Daily Papers

Local loss-landscape stabilization under sample growth is typically measured either pointwise or through isotropic averaging in the full parameter space. Despite practical value, both choices probe directions that contribute little to the dominant local deformation of strongly anisotropic neural landscapes. We recast stabilization as an observational problem and introduce a unified family of criteria parameterized by an aggregation order and a probing distribution; within this family we propose a curvature-aligned criterion Δ_2^{(D)} that probes the loss increment field in the top-D eigenspace of the empirical Hessian near a trained solution. Solely from a local quadratic model, we prove that Δ_2^{(D)} preserves the O(k^{-2}) mean-squared rate of the full-space criterion while replacing ambient-dimension curvature dependence with dependence on the subspace dimension D; a corollary gives a closed-form spectral expression and a proposition identifies the top-D eigenspace as extremal within the eigenspace-aligned family. We also derive scalable estimators based on Hessian-vector products, subspace Monte Carlo, and a closed-form Gaussian-moment proxy. On a decoder-only transformer, a curvature-aligned probe occupying a tiny fraction of parameter space already reproduces the full-space mean-squared signal to within numerical noise throughout the validated local regime, and the closed-form estimator is orders of magnitude faster than direct Monte Carlo after subspace construction.

Moment-based estimation is a theoretically attractive approach to parametric inference, especially when likelihood-based estimation is unavailable, misspecified, or computationally inconvenient. However, the moment equations involve sample averages, which makes moment-based estimation sensitive to outliers. We propose the SGR-GMM algorithm, a robust generalized method of moments (GMM) procedure that uses a spectral gradient reweighting (SGR) primitive to soft-reweight the per-observation gradients during the moment-matching optimization. Our analysis has three layers. First, for a fixed center, the SGR primitive is formulated as an entropy-regularized spectral game between a sample-weight player and a density-matrix player, which is analyzed using classical multiplicative-weights and matrix-multiplicative-weights regret bounds. Second, we establish explicit convergence radius and finite termination bound for the fixed-center updates in the SGR primitive. Third, we prove a local finite-sample parameter estimation error bound with explicit dependence on the contamination fraction, inlier gradient stability, local GMM identification strength, and optimization accuracy. We further specialize the SGR-GMM algorithm to obtain a robust diagonally-weighted GMM (DGMM) estimator for estimating heteroscedastic low-rank Gaussian mixtures observed under additive Gaussian noise and strong contamination. In the numerical experiments, the SGR primitive produces nearly-oracle gradient estimation and the robust DGMM specialization substantially improves over non-robust moment baselines. The code and data are available at https://github.com/liu-lzhang/sgr-gmm.

Moment restrictions and their conditional counterparts emerge in many areas of machine learning and statistics ranging from causal inference to reinforcement learning. Estimators for these tasks, generally called methods of moments, include the prominent generalized method of moments (GMM) which has recently gained attention in causal inference. GMM is a special case of the broader family of empirical likelihood estimators which are based on approximating a population distribution by means of minimizing a varphi-divergence to an empirical distribution. However, the use of varphi-divergences effectively limits the candidate distributions to reweightings of the data samples. We lift this long-standing limitation and provide a method of moments that goes beyond data reweighting. This is achieved by defining an empirical likelihood estimator based on maximum mean discrepancy which we term the kernel method of moments (KMM). We provide a variant of our estimator for conditional moment restrictions and show that it is asymptotically first-order optimal for such problems. Finally, we show that our method achieves competitive performance on several conditional moment restriction tasks.

We introduce a new class of algorithms, Stochastic Generalized Method of Moments (SGMM), for estimation and inference on (overidentified) moment restriction models. Our SGMM is a novel stochastic approximation alternative to the popular Hansen (1982) (offline) GMM, and offers fast and scalable implementation with the ability to handle streaming datasets in real time. We establish the almost sure convergence, and the (functional) central limit theorem for the inefficient online 2SLS and the efficient SGMM. Moreover, we propose online versions of the Durbin-Wu-Hausman and Sargan-Hansen tests that can be seamlessly integrated within the SGMM framework. Extensive Monte Carlo simulations show that as the sample size increases, the SGMM matches the standard (offline) GMM in terms of estimation accuracy and gains over computational efficiency, indicating its practical value for both large-scale and online datasets. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach by a proof of concept using two well known empirical examples with large sample sizes.

Identifying heterogeneous treatment effects under unobserved confounding is central in observational causal inference. In proxy models with a discrete latent confounder, prior Synthetic Potential Outcomes (SPO) [Mazaheri-Squires-Uhler '25] recover the mixture of treatment effects through recursively constructed scalar moments. We show that this sequence is one projection of a more fundamental object. Under the same population factorization assumptions, there is an exact compressed observable operator: after projecting onto the shared proxy signal subspace, the difference of two treatment-arm quotient operators is similar to the diagonal matrix of latent treatment effects. Its eigenvalues are the latent effects; its lifted left eigenvectors, after anchor normalization, recover the target-proxy feature matrix and then the latent mixture proportions. Every scalar SPO moment is a bilinear functional of a power of this operator. The resulting estimator handles overcomplete proxy systems, replaces high-order scalar inversion with finite-dimensional spectral analysis, and admits high-probability first-order perturbation bounds for treatment effects, feature rows, and simplex-projected mixture weights.

Machine learning based solvers have garnered much attention in physical simulation and scientific computing, with a prominent example, physics-informed neural networks (PINNs). However, PINNs often struggle to solve high-frequency and multi-scale PDEs, which can be due to spectral bias during neural network training. To address this problem, we resort to the Gaussian process (GP) framework. To flexibly capture the dominant frequencies, we model the power spectrum of the PDE solution with a student t mixture or Gaussian mixture. We apply the inverse Fourier transform to obtain the covariance function (by Wiener-Khinchin theorem). The covariance derived from the Gaussian mixture spectrum corresponds to the known spectral mixture kernel. Next, we estimate the mixture weights in the log domain, which we show is equivalent to placing a Jeffreys prior. It automatically induces sparsity, prunes excessive frequencies, and adjusts the remaining toward the ground truth. Third, to enable efficient and scalable computation on massive collocation points, which are critical to capture high frequencies, we place the collocation points on a grid, and multiply our covariance function at each input dimension. We use the GP conditional mean to predict the solution and its derivatives so as to fit the boundary condition and the equation itself. As a result, we can derive a Kronecker product structure in the covariance matrix. We use Kronecker product properties and multilinear algebra to promote computational efficiency and scalability, without low-rank approximations. We show the advantage of our method in systematic experiments. The code is released at https://github.com/xuangu-fang/Gaussian-Process-Slover-for-High-Freq-PDE.

In computer graphics, there is a need to recover easily modifiable representations of 3D geometry and appearance from image data. We introduce a novel method for this task using 3D Gaussian Splatting, which enables intuitive scene editing through mesh adjustments. Starting with input images and camera poses, we reconstruct the underlying geometry using a neural Signed Distance Field and extract a high-quality mesh. Our model then estimates a set of Gaussians, where each component is flat, and the opacity is conditioned on the recovered neural surface. To facilitate editing, we produce a proxy representation that encodes information about the Gaussians' shape and position. Unlike other methods, our pipeline allows modifications applied to the extracted mesh to be propagated to the proxy representation, from which we recover the updated parameters of the Gaussians. This effectively transfers the mesh edits back to the recovered appearance representation. By leveraging mesh-guided transformations, our approach simplifies 3D scene editing and offers improvements over existing methods in terms of usability and visual fidelity of edits. The complete source code for this project can be accessed at https://github.com/WJakubowska/NeuralSurfacePriors

Gaussian processes (GPs) are popular nonparametric statistical models for learning unknown functions and quantifying the spatiotemporal uncertainty in data. Recent works have extended GPs to model scalar and vector quantities distributed over non-Euclidean domains, including smooth manifolds appearing in numerous fields such as computer vision, dynamical systems, and neuroscience. However, these approaches assume that the manifold underlying the data is known, limiting their practical utility. We introduce RVGP, a generalisation of GPs for learning vector signals over latent Riemannian manifolds. Our method uses positional encoding with eigenfunctions of the connection Laplacian, associated with the tangent bundle, readily derived from common graph-based approximation of data. We demonstrate that RVGP possesses global regularity over the manifold, which allows it to super-resolve and inpaint vector fields while preserving singularities. Furthermore, we use RVGP to reconstruct high-density neural dynamics derived from low-density EEG recordings in healthy individuals and Alzheimer's patients. We show that vector field singularities are important disease markers and that their reconstruction leads to a comparable classification accuracy of disease states to high-density recordings. Thus, our method overcomes a significant practical limitation in experimental and clinical applications.

