbative QCD, while the modifications observed in nuclear collisions directly constrain the nuclear parton distribution functions (nPDFs) in a kinematic region complementary to that accessed by charm. Precisely quantifying these effects is a prerequisite for isolating possible signatures of quark-gluon plasma formation in heavy-ion collisions. In this work, the production of open beauty hadrons in p-Pb collisions at s_{mathrm{NN}} = 5.02 and 8.16~TeV is studied via a data-driven Bayesian unfolding of ALICE and LHCb measurements of non-prompt D^{0} and J/ψ mesons. The unfolded p_{T}- and y-differential cross sections are mutually consistent across decay channels and compatible with directly reconstructed beauty-hadron measurements. The nuclear modification factor R_{pPb} is reported as a function of transverse momentum and rapidity, providing the first unfolding-based result spanning -4.0 < y < 4.0 of beauty-hadron R_{pPb} covering the full rapidity range, with a precision comparable to or better than that of existing data. The results are compared with calculations based on nPDFs and can provide valuable constraints for future global nPDF fits. The total inclusive B hadron production cross section in p-Pb collisions is also reported. A weaker CNM suppression is observed for beauty hadrons than for charm hadrons, consistent with the expected mass hierarchy of cold-nuclear-matter effects.

Modern generative models typically rely on an adversarial critic, a prescribed noise-to-data path, or an autoregressive factorization. Instead, we show that a proper distributional energy can induce sample-level motion and provide direct regression supervision for a one-step generator. Three-Body Scattering Modeling (TBSM) for generation turns the energy distance into a constant-size per-projectile interaction: each projectile is attracted toward one real source and repelled from one independently generated source. Conditioned on the projectile and its condition, its expectation equals the 2-Wasserstein gradient-flow velocity of frac12D_E^2(P_θ,Q). A batch of B frozen-target events yields O(B) sample-level losses, each using one reference for its condition instead of the minibatch-wide all-pairs field used by methods such as Drifting Models. Tracking this conditional expectation online can reduce field noise. Using scattering in frozen image features, TBSM trains one-step generators on ImageNet-256, achieving FID{}=2.23 with pixel-space PixelDiT-XL and FID{}=1.63 with latent-space DiT-XL at NFE{}=1. We provide a design map relating diffusion-related supervision, Drift-like dynamics, and GAN-like objectives. These results establish tracked scattering as a route to high-dimensional one-step generation. Code: https://github.com/sp12138/TBSM.

Delayed outcomes are ubiquitous in online experimentation: treatment can affect whether an outcome occurs, when it occurs, and its realized value. To accommodate staggered entry while remaining robust to environmental nonstationarity and unit-level heterogeneity, we adopt a design-based perspective and target the sample cumulative reward in each arm as a function of calendar time. Our confidence sequences allow practitioners to continuously monitor the counterfactual incremental reward, such as revenue, that would have been realized by calendar time t had all entered units been assigned to treatment rather than control. The main technical challenge is the choice of design-based filtration, complicated by the presence of asynchronous potential outcome times. We show that the IPW treatment-effect estimation error is not a martingale with respect to any filtration, while each arm-specific IPW estimation error is a martingale with respect to a carefully chosen arm-specific event-time filtration. We therefore construct a confidence sequence for the treatment effect by combining two arm-level confidence sequences with a union bound, and further demonstrate that this can outperform the traditional design-based variance upper bound. Finally, we characterize the class of augmentations for which the per-arm AIPW estimation error remains a martingale.