Gaussian processes (GP) are a well studied Bayesian approach for the optimization of black-box functions. Despite their effectiveness in simple problems, GP-based algorithms hardly scale to high-dimensional functions, as their per-iteration time and space cost is at least quadratic in the number of dimensions d and iterations t. Given a set of A alternatives to choose from, the overall runtime O(t^3A) is prohibitive. In this paper we introduce BKB (budgeted kernelized bandit), a new approximate GP algorithm for optimization under bandit feedback that achieves near-optimal regret (and hence near-optimal convergence rate) with near-constant per-iteration complexity and remarkably no assumption on the input space or covariance of the GP. We combine a kernelized linear bandit algorithm (GP-UCB) with randomized matrix sketching based on leverage score sampling, and we prove that randomly sampling inducing points based on their posterior variance gives an accurate low-rank approximation of the GP, preserving variance estimates and confidence intervals. As a consequence, BKB does not suffer from variance starvation, an important problem faced by many previous sparse GP approximations. Moreover, we show that our procedure selects at most O(d_{eff}) points, where d_{eff} is the effective dimension of the explored space, which is typically much smaller than both d and t. This greatly reduces the dimensionality of the problem, thus leading to a O(TAd_{eff}^2) runtime and O(A d_{eff}) space complexity.

Classical estimators for ARIMA parameters (MLE, CSS, OLS) assume Gaussian innovations, an assumption frequently violated in financial and economic data exhibiting asymmetric distributions with heavy tails. We develop and validate the second-order polynomial maximization method (PMM2) for estimating ARIMA(p,d,q) models with non-Gaussian innovations. PMM2 is a semiparametric technique that exploits higher-order moments and cumulants without requiring full distributional specification. Monte Carlo experiments (128,000 simulations) across sample sizes N in {100, 200, 500, 1000} and four innovation distributions demonstrate that PMM2 substantially outperforms classical methods for asymmetric innovations. For ARIMA(1,1,0) with N=500, relative efficiency reaches 1.58--1.90 for Gamma, lognormal, and χ^2(3) innovations (37--47\% variance reduction). Under Gaussian innovations PMM2 matches OLS efficiency, avoiding the precision loss typical of robust estimators. The method delivers major gains for moderate asymmetry (|γ_3| geq 0.5) and N geq 200, with computational costs comparable to MLE. PMM2 provides an effective alternative for time series with asymmetric innovations typical of financial markets, macroeconomic indicators, and industrial measurements. Future extensions include seasonal SARIMA models, GARCH integration, and automatic order selection.

Approximate inference in Gaussian process (GP) models with non-conjugate likelihoods gets entangled with the learning of the model hyperparameters. We improve hyperparameter learning in GP models and focus on the interplay between variational inference (VI) and the learning target. While VI's lower bound to the marginal likelihood is a suitable objective for inferring the approximate posterior, we show that a direct approximation of the marginal likelihood as in Expectation Propagation (EP) is a better learning objective for hyperparameter optimization. We design a hybrid training procedure to bring the best of both worlds: it leverages conjugate-computation VI for inference and uses an EP-like marginal likelihood approximation for hyperparameter learning. We compare VI, EP, Laplace approximation, and our proposed training procedure and empirically demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposal across a wide range of data sets.

The probabilistic diffusion model has become highly effective across various domains. Typically, sampling from a diffusion model involves using a denoising distribution characterized by a Gaussian with a learned mean and either fixed or learned covariances. In this paper, we leverage the recently proposed covariance moment matching technique and introduce a novel method for learning the diagonal covariance. Unlike traditional data-driven diagonal covariance approximation approaches, our method involves directly regressing the optimal diagonal analytic covariance using a new, unbiased objective named Optimal Covariance Matching (OCM). This approach can significantly reduce the approximation error in covariance prediction. We demonstrate how our method can substantially enhance the sampling efficiency, recall rate and likelihood of commonly used diffusion models.

In physics and engineering literature, the distribution of the excursion-above-zero time distribution (exceedance distribution) for a stationary Gaussian process has been approximated by a stationary switching process with independently distributed switching times. The approach matched the covariance of the clipped Gaussian process with the one for the stationary switching process and the distribution of the latter was used as the so-called independent interval approximation (IIA). The approach successfully assessed the persistency exponent for many physically important processes but left an unanswered question when such an approach leads to a mathematically meaningful and proper exceedance distribution. Here we address this question by proposing an alternative matching of the expected values of the clipped Slepian process and the corresponding switched process initiated at the origin. The method has allowed resolving the mathematical correctness of the matching method for a large subclass of the Gaussian processes with monotonic covariance, for which we provide a sufficient condition for the validity of the IIA. Within this class, the IIA produces a valid distribution for the excursion time and is represented in an explicit stochastic form that connects directly to the covariance of the underlying Gaussian process. We compare the excursion level distributions as well as the corresponding persistency exponents obtained through the IIA method with numerically computed exact distributions, and the simulated distribution for several important Gaussian models. We also argue that for stationary Gaussian processes with a non-monotonic covariance, the IIA fails and should not be used.

To achieve scalable and accurate inference for latent Gaussian processes, we propose a variational approximation based on a family of Gaussian distributions whose covariance matrices have sparse inverse Cholesky (SIC) factors. We combine this variational approximation of the posterior with a similar and efficient SIC-restricted Kullback-Leibler-optimal approximation of the prior. We then focus on a particular SIC ordering and nearest-neighbor-based sparsity pattern resulting in highly accurate prior and posterior approximations. For this setting, our variational approximation can be computed via stochastic gradient descent in polylogarithmic time per iteration. We provide numerical comparisons showing that the proposed double-Kullback-Leibler-optimal Gaussian-process approximation (DKLGP) can sometimes be vastly more accurate for stationary kernels than alternative approaches such as inducing-point and mean-field approximations at similar computational complexity.

The nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (NPMLE) of a Gaussian location mixture maximizes the likelihood over the infinite-dimensional space of mixing distributions. The maximizing mixing distribution can be nonunique, and the classical bound on its number of atoms grows linearly with the sample size n. We show that a vanishingly small random perturbation of the likelihood yields exact polylogarithmic sparsity. The resulting randomly reweighted NPMLE maximizes a weighted likelihood whose independent weights, taken to be Gamma in our analysis, concentrate around one as n grows. With high probability, it is unique, has O{(log n/loglog n)^d+log n} atoms in dimension d, nearly maximizes the ordinary likelihood, and estimates the mixture density at a Hellinger rate that is parametric up to logarithmic factors. This sparsity holds for the estimator itself, not for an approximation of it, and requires no support penalty. The proof rests on an effective-dimension principle for positive kernel mixtures: low-dimensional variation of the fitted values controls the support of every extreme point of the set of maximizers. Numerical illustrations verify that the reweighted NPMLE has Hellinger risk and support size comparable to those of the ordinary NPMLE.

We develop an econometric framework integrating heavy-tailed Student's t distributions with behavioral probability weighting while preserving infinite divisibility. Using 432{,}752 observations across 86 assets (2004--2024), we demonstrate Student's t specifications outperform Gaussian models in 88.4\% of cases. Bounded probability-weighting transformations preserve mathematical properties required for dynamic pricing. Gaussian models underestimate 99\% Value-at-Risk by 19.7\% versus 3.2\% for our specification. Joint estimation procedures identify tail and behavioral parameters with established asymptotic properties. Results provide robust inference for asset-pricing applications where heavy tails and behavioral distortions coexist.

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) have been an important framework in the study of uncertainty quantification. Deterministic variational inference, one of the inference methods, utilizes moment propagation to compute the predictive distributions and objective functions. Unfortunately, deriving the moments requires computationally expensive Taylor expansion in nonlinear functions, such as a rectified linear unit (ReLU) or a sigmoid function. Therefore, a new nonlinear function that realizes faster moment propagation than conventional functions is required. In this paper, we propose a novel nonlinear function named moment propagating-Gaussian error linear unit (MP-GELU) that enables the fast derivation of first and second moments in BNNs. MP-GELU enables the analytical computation of moments by applying nonlinearity to the input statistics, thereby reducing the computationally expensive calculations required for nonlinear functions. In empirical experiments on regression tasks, we observed that the proposed MP-GELU provides higher prediction accuracy and better quality of uncertainty with faster execution than those of ReLU-based BNNs.

Learning in Gaussian Process models occurs through the adaptation of hyperparameters of the mean and the covariance function. The classical approach entails maximizing the marginal likelihood yielding fixed point estimates (an approach called Type II maximum likelihood or ML-II). An alternative learning procedure is to infer the posterior over hyperparameters in a hierarchical specification of GPs we call Fully Bayesian Gaussian Process Regression (GPR). This work considers two approximation schemes for the intractable hyperparameter posterior: 1) Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) yielding a sampling-based approximation and 2) Variational Inference (VI) where the posterior over hyperparameters is approximated by a factorized Gaussian (mean-field) or a full-rank Gaussian accounting for correlations between hyperparameters. We analyze the predictive performance for fully Bayesian GPR on a range of benchmark data sets.

We develop a unified mathematical framework for certified Top-k attention truncation that quantifies approximation error at both the distribution and output levels. For a single attention distribution P and its Top-k truncation hat P, we show that the total-variation distance coincides with the discarded softmax tail mass and satisfies TV(P,hat P)=1-e^{-KL(hat PVert P)}, yielding sharp Top-k-specific bounds in place of generic inequalities. From this we derive non-asymptotic deterministic bounds -- from a single boundary gap through multi-gap and blockwise variants -- that control TV(P,hat P) using only the ordered logits. Using an exact head-tail decomposition, we prove that the output error factorizes as |Attn(q,K,V)-Attn_k(q,K,V)|_2=τ|μ_{tail}-μ_{head}|_2 with τ=TV(P,hat P), yielding a new head-tail diameter bound |Attn(q,K,V)-Attn_k(q,K,V)|_2leτ,diam_{H,T} and refinements linking the error to Var_P(V). Under an i.i.d. Gaussian score model s_isimmathcal N(μ,σ^2) we derive closed-form tail masses and an asymptotic rule for the minimal k_varepsilon ensuring TV(P,hat P)levarepsilon, namely k_varepsilon/napproxΦ_c(σ+Φ^{-1}(varepsilon)). Experiments on bert-base-uncased and synthetic logits confirm the predicted scaling of k_varepsilon/n and show that certified Top-k can reduce scored keys by 2-4times on average while meeting the prescribed total-variation budget.

Bayesian optimization (BO) has established itself as a leading strategy for efficiently optimizing expensive-to-evaluate functions. Existing BO methods mostly rely on Gaussian process (GP) surrogate models and are not applicable to (doubly-stochastic) Gaussian Cox processes, where the observation process is modulated by a latent intensity function modeled as a GP. In this paper, we propose a novel maximum a posteriori inference of Gaussian Cox processes. It leverages the Laplace approximation and change of kernel technique to transform the problem into a new reproducing kernel Hilbert space, where it becomes more tractable computationally. It enables us to obtain both a functional posterior of the latent intensity function and the covariance of the posterior, thus extending existing works that often focus on specific link functions or estimating the posterior mean. Using the result, we propose a BO framework based on the Gaussian Cox process model and further develop a Nystr\"om approximation for efficient computation. Extensive evaluations on various synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate significant improvement over state-of-the-art inference solutions for Gaussian Cox processes, as well as effective BO with a wide range of acquisition functions designed through the underlying Gaussian Cox process model.

We study the problem of robustly learning Gaussian Single Index Models (SIMs) in the presence of heavy-tailed noise and a constant fraction of adversarially corrupted covariates and responses. Prior work on robust recovery has considered settings such as linear regression (Pensia et al., JASA 2024), strictly monotonic link functions (Awasthi et al., NeurIPS 2022), and phase retrieval (Buna and Rebeschini, AISTATS 2025). However, these techniques do not extend to generic asymmetric non-monotonic link functions such as GeLU and Swish, which arise naturally as scalar primitives in modern gated neural architectures. We close this gap by giving the first robust recovery algorithm with near-linear sample and time complexity for generic non-monotonic link functions, thereby establishing the first robust recovery guarantees for a broad family of nonlinear SIMs for which no guarantees were previously known. Our central contribution is a new structural understanding of the Gaussian squared-loss landscape under adversarial contamination. Crucially, we prove that for a broad class of nonlinear non-monotonic SIMs, a dimension-independent, constant-radius convex basin exists around the ground truth and is efficiently reachable via robust spectral initialization even under adversarial contamination. Prior works fail to establish both guarantees simultaneously, thereby either breaking down under adversarial contamination or failing to handle generic non-monotonic link functions. Together, these structural insights yield a principled warm start for robust gradient descent that provably converges to a final estimation error of O(σsqrtε) in O(nd) time with O(d) samples, where ε is the contamination fraction.

The Beta kernel estimator offers a theoretically superior alternative to the Gaussian kernel for unit interval data, eliminating boundary bias without requiring reflection or transformation. However, its adoption remains limited by the lack of a reliable bandwidth selector; practitioners currently rely on iterative optimization methods that are computationally expensive and prone to instability. We derive the ``Beta Reference Rule,'' a fast, closed-form bandwidth selector based on the unweighted Asymptotic Mean Integrated Squared Error (AMISE) of a beta reference distribution. To address boundary integrability issues, we introduce a principled heuristic for U-shaped and J-shaped distributions. By employing a method-of-moments approximation, we reduce the bandwidth selection complexity from iterative optimization to O(1). Extensive Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that our rule matches the accuracy of numerical optimization while delivering a speedup of over 35,000 times. Real-world validation on socioeconomic data shows that it avoids the ``vanishing boundary'' and ``shoulder'' artifacts common to Gaussian-based methods. We provide a comprehensive, open-source Python package to facilitate the immediate adoption of the Beta kernel as a drop-in replacement for standard density estimation tools.

In learned image compression, probabilistic models play an essential role in characterizing the distribution of latent variables. The Gaussian model with mean and scale parameters has been widely used for its simplicity and effectiveness. Probabilistic models with more parameters, such as the Gaussian mixture models, can fit the distribution of latent variables more precisely, but the corresponding complexity will also be higher. To balance between compression performance and complexity, we extend the Gaussian model to the generalized Gaussian model for more flexible latent distribution modeling, introducing only one additional shape parameter, beta, than the Gaussian model. To enhance the performance of the generalized Gaussian model by alleviating the train-test mismatch, we propose improved training methods, including beta-dependent lower bounds for scale parameters and gradient rectification. Our proposed generalized Gaussian model, coupled with the improved training methods, is demonstrated to outperform the Gaussian and Gaussian mixture models on a variety of learned image compression methods.

Real-world datasets often exhibit temporal dynamics characterized by evolving data distributions. Disregarding this phenomenon, commonly referred to as concept drift, can significantly diminish a model's predictive accuracy. Furthermore, the presence of hyperparameters in online models exacerbates this issue. These parameters are typically fixed and cannot be dynamically adjusted by the user in response to the evolving data distribution. Gaussian Process (GP) models offer powerful non-parametric regression capabilities with uncertainty quantification, making them ideal for modeling complex data relationships in an online setting. However, conventional online GP methods face several critical limitations, including a lack of drift-awareness, reliance on fixed hyperparameters, vulnerability to data snooping, absence of a principled decay mechanism, and memory inefficiencies. In response, we propose DAO-GP (Drift-Aware Online Gaussian Process), a novel, fully adaptive, hyperparameter-free, decayed, and sparse non-linear regression model. DAO-GP features a built-in drift detection and adaptation mechanism that dynamically adjusts model behavior based on the severity of drift. Extensive empirical evaluations confirm DAO-GP's robustness across stationary conditions, diverse drift types (abrupt, incremental, gradual), and varied data characteristics. Analyses demonstrate its dynamic adaptation, efficient in-memory and decay-based management, and evolving inducing points. Compared with state-of-the-art parametric and non-parametric models, DAO-GP consistently achieves superior or competitive performance, establishing it as a drift-resilient solution for online non-linear regression.

A mixed Gaussian fractional process {Y(t)}_{t Bbb R} = {PX(t)}_{t Bbb R} is a multivariate stochastic process obtained by pre-multiplying a vector of independent, Gaussian fractional process entries X by a nonsingular matrix P. It is interpreted that Y is observable, while X is a hidden process occurring in an (unknown) system of coordinates P. Mixed processes naturally arise as approximations to solutions of physically relevant classes of multivariate fractional SDEs under aggregation. We propose a semiparametric two-step wavelet-based method for estimating both the demixing matrix P^{-1} and the memory parameters of X. The asymptotic normality of the estimators is established both in continuous and discrete time. Monte Carlo experiments show that the finite sample estimation performance is comparable to that of parametric methods, while being very computationally efficient. As applications, we model a bivariate time series of annual tree ring width measurements, and establish the asymptotic normality of the eigenstructure of sample wavelet matrices.