Despite its widespread use in neural networks, error backpropagation has faced criticism for its lack of biological plausibility, suffering from issues such as the backward locking problem and the weight transport problem. These limitations have motivated researchers to explore more biologically plausible learning algorithms that could potentially shed light on how biological neural systems adapt and learn. Inspired by the counter-current exchange mechanisms observed in biological systems, we propose counter-current learning (CCL), a biologically plausible framework for credit assignment in neural networks. This framework employs a feedforward network to process input data and a feedback network to process targets, with each network enhancing the other through anti-parallel signal propagation. By leveraging the more informative signals from the bottom layer of the feedback network to guide the updates of the top layer of the feedforward network and vice versa, CCL enables the simultaneous transformation of source inputs to target outputs and the dynamic mutual influence of these transformations. Experimental results on MNIST, FashionMNIST, CIFAR10, and CIFAR100 datasets using multi-layer perceptrons and convolutional neural networks demonstrate that CCL achieves comparable performance to other biologically plausible algorithms while offering a more biologically realistic learning mechanism. Furthermore, we showcase the applicability of our approach to an autoencoder task, underscoring its potential for unsupervised representation learning. Our work presents a direction for biologically inspired and plausible learning algorithms, offering an alternative mechanism of learning and adaptation in neural networks.

In a federated learning (FL) system, distributed clients upload their local models to a central server to aggregate into a global model. Malicious clients may plant backdoors into the global model through uploading poisoned local models, causing images with specific patterns to be misclassified into some target labels. Backdoors planted by current attacks are not durable, and vanish quickly once the attackers stop model poisoning. In this paper, we investigate the connection between the durability of FL backdoors and the relationships between benign images and poisoned images (i.e., the images whose labels are flipped to the target label during local training). Specifically, benign images with the original and the target labels of the poisoned images are found to have key effects on backdoor durability. Consequently, we propose a novel attack, Chameleon, which utilizes contrastive learning to further amplify such effects towards a more durable backdoor. Extensive experiments demonstrate that Chameleon significantly extends the backdoor lifespan over baselines by 1.2times sim 4times, for a wide range of image datasets, backdoor types, and model architectures.

Deep neural networks have shown promise for music audio signal processing applications, often surpassing prior approaches, particularly as end-to-end models in the waveform domain. Yet results to date have tended to be constrained by low sample rates, noise, narrow domains of signal types, and/or lack of parameterized controls (i.e. "knobs"), making their suitability for professional audio engineering workflows still lacking. This work expands on prior research published on modeling nonlinear time-dependent signal processing effects associated with music production by means of a deep neural network, one which includes the ability to emulate the parameterized settings you would see on an analog piece of equipment, with the goal of eventually producing commercially viable, high quality audio, i.e. 44.1 kHz sampling rate at 16-bit resolution. The results in this paper highlight progress in modeling these effects through architecture and optimization changes, towards increasing computational efficiency, lowering signal-to-noise ratio, and extending to a larger variety of nonlinear audio effects. Toward these ends, the strategies employed involved a three-pronged approach: model speed, model accuracy, and model generalizability. Most of the presented methods provide marginal or no increase in output accuracy over the original model, with the exception of dataset manipulation. We found that limiting the audio content of the dataset, for example using datasets of just a single instrument, provided a significant improvement in model accuracy over models trained on more general datasets.

Language models are pretrained as passive predictors with no incentive to model the consequences of their own outputs. Post-training changes this: a model producing its own responses can benefit from recognizing that it is on-policy. We present evidence that post-trained models recognize their on-policy generations, and this recognition is implicitly encoded in their output distributions. In particular, on-policy output distribution entropy is 3--4times lower than off-policy entropy, across model families and size classes. We trace part of this effect to an internal representation of input surprise, tracking the unlikeliness of the most recent input token according to the model's prior predictions, that causally modulates output entropy. One example of these phenomena can be observed in response to open-ended prompts; post-trained models (unlike pretrained models) collapse their uncertainty over the topic of their upcoming response before the first output token; violating this cached intention with a different-topic prefill results in higher output entropy. We also tested whether models can distinguish on-policy contexts from prefills via explicit verbal report. We find that they can, but that interestingly, this explicit recognition routes through a different mechanism than implicit recognition.