We present an algorithm for minimizing an objective with hard-to-compute gradients by using a related, easier-to-access function as a proxy. Our algorithm is based on approximate proximal point iterations on the proxy combined with relatively few stochastic gradients from the objective. When the difference between the objective and the proxy is delta-smooth, our algorithm guarantees convergence at a rate matching stochastic gradient descent on a delta-smooth objective, which can lead to substantially better sample efficiency. Our algorithm has many potential applications in machine learning, and provides a principled means of leveraging synthetic data, physics simulators, mixed public and private data, and more.

This work introduces the Efficient Transformed Gaussian Process (ETGP), a new way of creating C stochastic processes characterized by: 1) the C processes are non-stationary, 2) the C processes are dependent by construction without needing a mixing matrix, 3) training and making predictions is very efficient since the number of Gaussian Processes (GP) operations (e.g. inverting the inducing point's covariance matrix) do not depend on the number of processes. This makes the ETGP particularly suited for multi-class problems with a very large number of classes, which are the problems studied in this work. ETGPs exploit the recently proposed Transformed Gaussian Process (TGP), a stochastic process specified by transforming a Gaussian Process using an invertible transformation. However, unlike TGPs, ETGPs are constructed by transforming a single sample from a GP using C invertible transformations. We derive an efficient sparse variational inference algorithm for the proposed model and demonstrate its utility in 5 classification tasks which include low/medium/large datasets and a different number of classes, ranging from just a few to hundreds. Our results show that ETGPs, in general, outperform state-of-the-art methods for multi-class classification based on GPs, and have a lower computational cost (around one order of magnitude smaller).

Approximations to Gaussian processes based on inducing variables, combined with variational inference techniques, enable state-of-the-art sparse approaches to infer GPs at scale through mini batch-based learning. In this work, we address one limitation of sparse GPs, which is due to the challenge in dealing with a large number of inducing variables without imposing a special structure on the inducing inputs. In particular, we introduce a novel hierarchical prior, which imposes sparsity on the set of inducing variables. We treat our model variationally, and we experimentally show considerable computational gains compared to standard sparse GPs when sparsity on the inducing variables is realized considering the nearest inducing inputs of a random mini-batch of the data. We perform an extensive experimental validation that demonstrates the effectiveness of our approach compared to the state-of-the-art. Our approach enables the possibility to use sparse GPs using a large number of inducing points without incurring a prohibitive computational cost.

Despite their many desirable properties, Gaussian processes (GPs) are often compared unfavorably to deep neural networks (NNs) for lacking the ability to learn representations. Recent efforts to bridge the gap between GPs and deep NNs have yielded a new class of inter-domain variational GPs in which the inducing variables correspond to hidden units of a feedforward NN. In this work, we examine some practical issues associated with this approach and propose an extension that leverages the orthogonal decomposition of GPs to mitigate these limitations. In particular, we introduce spherical inter-domain features to construct more flexible data-dependent basis functions for both the principal and orthogonal components of the GP approximation and show that incorporating NN activation features under this framework not only alleviates these shortcomings but is more scalable than alternative strategies. Experiments on multiple benchmark datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach.

The Cox proportional hazards model is widely used in survival analysis to model time-to-event data. However, it faces significant computational challenges in the era of large-scale data, particularly when dealing with time-dependent covariates. This paper proposes a moment-assisted subsampling method that is both statistically and computationally efficient for inference under the Cox model. This efficiency is achieved by integrating the computationally efficient uniform subsampling estimator and whole data sample moments that are easy to compute even for large datasets. The resulting estimator is asymptotically normal with a smaller variance than the uniform subsampling estimator. Additionally, we derive the optimal sample moment for the Cox model that minimizes the asymptotic variance in Loewner order. With the optimal moment, the proposed estimator can achieve the same estimation efficiency as the whole data-based partial likelihood estimator while maintaining the computational advantages of subsampling. Simulation studies and real data analyses demonstrate the promising finite sample performance of the proposed estimator in terms of both estimation and computational efficiency.

Weak perturbations of equal size can produce terminal Wasserstein errors of different orders. For Gaussian-smoothed infinitely divisible laws, we differentiate distribution functions with respect to variance-weighted Lévy characteristics, including distributional directions generated by moving atoms. We obtain first- and second-order expansions uniform over Lipschitz tests. Gaussian analyticity identifies the signed second coefficient of the Wasserstein-1 distance when the first response is nonzero. When it vanishes, a finite second displacement moment yields a quadratic response, strictly positive for nonzero displacement dispersion. For local balanced remeshing, the error is comparable to the grid-alignment variance, giving sharp quadratic grid rates for compactly supported densities and nonaligned atomic sequences. We derive metric speed and length along admissible non-atomic curves and a response-based linear program with a certified oracle gap and consistent quadrature. We also establish the sharp vanishing-smoothing transition and a multivariate second-order expansion. The Supplement treats state-dependent responses and further stability estimates.

Many state-of-the-art hyperparameter optimization (HPO) algorithms rely on model-based optimizers that learn surrogate models of the target function to guide the search. Gaussian processes are the de facto surrogate model due to their ability to capture uncertainty but they make strong assumptions about the observation noise, which might not be warranted in practice. In this work, we propose to leverage conformalized quantile regression which makes minimal assumptions about the observation noise and, as a result, models the target function in a more realistic and robust fashion which translates to quicker HPO convergence on empirical benchmarks. To apply our method in a multi-fidelity setting, we propose a simple, yet effective, technique that aggregates observed results across different resource levels and outperforms conventional methods across many empirical tasks.

While 3D Gaussian Splatting has recently become popular for neural rendering, current methods rely on carefully engineered cloning and splitting strategies for placing Gaussians, which can lead to poor-quality renderings, and reliance on a good initialization. In this work, we rethink the set of 3D Gaussians as a random sample drawn from an underlying probability distribution describing the physical representation of the scene-in other words, Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) samples. Under this view, we show that the 3D Gaussian updates can be converted as Stochastic Gradient Langevin Dynamics (SGLD) updates by simply introducing noise. We then rewrite the densification and pruning strategies in 3D Gaussian Splatting as simply a deterministic state transition of MCMC samples, removing these heuristics from the framework. To do so, we revise the 'cloning' of Gaussians into a relocalization scheme that approximately preserves sample probability. To encourage efficient use of Gaussians, we introduce a regularizer that promotes the removal of unused Gaussians. On various standard evaluation scenes, we show that our method provides improved rendering quality, easy control over the number of Gaussians, and robustness to initialization.

Denoisers play a central role in many applications, from noise suppression in low-grade imaging sensors, to empowering score-based generative models. The latter category of methods makes use of Tweedie's formula, which links the posterior mean in Gaussian denoising (\ie the minimum MSE denoiser) with the score of the data distribution. Here, we derive a fundamental relation between the higher-order central moments of the posterior distribution, and the higher-order derivatives of the posterior mean. We harness this result for uncertainty quantification of pre-trained denoisers. Particularly, we show how to efficiently compute the principal components of the posterior distribution for any desired region of an image, as well as to approximate the full marginal distribution along those (or any other) one-dimensional directions. Our method is fast and memory-efficient, as it does not explicitly compute or store the high-order moment tensors and it requires no training or fine tuning of the denoiser. Code and examples are available on the project webpage in https://hilamanor.github.io/GaussianDenoisingPosterior/ .

A model involving Gaussian processes (GPs) is introduced to simultaneously handle multi-task learning, clustering, and prediction for multiple functional data. This procedure acts as a model-based clustering method for functional data as well as a learning step for subsequent predictions for new tasks. The model is instantiated as a mixture of multi-task GPs with common mean processes. A variational EM algorithm is derived for dealing with the optimisation of the hyper-parameters along with the hyper-posteriors' estimation of latent variables and processes. We establish explicit formulas for integrating the mean processes and the latent clustering variables within a predictive distribution, accounting for uncertainty on both aspects. This distribution is defined as a mixture of cluster-specific GP predictions, which enhances the performances when dealing with group-structured data. The model handles irregular grid of observations and offers different hypotheses on the covariance structure for sharing additional information across tasks. The performances on both clustering and prediction tasks are assessed through various simulated scenarios and real datasets. The overall algorithm, called MagmaClust, is publicly available as an R package.

In this work, we derive sharp non-asymptotic deviation bounds for weighted sums of Dirichlet random variables. These bounds are based on a novel integral representation of the density of a weighted Dirichlet sum. This representation allows us to obtain a Gaussian-like approximation for the sum distribution using geometry and complex analysis methods. Our results generalize similar bounds for the Beta distribution obtained in the seminal paper Alfers and Dinges [1984]. Additionally, our results can be considered a sharp non-asymptotic version of the inverse of Sanov's theorem studied by Ganesh and O'Connell [1999] in the Bayesian setting. Based on these results, we derive new deviation bounds for the Dirichlet process posterior means with application to Bayesian bootstrap. Finally, we apply our estimates to the analysis of the Multinomial Thompson Sampling (TS) algorithm in multi-armed bandits and significantly sharpen the existing regret bounds by making them independent of the size of the arms distribution support.

We develop a Gaussian comparison theory for posterior inference in non-Gaussian high-dimensional models. The framework allows for model misspecification and does not require the posterior distribution itself to be approximately Gaussian. Working directly with likelihood processes on separable function spaces, we establish explicit nonasymptotic free energy bounds controlled by first two moment discrepancies and local third moments. A perturbation-and-convexity argument transfers these comparisons to sandwich bounds for posterior mean squared error and posterior variance, including one-sided conclusions at nondifferentiable phase transitions. In high-dimensional product models, these conditions reduce to local moment controls and a canonical feature-radius scaling. Under weak regularity requirements, the resulting universality theory applies to a broad class of likelihood models, ranging from exponential families to more general regular local log-likelihoods. The framework is illustrated on sparse Bernoulli hypergraph inference.

In this paper, we study the problem of sampling from a probability distribution using Langevin-type dynamics. We consider overdamped Langevin dynamics perturbed by adding a Stratonovich perturbation that preserves reversibility. We prove an optimal scaling for the Stratonovich perturbation applied to Gaussian target distributions and derive an algorithm to construct such perturbation. Our theoretical results are supplemented by numerical experiments in which we compare our proposed method with nonreversible samplers and overdamped Langevin dynamics. Our numerical experiments demonstrate the efficiency of the approach beyond the quadratic case.

Gaussian processes (GP) are one of the most successful frameworks to model uncertainty. However, GP optimization (e.g., GP-UCB) suffers from major scalability issues. Experimental time grows linearly with the number of evaluations, unless candidates are selected in batches (e.g., using GP-BUCB) and evaluated in parallel. Furthermore, computational cost is often prohibitive since algorithms such as GP-BUCB require a time at least quadratic in the number of dimensions and iterations to select each batch. In this paper, we introduce BBKB (Batch Budgeted Kernel Bandits), the first no-regret GP optimization algorithm that provably runs in near-linear time and selects candidates in batches. This is obtained with a new guarantee for the tracking of the posterior variances that allows BBKB to choose increasingly larger batches, improving over GP-BUCB. Moreover, we show that the same bound can be used to adaptively delay costly updates to the sparse GP approximation used by BBKB, achieving a near-constant per-step amortized cost. These findings are then confirmed in several experiments, where BBKB is much faster than state-of-the-art methods.

In this paper we develop a dynamic form of Bayesian optimization for machine learning models with the goal of rapidly finding good hyperparameter settings. Our method uses the partial information gained during the training of a machine learning model in order to decide whether to pause training and start a new model, or resume the training of a previously-considered model. We specifically tailor our method to machine learning problems by developing a novel positive-definite covariance kernel to capture a variety of training curves. Furthermore, we develop a Gaussian process prior that scales gracefully with additional temporal observations. Finally, we provide an information-theoretic framework to automate the decision process. Experiments on several common machine learning models show that our approach is extremely effective in practice.

By learning the gradient of smoothed data distributions, diffusion models can iteratively generate samples from complex distributions. The learned score function enables their generalization capabilities, but how the learned score relates to the score of the underlying data manifold remains largely unclear. Here, we aim to elucidate this relationship by comparing learned neural scores to the scores of two kinds of analytically tractable distributions: Gaussians and Gaussian mixtures. The simplicity of the Gaussian model makes it theoretically attractive, and we show that it admits a closed-form solution and predicts many qualitative aspects of sample generation dynamics. We claim that the learned neural score is dominated by its linear (Gaussian) approximation for moderate to high noise scales, and supply both theoretical and empirical arguments to support this claim. Moreover, the Gaussian approximation empirically works for a larger range of noise scales than naive theory suggests it should, and is preferentially learned early in training. At smaller noise scales, we observe that learned scores are better described by a coarse-grained (Gaussian mixture) approximation of training data than by the score of the training distribution, a finding consistent with generalization. Our findings enable us to precisely predict the initial phase of trained models' sampling trajectories through their Gaussian approximations. We show that this allows the skipping of the first 15-30% of sampling steps while maintaining high sample quality (with a near state-of-the-art FID score of 1.93 on CIFAR-10 unconditional generation). This forms the foundation of a novel hybrid sampling method, termed analytical teleportation, which can seamlessly integrate with and accelerate existing samplers, including DPM-Solver-v3 and UniPC. Our findings suggest ways to improve the design and training of diffusion models.

Conventional uncertainty-aware temporal difference (TD) learning often assumes a zero-mean Gaussian distribution for TD errors, leading to inaccurate error representations and compromised uncertainty estimation. We introduce a novel framework for generalized Gaussian error modeling in deep reinforcement learning to enhance the flexibility of error distribution modeling by incorporating additional higher-order moment, particularly kurtosis, thereby improving the estimation and mitigation of data-dependent aleatoric uncertainty. We examine the influence of the shape parameter of the generalized Gaussian distribution (GGD) on aleatoric uncertainty and provide a closed-form expression that demonstrates an inverse relationship between uncertainty and the shape parameter. Additionally, we propose a theoretically grounded weighting scheme to address epistemic uncertainty by fully leveraging the GGD. We refine batch inverse variance weighting with bias reduction and kurtosis considerations, enhancing robustness. Experiments with policy gradient algorithms demonstrate significant performance gains.

Recent works have revealed that infinitely-wide feed-forward or recurrent neural networks of any architecture correspond to Gaussian processes referred to as Neural Network Gaussian Processes (NNGPs). While these works have extended the class of neural networks converging to Gaussian processes significantly, however, there has been little focus on broadening the class of stochastic processes that such neural networks converge to. In this work, inspired by the scale mixture of Gaussian random variables, we propose the scale mixture of NNGPs for which we introduce a prior distribution on the scale of the last-layer parameters. We show that simply introducing a scale prior on the last-layer parameters can turn infinitely-wide neural networks of any architecture into a richer class of stochastic processes. With certain scale priors, we obtain heavy-tailed stochastic processes, and in the case of inverse gamma priors, we recover Student's t processes. We further analyze the distributions of the neural networks initialized with our prior setting and trained with gradient descents and obtain similar results as for NNGPs. We present a practical posterior-inference algorithm for the scale mixture of NNGPs and empirically demonstrate its usefulness on regression and classification tasks. In particular, we show that in both tasks, the heavy-tailed stochastic processes obtained from our framework are robust to out-of-distribution data.

We study generative modeling on convex domains using flow matching and mirror maps, and identify two fundamental challenges. First, standard log-barrier mirror maps induce heavy-tailed dual distributions, leading to ill-posed dynamics. Second, coupling with Gaussian priors performs poorly when matching heavy-tailed targets. To address these issues, we propose Mirror Flow Matching based on a regularized mirror map that controls dual tail behavior and guarantees finite moments, together with coupling to a Student-t prior that aligns with heavy-tailed targets and stabilizes training. We provide theoretical guarantees, including spatial Lipschitzness and temporal regularity of the velocity field, Wasserstein convergence rates for flow matching with Student-t priors and primal-space guarantees for constrained generation, under varepsilon-accurate learned velocity fields. Empirically, our method outperforms baselines in synthetic convex-domain simulations and achieves competitive sample quality on real-world constrained generative tasks.

Score-based diffusion models generate samples from an unknown target distribution using a time-reversed diffusion process. While such models represent state-of-the-art approaches in industrial applications such as artificial image generation, it has recently been noted that their performance can be further improved by considering injection noise with heavy tailed characteristics. Here, I present a generalization of generative diffusion processes to a wide class of non-Gaussian noise processes. I consider forward processes driven by standard Gaussian noise with super-imposed Poisson jumps representing a finite activity Levy process. The generative process is shown to be governed by a generalized score function that depends on the jump amplitude distribution and can be estimated by minimizing a simple MSE loss as in conventional Gaussian models. Both probability flow ODE and SDE formulations are derived using basic technical effort. A detailed implementation for a pure jump process with Laplace distributed amplitudes yields a generalized score function in closed analytical form and is shown to outperform the equivalent Gaussian model in specific parameter regimes.