The initial state of neural networks plays a central role in conditioning the subsequent training dynamics. In the context of classification problems, we provide a theoretical analysis demonstrating that the structure of a neural network can condition the model to assign all predictions to the same class, even before the beginning of training, and in the absence of explicit biases. We show that the presence of this phenomenon, which we call "Initial Guessing Bias" (IGB), depends on architectural choices such as activation functions, max-pooling layers, and network depth. Our analysis of IGB has practical consequences, in that it guides architecture selection and initialization. We also highlight theoretical consequences, such as the breakdown of node-permutation symmetry, the violation of self-averaging, the validity of some mean-field approximations, and the non-trivial differences arising with depth.

We present an imaging and neural rendering technique that seeks to synthesize videos of light propagating through a scene from novel, moving camera viewpoints. Our approach relies on a new ultrafast imaging setup to capture a first-of-its kind, multi-viewpoint video dataset with picosecond-level temporal resolution. Combined with this dataset, we introduce an efficient neural volume rendering framework based on the transient field. This field is defined as a mapping from a 3D point and 2D direction to a high-dimensional, discrete-time signal that represents time-varying radiance at ultrafast timescales. Rendering with transient fields naturally accounts for effects due to the finite speed of light, including viewpoint-dependent appearance changes caused by light propagation delays to the camera. We render a range of complex effects, including scattering, specular reflection, refraction, and diffraction. Additionally, we demonstrate removing viewpoint-dependent propagation delays using a time warping procedure, rendering of relativistic effects, and video synthesis of direct and global components of light transport.

We study the problem of model selection in causal inference, specifically for the case of conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation under binary treatments. Unlike model selection in machine learning, there is no perfect analogue of cross-validation as we do not observe the counterfactual potential outcome for any data point. Towards this, there have been a variety of proxy metrics proposed in the literature, that depend on auxiliary nuisance models estimated from the observed data (propensity score model, outcome regression model). However, the effectiveness of these metrics has only been studied on synthetic datasets as we can access the counterfactual data for them. We conduct an extensive empirical analysis to judge the performance of these metrics introduced in the literature, and novel ones introduced in this work, where we utilize the latest advances in generative modeling to incorporate multiple realistic datasets. Our analysis suggests novel model selection strategies based on careful hyperparameter tuning of CATE estimators and causal ensembling.

In staggered treatment-adoption designs, later-treated units are valid controls for an earlier-treated cohort only until their own treatment begins, so the admissible donor set contracts with event time. Fixing the donor pool at the longest horizon discards temporarily eligible donors, whereas re-estimating synthetic-control weights independently at each horizon can make the counterfactual unstable as donor composition changes. We propose Risk-Set Transported Synthetic Control with Difference-in-Differences Adjustment (RT-SC-DiD). For each cohort and event-time horizon, the estimator fits weights on the currently untreated donors while shrinking them toward a transported reference that reallocates the weight of exiting donors to similar surviving donors. A DiD baseline correction removes persistent level differences. We characterize distortion from horizon-by-horizon reoptimization, derive the loading change induced by naive deletion and renormalization, and give a conditional recursive bound for error propagation under an explicitly assumed regularity condition on the transport map. We also introduce donor-support diagnostics and a donor-only placebo procedure for selecting the transport penalty. In an 80-replication pilot comparison and a separate 40-replication-per-value sensitivity analysis, intermediate transport regularization reduces average RMSE relative to independent horizon-specific estimation and strong anchoring. This evidence supports the method's bias-variance motivation but is not a proved guarantee. RT-SC-DiD is intended for settings where later-treated units provide useful short-horizon information and donor support contracts materially over time. Existing staggered synthetic-control and synthetic difference-in-differences methods do not, to our knowledge, explicitly regularize within-cohort weight sequences toward transported references as risk sets contract.