We give an improved theoretical analysis of score-based generative modeling. Under a score estimate with small L^2 error (averaged across timesteps), we provide efficient convergence guarantees for any data distribution with second-order moment, by either employing early stopping or assuming smoothness condition on the score function of the data distribution. Our result does not rely on any log-concavity or functional inequality assumption and has a logarithmic dependence on the smoothness. In particular, we show that under only a finite second moment condition, approximating the following in reverse KL divergence in epsilon-accuracy can be done in tilde Oleft(d log (1/delta){epsilon}right) steps: 1) the variance-delta Gaussian perturbation of any data distribution; 2) data distributions with 1/delta-smooth score functions. Our analysis also provides a quantitative comparison between different discrete approximations and may guide the choice of discretization points in practice.

Gaussian process (GP) regression provides a strategy for accelerating saddle point searches on high-dimensional energy surfaces by reducing the number of times the energy and its derivatives with respect to atomic coordinates need to be evaluated. The computational overhead in the hyperparameter optimization can, however, be large and make the approach inefficient. Failures can also occur if the search ventures too far into regions that are not represented well enough by the GP model. Here, these challenges are resolved by using geometry-aware optimal transport measures and an active pruning strategy using a summation over Wasserstein-1 distances for each atom-type in farthest-point sampling, selecting a fixed-size subset of geometrically diverse configurations to avoid rapidly increasing cost of GP updates as more observations are made. Stability is enhanced by permutation-invariant metric that provides a reliable trust radius for early-stopping and a logarithmic barrier penalty for the growth of the signal variance. These physically motivated algorithmic changes prove their efficacy by reducing to less than a half the mean computational time on a set of 238 challenging configurations from a previously published data set of chemical reactions. With these improvements, the GP approach is established as, a robust and scalable algorithm for accelerating saddle point searches when the evaluation of the energy and atomic forces requires significant computational effort.

In location estimation, we are given n samples from a known distribution f shifted by an unknown translation lambda, and want to estimate lambda as precisely as possible. Asymptotically, the maximum likelihood estimate achieves the Cram\'er-Rao bound of error mathcal N(0, 1{nmathcal I}), where mathcal I is the Fisher information of f. However, the n required for convergence depends on f, and may be arbitrarily large. We build on the theory using smoothed estimators to bound the error for finite n in terms of mathcal I_r, the Fisher information of the r-smoothed distribution. As n to infty, r to 0 at an explicit rate and this converges to the Cram\'er-Rao bound. We (1) improve the prior work for 1-dimensional f to converge for constant failure probability in addition to high probability, and (2) extend the theory to high-dimensional distributions. In the process, we prove a new bound on the norm of a high-dimensional random variable whose 1-dimensional projections are subgamma, which may be of independent interest.

Tucker decomposition is a powerful tensor model to handle multi-aspect data. It demonstrates the low-rank property by decomposing the grid-structured data as interactions between a core tensor and a set of object representations (factors). A fundamental assumption of such decomposition is that there are finite objects in each aspect or mode, corresponding to discrete indexes of data entries. However, real-world data is often not naturally posed in this setting. For example, geographic data is represented as continuous indexes of latitude and longitude coordinates, and cannot fit tensor models directly. To generalize Tucker decomposition to such scenarios, we propose Functional Bayesian Tucker Decomposition (FunBaT). We treat the continuous-indexed data as the interaction between the Tucker core and a group of latent functions. We use Gaussian processes (GP) as functional priors to model the latent functions. Then, we convert each GP into a state-space prior by constructing an equivalent stochastic differential equation (SDE) to reduce computational cost. An efficient inference algorithm is developed for scalable posterior approximation based on advanced message-passing techniques. The advantage of our method is shown in both synthetic data and several real-world applications. We release the code of FunBaT at https://github.com/xuangu-fang/Functional-Bayesian-Tucker-Decomposition.

Generating samples from limited information is a fundamental problem across scientific domains. Classical maximum entropy methods provide principled uncertainty quantification from moment constraints but require sampling via MCMC or Langevin dynamics, which typically exhibit exponential slowdown in high dimensions. In contrast, generative models based on diffusion and flow matching efficiently transport noise to data but offer limited theoretical guarantees and can overfit when data is scarce. We introduce Moment Guided Diffusion (MGD), which combines elements of both approaches. Building on the stochastic interpolant framework, MGD samples maximum entropy distributions by solving a stochastic differential equation that guides moments toward prescribed values in finite time, thereby avoiding slow mixing in equilibrium-based methods. We formally obtain, in the large-volatility limit, convergence of MGD to the maximum entropy distribution and derive a tractable estimator of the resulting entropy computed directly from the dynamics. Applications to financial time series, turbulent flows, and cosmological fields using wavelet scattering moments yield estimates of negentropy for high-dimensional multiscale processes.

Constant-stepsize stochastic approximation (SA) is widely used in learning for computational efficiency. For a fixed stepsize, the iterates typically admit a stationary distribution that is rarely tractable. Prior work shows that as the stepsize αdownarrow 0, the centered-and-scaled steady state converges weakly to a Gaussian random vector. However, for fixed α, this weak convergence offers no usable error bound for approximating the steady-state by its Gaussian limit. This paper provides explicit, non-asymptotic error bounds for fixed α. We first prove general-purpose theorems that bound the Wasserstein distance between the centered-scaled steady state and an appropriate Gaussian distribution, under regularity conditions for drift and moment conditions for noise. To ensure broad applicability, we cover both i.i.d. and Markovian noise models. We then instantiate these theorems for three representative SA settings: (1) stochastic gradient descent (SGD) for smooth strongly convex objectives, (2) linear SA, and (3) contractive nonlinear SA. We obtain dimension- and stepsize-dependent, explicit bounds in Wasserstein distance of order α^{1/2}log(1/α) for small α. Building on the Wasserstein approximation error, we further derive non-uniform Berry--Esseen-type tail bounds that compare the steady-state tail probability to Gaussian tails. We achieve an explicit error term that decays in both the deviation level and stepsize α. We adapt the same analysis for SGD beyond strongly convexity and study general convex objectives. We identify a non-Gaussian (Gibbs) limiting law under the correct scaling, which is validated numerically, and provide a corresponding pre-limit Wasserstein error bound.

We present a novel stochastic variational Gaussian process (GP) inference method, based on a posterior over a learnable set of weighted pseudo input-output points (coresets). Instead of a free-form variational family, the proposed coreset-based, variational tempered family for GPs (CVTGP) is defined in terms of the GP prior and the data-likelihood; hence, accommodating the modeling inductive biases. We derive CVTGP's lower bound for the log-marginal likelihood via marginalization of the proposed posterior over latent GP coreset variables, and show it is amenable to stochastic optimization. CVTGP reduces the learnable parameter size to O(M), enjoys numerical stability, and maintains O(M^3) time- and O(M^2) space-complexity, by leveraging a coreset-based tempered posterior that, in turn, provides sparse and explainable representations of the data. Results on simulated and real-world regression problems with Gaussian observation noise validate that CVTGP provides better evidence lower-bound estimates and predictive root mean squared error than alternative stochastic GP inference methods.

We present a scheme to obtain an inexpensive and reliable estimate of the uncertainty associated with the predictions of a machine-learning model of atomic and molecular properties. The scheme is based on resampling, with multiple models being generated based on sub-sampling of the same training data. The accuracy of the uncertainty prediction can be benchmarked by maximum likelihood estimation, which can also be used to correct for correlations between resampled models, and to improve the performance of the uncertainty estimation by a cross-validation procedure. In the case of sparse Gaussian Process Regression models, this resampled estimator can be evaluated at negligible cost. We demonstrate the reliability of these estimates for the prediction of molecular energetics, and for the estimation of nuclear chemical shieldings in molecular crystals. Extension to estimate the uncertainty in energy differences, forces, or other correlated predictions is straightforward. This method can be easily applied to other machine learning schemes, and will be beneficial to make data-driven predictions more reliable, and to facilitate training-set optimization and active-learning strategies.