In this paper, training a neural network is identified, exactly, as a search through Hamilton--Jacobi initial-value problems: each gradient step selects the initial data of a viscous Hamilton--Jacobi equation whose Hopf--Cole propagator best fits the observations; at inference, the input is the spatial point at which that solution is evaluated and the initial condition is already encoded in the weights. The correspondence is exact for log-sum-exp layers and structural for broader architectures: residual networks, transformers, and recurrent architectures (RNNs, LSTMs, SSMs) each discretize the same class of Hamilton--Jacobi equations, with architecture-dependent Hamiltonian and viscosity. A single deformation parameter varepsilon unifies all four perspectives (network, tropical algebra, viscous PDE, convex optimization) in a commutative diagram closed under Lipschitz conditions. Quantitative consequences include: the minimax optimal generalization rate O(n^{-1/(d+2)}) for fixed t; adversarial robustness controlled by varepsilon; backpropagation as the co-state equation of the Hamiltonian system for residual networks (Pontryagin Maximum Principle); scaling exponents consistent with data intrinsic dimension via PDE quadrature; and a closed-form O(N) influence function (softmax attribution weights π_j) whose entropy landscape undergoes fold bifurcations as varepsilon increases, each merging attribution basins.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown remarkable capabilities in zero-shot learning applications, generating responses to queries using only pre-training information without the need for additional fine-tuning. This represents a significant departure from traditional machine learning approaches. Previous research has indicated that LLMs may exhibit serial position effects, such as primacy and recency biases, which are well-documented cognitive biases in human psychology. Our extensive testing across various tasks and models confirms the widespread occurrence of these effects, although their intensity varies. We also discovered that while carefully designed prompts can somewhat mitigate these biases, their effectiveness is inconsistent. These findings underscore the significance of serial position effects during the inference process, particularly in scenarios where there are no ground truth labels, highlighting the need for greater focus on addressing these effects in LLM applications.

Large language models are being widely used across industries to generate content that contributes directly to key performance metrics, such as conversion rates. Pretrained models, however, often fall short when it comes to aligning with human preferences or optimizing for business objectives. As a result, fine-tuning with good-quality labeled data is essential to guide models to generate content that achieves better results. Controlled experiments, like A/B tests, can provide such data, but they are often expensive and come with significant engineering and logistical challenges. Meanwhile, companies have access to a vast amount of historical (observational) data that remains underutilized. In this work, we study the challenges and opportunities of fine-tuning LLMs using observational data. We show that while observational outcomes can provide valuable supervision, directly fine-tuning models on such data can lead them to learn spurious correlations. We present empirical evidence of this issue using various real-world datasets and propose DeconfoundLM, a method that explicitly removes the effect of known confounders from reward signals. Using simulation experiments, we demonstrate that DeconfoundLM improves the recovery of causal relationships and mitigates failure modes found in fine-tuning methods that ignore or naively incorporate confounding variables. Our findings highlight that while observational data presents risks, with the right causal corrections, it can be a powerful source of signal for LLM alignment. Please refer to the project page for code and related resources.

Estimating the causal effects of a spatially-varying intervention on a spatially-varying outcome may be subject to non-local confounding (NLC), a phenomenon that can bias estimates when the treatments and outcomes of a given unit are dictated in part by the covariates of other nearby units. In particular, NLC is a challenge for evaluating the effects of environmental policies and climate events on health-related outcomes such as air pollution exposure. This paper first formalizes NLC using the potential outcomes framework, providing a comparison with the related phenomenon of causal interference. Then, it proposes a broadly applicable framework, termed "weather2vec", that uses the theory of balancing scores to learn representations of non-local information into a scalar or vector defined for each observational unit, which is subsequently used to adjust for confounding in conjunction with causal inference methods. The framework is evaluated in a simulation study and two case studies on air pollution where the weather is an (inherently regional) known confounder.

Backward compatibility of model predictions is a desired property when updating a machine learning driven application. It allows to seamlessly improve the underlying model without introducing regression bugs. In classification tasks these bugs occur in the form of negative flips. This means an instance that was correctly classified by the old model is now classified incorrectly by the updated model. This has direct negative impact on the user experience of such systems e.g. a frequently used voice assistant query is suddenly misclassified. A common reason to update the model is when new training data becomes available and needs to be incorporated. Simply retraining the model with the updated data introduces the unwanted negative flips. We study the problem of regression during data updates and propose Backward Compatible Weight Interpolation (BCWI). This method interpolates between the weights of the old and new model and we show in extensive experiments that it reduces negative flips without sacrificing the improved accuracy of the new model. BCWI is straight forward to implement and does not increase inference cost. We also explore the use of importance weighting during interpolation and averaging the weights of multiple new models in order to further reduce negative flips.

The robust generalization of models to rare, in-distribution (ID) samples drawn from the long tail of the training distribution and to out-of-training-distribution (OOD) samples is one of the major challenges of current deep learning methods. For image classification, this manifests in the existence of adversarial attacks, the performance drops on distorted images, and a lack of generalization to concepts such as sketches. The current understanding of generalization in neural networks is very limited, but some biases that differentiate models from human vision have been identified and might be causing these limitations. Consequently, several attempts with varying success have been made to reduce these biases during training to improve generalization. We take a step back and sanity-check these attempts. Fixing the architecture to the well-established ResNet-50, we perform a large-scale study on 48 ImageNet models obtained via different training methods to understand how and if these biases - including shape bias, spectral biases, and critical bands - interact with generalization. Our extensive study results reveal that contrary to previous findings, these biases are insufficient to accurately predict the generalization of a model holistically. We provide access to all checkpoints and evaluation code at https://github.com/paulgavrikov/biases_vs_generalization

In observational settings where treatment and outcome share unmeasured confounders but an observed mediator remains unconfounded, the front-door (FD) adjustment identifies causal effects through the mediator. We study the heterogeneous treatment effect (HTE) under FD identification and introduce two debiased learners: FD-DR-Learner and FD-R-Learner. Both attain fast, quasi-oracle rates (i.e., performance comparable to an oracle that knows the nuisances) even when nuisance functions converge as slowly as n^-1/4. We provide error analyses establishing debiasedness and demonstrate robust empirical performance in synthetic studies and a real-world case study of primary seat-belt laws using Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) dataset. Together, these results indicate that the proposed learners deliver reliable and sample-efficient HTE estimates in FD scenarios. The implementation is available at https://github.com/yonghanjung/FD-CATE. Keywords: Front-door adjustment; Heterogeneous treatment effects; Debiased learning; Quasi-oracle rates; Causal inference.

Switchbacks are discrete angular deflections in the solar wind magnetic field that have been observed throughout the heliosphere. Recent observations by Parker Solar Probe (PSP) have revealed the presence of patches of switchbacks on the scale of hours to days, separated by 'quieter' radial fields. We aim to further diagnose the origin of these patches using measurements of proton temperature anisotropy that can illuminate possible links to formation processes in the solar corona. We fitted 3D bi-Maxwellian functions to the core of proton velocity distributions measured by the SPAN-Ai instrument onboard PSP to obtain the proton parallel, T_{p,|}, and perpendicular, T_{p,perp}, temperature. We show that the presence of patches is highlighted by a transverse deflection in the flow and magnetic field away from the radial direction. These deflections are correlated with enhancements in T_{p,|}, while T_{p,perp} remains relatively constant. Patches sometimes exhibit small proton and electron density enhancements. We interpret that patches are not simply a group of switchbacks, but rather switchbacks are embedded within a larger-scale structure identified by enhanced T_{p,|} that is distinct from the surrounding solar wind. We suggest that these observations are consistent with formation by reconnection-associated mechanisms in the corona.