Forecasting on sparse multivariate time series (MTS) aims to model the predictors of future values of time series given their incomplete past, which is important for many emerging applications. However, most existing methods process MTS's individually, and do not leverage the dynamic distributions underlying the MTS's, leading to sub-optimal results when the sparsity is high. To address this challenge, we propose a novel generative model, which tracks the transition of latent clusters, instead of isolated feature representations, to achieve robust modeling. It is characterized by a newly designed dynamic Gaussian mixture distribution, which captures the dynamics of clustering structures, and is used for emitting timeseries. The generative model is parameterized by neural networks. A structured inference network is also designed for enabling inductive analysis. A gating mechanism is further introduced to dynamically tune the Gaussian mixture distributions. Extensive experimental results on a variety of real-life datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

Gaussian processes (GPs) stand as crucial tools in machine learning and signal processing, with their effectiveness hinging on kernel design and hyper-parameter optimization. This paper presents a novel GP linear multiple kernel (LMK) and a generic sparsity-aware distributed learning framework to optimize the hyper-parameters. The newly proposed grid spectral mixture product (GSMP) kernel is tailored for multi-dimensional data, effectively reducing the number of hyper-parameters while maintaining good approximation capability. We further demonstrate that the associated hyper-parameter optimization of this kernel yields sparse solutions. To exploit the inherent sparsity of the solutions, we introduce the Sparse LInear Multiple Kernel Learning (SLIM-KL) framework. The framework incorporates a quantized alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) scheme for collaborative learning among multiple agents, where the local optimization problem is solved using a distributed successive convex approximation (DSCA) algorithm. SLIM-KL effectively manages large-scale hyper-parameter optimization for the proposed kernel, simultaneously ensuring data privacy and minimizing communication costs. Theoretical analysis establishes convergence guarantees for the learning framework, while experiments on diverse datasets demonstrate the superior prediction performance and efficiency of our proposed methods.

We introduce a theoretical framework for sampling from unnormalized densities based on a smoothing scheme that uses an isotropic Gaussian kernel with a single fixed noise scale. We prove one can decompose sampling from a density (minimal assumptions made on the density) into a sequence of sampling from log-concave conditional densities via accumulation of noisy measurements with equal noise levels. Our construction is unique in that it keeps track of a history of samples, making it non-Markovian as a whole, but it is lightweight algorithmically as the history only shows up in the form of a running empirical mean of samples. Our sampling algorithm generalizes walk-jump sampling (Saremi & Hyv\"arinen, 2019). The "walk" phase becomes a (non-Markovian) chain of (log-concave) Markov chains. The "jump" from the accumulated measurements is obtained by empirical Bayes. We study our sampling algorithm quantitatively using the 2-Wasserstein metric and compare it with various Langevin MCMC algorithms. We also report a remarkable capacity of our algorithm to "tunnel" between modes of a distribution.

High-dimensional mean testing is challenging under strong dependence and heavy tails, since classical Hotelling statistics are ill posed and regularized versions based on sample moments remain sensitive to outliers. This paper develops a robust regularized Hotelling framework for one-sample mean inference under elliptical distributions. The proposed HRST statistic combines a Hettmansperger-Randles spatial location estimator with the inverse of a trace-normalized shrinkage Tyler scatter matrix, and calibrates the resulting quadratic form through ridge-resolvent random-matrix theory rather than sparse covariance or precision-matrix assumptions. In the regime p/nto yin(0,infty), allowing a vanishing lower bulk edge and finite-rank diverging spikes, we establish feasible asymptotic normality for each shrinkage level, derive local-alternative distributions with explicit noncentrality parameters, and prove joint Gaussian limits over finite shrinkage grids. These results justify an adaptive Cauchy combination test across shrinkage levels. Simulations and a paired tumor-normal gene-expression study show that HRST maintains size and improves robustness under heavy-tailed distributions while retaining power under strong correlation.

We propose a machine learning method to model molecular tensorial quantities, namely the magnetic anisotropy tensor, based on the Gaussian-moment neural-network approach. We demonstrate that the proposed methodology can achieve an accuracy of 0.3--0.4 cm^{-1} and has excellent generalization capability for out-of-sample configurations. Moreover, in combination with machine-learned interatomic potential energies based on Gaussian moments, our approach can be applied to study the dynamic behavior of magnetic anisotropy tensors and provide a unique insight into spin-phonon relaxation.

This paper introduces a structural equation formulation that gives rise to a new family of quasi-periodic Gaussian processes, useful to process a broad class of natural and physiological signals. The proposed formulation simplifies generation and forecasting, and provides hyperparameter estimates, which we exploit in a convergent and consistent iterative estimation algorithm. A bootstrap approach for standard error estimation and confidence intervals is also provided. We demonstrate the computational and scaling benefits of the proposed approach on a broad class of problems, including water level tidal analysis, CO_{2} emission data, and sunspot numbers data. By leveraging the structural equations, our method reduces the cost of likelihood evaluations and predictions from O(k^2 p^2) to O(p^2), significantly improving scalability.

Counterfactual generation seeks to sample outcomes under a hypothetical intervention or decision using observational data collected under the factual assignment mechanism. We develop a flow-matching approach that combines a sample-split, doubly robust training objective with a learned coupling between observed source outcomes and target outcomes drawn from a fitted conditional outcome model. To enable finite-step generation, we leverage a score-corrected stochastic sampler based on a Gaussian-smoothed interpolation. Our main theoretical contribution is a coupling-sensitive KL bound for constant-step Euler discretization: the error is controlled by moments of the source--target displacement under the chosen coupling, rather than by global uniform regularity of the velocity field, and has near-linear dependence on the ambient dimension. We also establish finite-sample non-parametric guarantees for the learned velocity and score fields when both the conditional outcome model and the source-target coupling are estimated from data. These bounds separate approximation, coupling-replacement, nuisance-estimation, generalization, and Monte Carlo errors and, combined with the sampler analysis, yield an end-to-end guarantee for counterfactual generation. Experiments on synthetic and semi-synthetic image benchmarks support the coupling-dependent theory and show that, at finite discretization budgets, the stochastic sampler can outperform the corresponding deterministic ODE sampler.

Data augmentation is a popular tool for single source domain generalization, which expands the source domain by generating simulated ones, improving generalization on unseen target domains. In this work, we show that the performance of such augmentation-based methods in the target domains universally fluctuates during training, posing challenges in model selection under realistic scenarios. We argue that the fluctuation stems from the inability of the model to accumulate the knowledge learned from diverse augmentations, exacerbating feature distortion during training. Based on this observation, we propose a novel generalization method, coined Parameter-Space Ensemble with Entropy Regularization (PEER), that uses a proxy model to learn the augmented data on behalf of the main model. The main model is updated by averaging its parameters with the proxy model, progressively accumulating knowledge over the training steps. Maximizing the mutual information between the output representations of the two models guides the learning process of the proxy model, mitigating feature distortion during training. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of PEER in reducing the OOD performance fluctuation and enhancing generalization across various datasets, including PACS, Digits, Office-Home, and VLCS. Notably, our method with simple random augmentation achieves state-of-the-art performance, surpassing prior approaches on sDG that utilize complex data augmentation strategies.

Several recent trends in machine learning theory and practice, from the design of state-of-the-art Gaussian Process to the convergence analysis of deep neural nets (DNNs) under stochastic gradient descent (SGD), have found it fruitful to study wide random neural networks. Central to these approaches are certain scaling limits of such networks. We unify these results by introducing a notion of a straightline tensor program that can express most neural network computations, and we characterize its scaling limit when its tensors are large and randomized. From our framework follows (1) the convergence of random neural networks to Gaussian processes for architectures such as recurrent neural networks, convolutional neural networks, residual networks, attention, and any combination thereof, with or without batch normalization; (2) conditions under which the gradient independence assumption -- that weights in backpropagation can be assumed to be independent from weights in the forward pass -- leads to correct computation of gradient dynamics, and corrections when it does not; (3) the convergence of the Neural Tangent Kernel, a recently proposed kernel used to predict training dynamics of neural networks under gradient descent, at initialization for all architectures in (1) without batch normalization. Mathematically, our framework is general enough to rederive classical random matrix results such as the semicircle and the Marchenko-Pastur laws, as well as recent results in neural network Jacobian singular values. We hope our work opens a way toward design of even stronger Gaussian Processes, initialization schemes to avoid gradient explosion/vanishing, and deeper understanding of SGD dynamics in modern architectures.