Alternatives to backpropagation have long been studied to better understand how biological brains may learn. Recently, they have also garnered interest as a way to train neural networks more efficiently. By relaxing constraints inherent to backpropagation (e.g., symmetric feedforward and feedback weights, sequential updates), these methods enable promising prospects, such as local learning. However, the tradeoffs between different methods in terms of final task performance, convergence speed, and ultimately compute and data requirements are rarely outlined. In this work, we use scaling laws to study the ability of Direct Feedback Alignment~(DFA) to train causal decoder-only Transformers efficiently. Scaling laws provide an overview of the tradeoffs implied by a modeling decision, up to extrapolating how it might transfer to increasingly large models. We find that DFA fails to offer more efficient scaling than backpropagation: there is never a regime for which the degradation in loss incurred by using DFA is worth the potential reduction in compute budget. Our finding comes at variance with previous beliefs in the alternative training methods community, and highlights the need for holistic empirical approaches to better understand modeling decisions.

We present the NPIPE processing pipeline, which produces calibrated frequency maps in temperature and polarization from data from the Planck Low Frequency Instrument (LFI) and High Frequency Instrument (HFI) using high-performance computers. NPIPE represents a natural evolution of previous Planck analysis efforts, and combines some of the most powerful features of the separate LFI and HFI analysis pipelines. The net effect of the improvements is lower levels of noise and systematics in both frequency and component maps at essentially all angular scales, as well as notably improved internal consistency between the various frequency channels. Based on the NPIPE maps, we present the first estimate of the Solar dipole determined through component separation across all nine Planck frequencies. The amplitude is (3366.6 pm 2.7)μK, consistent with, albeit slightly higher than, earlier estimates. From the large-scale polarization data, we derive an updated estimate of the optical depth of reionization of τ= 0.051 pm 0.006, which appears robust with respect to data and sky cuts. There are 600 complete signal, noise and systematics simulations of the full-frequency and detector-set maps. As a Planck first, these simulations include full time-domain processing of the beam-convolved CMB anisotropies. The release of NPIPE maps and simulations is accompanied with a complete suite of raw and processed time-ordered data and the software, scripts, auxiliary data, and parameter files needed to improve further on the analysis and to run matching simulations.

The early stage of high-energy heavy-ion collisions undergoes transient dynamics, evolving non-perturbatively from a gluon-rich to a chemically equilibrated quark-gluon plasma. We develop an effective hydrodynamic approach that casts the microscopic quark equilibration dynamics as the relaxation evolution of an effective macroscopic bulk viscous pressure. The evolution of this effective bulk viscous pressure captures quark chemical equilibration and the breaking of conformal symmetry, thereby providing a smooth onset of the lattice QCD equation of state after a few fm/c in the hydrodynamic evolution. We investigate phenomenological effects of this macroscopic description on final-state observables in Pb+Pb, O+O, and p+Pb collisions at the Large Hadron Collider.

Massive activations, residual-stream coordinates with magnitudes far larger than typical activations, are associated with attention sinks in transformers, but how their scale is regulated during training remains incompletely understood. Combining training-trajectory analyses and controlled interventions, we trace their emergence, growth, and consolidation. Sink-carrying channels vary across random seeds but stabilize early within each run. Over longer training, surrounding channels erode and the sink concentrates onto a few redundant carriers. Across ablations, gradient attenuation follows the sink token's collective root-mean-square magnitude rather than any single channel, making collective scale central to understanding their effects. Our central result is that weight decay causally controls the turnover of global activation scale. In controlled continuations, removing decay near the peak allows this scale to keep rising, whereas retaining it produces decline even at constant learning rate. We develop a balance model for the rise and peak of massive-activation magnitude, in which AdamW-preconditioned growth opposes weight decay. Sweeping the decay coefficient λ shifts peak timing approximately log-linearly and yields peak magnitudes scaling approximately as λ^{-1/2}, consistent with this balance. Optimizer measurements further show that preconditioning sustains the large-channel cohort against decay even when raw maintaining forces are too small to do so. Together, these findings connect the observed life cycle to scale-regulating training dynamics and establish weight decay as a training-time lever on activation magnitude.