Given a stationary state-space model that relates a sequence of hidden states and corresponding measurements or observations, Bayesian filtering provides a principled statistical framework for inferring the posterior distribution of the current state given all measurements up to the present time. For example, the Apollo lunar module implemented a Kalman filter to infer its location from a sequence of earth-based radar measurements and land safely on the moon. To perform Bayesian filtering, we require a measurement model that describes the conditional distribution of each observation given state. The Kalman filter takes this measurement model to be linear, Gaussian. Here we show how a nonlinear, Gaussian approximation to the distribution of state given observation can be used in conjunction with Bayes' rule to build a nonlinear, non-Gaussian measurement model. The resulting approach, called the Discriminative Kalman Filter (DKF), retains fast closed-form updates for the posterior. We argue there are many cases where the distribution of state given measurement is better-approximated as Gaussian, especially when the dimensionality of measurements far exceeds that of states and the Bernstein-von Mises theorem applies. Online neural decoding for brain-computer interfaces provides a motivating example, where filtering incorporates increasingly detailed measurements of neural activity to provide users control over external devices. Within the BrainGate2 clinical trial, the DKF successfully enabled three volunteers with quadriplegia to control an on-screen cursor in real-time using mental imagery alone. Participant "T9" used the DKF to type out messages on a tablet PC.

We show via a combination of mathematical arguments and empirical evidence that data distributions sampled from diffusion models satisfy a Concentration of Measure Property saying that any Lipschitz 1-dimensional projection of a random vector is not too far from its mean with high probability. This implies that such models are quite restrictive and gives an explanation for a fact previously observed in the literature that conventional diffusion models cannot capture "heavy-tailed" data (i.e. data x for which the norm |x|_2 does not possess a sub-Gaussian tail) well. We then proceed to train a generalized linear model using stochastic gradient descent (SGD) on the diffusion-generated data for a multiclass classification task and observe empirically that a Gaussian universality result holds for the test error. In other words, the test error depends only on the first and second order statistics of the diffusion-generated data in the linear setting. Results of such forms are desirable because they allow one to assume the data itself is Gaussian for analyzing performance of the trained classifier. Finally, we note that current approaches to proving universality do not apply to this case as the covariance matrices of the data tend to have vanishing minimum singular values for the diffusion-generated data, while the current proofs assume that this is not the case (see Subsection 3.4 for more details). This leaves extending previous mathematical universality results as an intriguing open question.

We give the first efficient algorithm for learning halfspaces in the testable learning model recently defined by Rubinfeld and Vasilyan (2023). In this model, a learner certifies that the accuracy of its output hypothesis is near optimal whenever the training set passes an associated test, and training sets drawn from some target distribution -- e.g., the Gaussian -- must pass the test. This model is more challenging than distribution-specific agnostic or Massart noise models where the learner is allowed to fail arbitrarily if the distributional assumption does not hold. We consider the setting where the target distribution is Gaussian (or more generally any strongly log-concave distribution) in d dimensions and the noise model is either Massart or adversarial (agnostic). For Massart noise, our tester-learner runs in polynomial time and outputs a hypothesis with (information-theoretically optimal) error opt + epsilon for any strongly log-concave target distribution. For adversarial noise, our tester-learner obtains error O(opt) + epsilon in polynomial time when the target distribution is Gaussian; for strongly log-concave distributions, we obtain O(opt) + epsilon in quasipolynomial time. Prior work on testable learning ignores the labels in the training set and checks that the empirical moments of the covariates are close to the moments of the base distribution. Here we develop new tests of independent interest that make critical use of the labels and combine them with the moment-matching approach of Gollakota et al. (2023). This enables us to simulate a variant of the algorithm of Diakonikolas et al. (2020) for learning noisy halfspaces using nonconvex SGD but in the testable learning setting.

We study the problem of learning mixtures of Gaussians with censored data. Statistical learning with censored data is a classical problem, with numerous practical applications, however, finite-sample guarantees for even simple latent variable models such as Gaussian mixtures are missing. Formally, we are given censored data from a mixture of univariate Gaussians $sum_{i=1}^k w_i N(mu_i,sigma^2), i.e. the sample is observed only if it lies inside a set S. The goal is to learn the weights w_i and the means \mu_i. We propose an algorithm that takes only 1{\varepsilon^{O(k)}} samples to estimate the weights w_i and the means \mu_i within \varepsilon$ error.

Testing equality of two high-dimensional covariance matrices is challenging when many entries differ only slightly. Dependence among sample covariance entries can also affect the finite-sample size and power of tests that aggregate their differences. We propose a studentized ell_2-type statistic that averages squared, marginally standardized differences between corresponding entries of the two sample covariance matrices. Before constructing the statistic, we apply the same nonsingular linear transformation to both samples. In the transformed coordinates, the covariance-equality hypothesis is unchanged, whereas the standardized differences and correlations among their estimators generally change. The transformation can therefore incorporate structural or scientific information without reducing dimension. We approximate the null distribution using a Gaussian multiplier bootstrap that uses coordinatewise studentization and avoids forming or inverting the full covariance matrix of the vectorized sample covariance entries. For deterministic transformations, we derive nonasymptotic Gaussian and bootstrap approximation bounds and establish asymptotic size validity and power consistency. We also show that replacing a population transformation by a same-sample estimator leaves the statistic and bootstrap critical value asymptotically unchanged in relative terms under an operator-norm convergence condition. Simulations show that suitable transformations improve size accuracy and power under weak dependence. An analysis of breast cancer gene-expression data illustrates the method.

Deep generative models are routinely used in generating samples from complex, high-dimensional distributions. Despite their apparent successes, their statistical properties are not well understood. A common assumption is that with enough training data and sufficiently large neural networks, deep generative model samples will have arbitrarily small errors in sampling from any continuous target distribution. We set up a unifying framework that debunks this belief. We demonstrate that broad classes of deep generative models, including variational autoencoders and generative adversarial networks, are not universal generators. Under the predominant case of Gaussian latent variables, these models can only generate concentrated samples that exhibit light tails. Using tools from concentration of measure and convex geometry, we give analogous results for more general log-concave and strongly log-concave latent variable distributions. We extend our results to diffusion models via a reduction argument. We use the Gromov--Levy inequality to give similar guarantees when the latent variables lie on manifolds with positive Ricci curvature. These results shed light on the limited capacity of common deep generative models to handle heavy tails. We illustrate the empirical relevance of our work with simulations and financial data.

We propose two approaches to extend the notion of knowledge distillation to Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) and Gaussian Process Classification (GPC); data-centric and distribution-centric. The data-centric approach resembles most current distillation techniques for machine learning, and refits a model on deterministic predictions from the teacher, while the distribution-centric approach, re-uses the full probabilistic posterior for the next iteration. By analyzing the properties of these approaches, we show that the data-centric approach for GPR closely relates to known results for self-distillation of kernel ridge regression and that the distribution-centric approach for GPR corresponds to ordinary GPR with a very particular choice of hyperparameters. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the distribution-centric approach for GPC approximately corresponds to data duplication and a particular scaling of the covariance and that the data-centric approach for GPC requires redefining the model from a Binomial likelihood to a continuous Bernoulli likelihood to be well-specified. To the best of our knowledge, our proposed approaches are the first to formulate knowledge distillation specifically for Gaussian Process models.

A neural architecture with randomly initialized weights, in the infinite width limit, is equivalent to a Gaussian Random Field whose covariance function is the so-called Neural Network Gaussian Process kernel (NNGP). We prove that a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) defined by the NNGP contains only functions that can be approximated by the architecture. To achieve a certain approximation error the required number of neurons in each layer is defined by the RKHS norm of the target function. Moreover, the approximation can be constructed from a supervised dataset by a random multi-layer representation of an input vector, together with training of the last layer's weights. For a 2-layer NN and a domain equal to an n-1-dimensional sphere in {mathbb R}^n, we compare the number of neurons required by Barron's theorem and by the multi-layer features construction. We show that if eigenvalues of the integral operator of the NNGP decay slower than k^{-n-2{3}} where k is an order of an eigenvalue, then our theorem guarantees a more succinct neural network approximation than Barron's theorem. We also make some computational experiments to verify our theoretical findings. Our experiments show that realistic neural networks easily learn target functions even when both theorems do not give any guarantees.

Conventionally, in a differentially private additive noise mechanism, independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) noise samples are added to each coordinate of the response. In this work, we formally present the addition of noise that is independent but not identically distributed (i.n.i.d.) across the coordinates to achieve tighter privacy-accuracy trade-off by exploiting coordinate-wise disparity in privacy leakage. In particular, we study the i.n.i.d. Gaussian and Laplace mechanisms and obtain the conditions under which these mechanisms guarantee privacy. The optimal choice of parameters that ensure these conditions are derived considering (weighted) mean squared and ell_{p}^{p}-errors as measures of accuracy. Theoretical analyses and numerical simulations demonstrate that the i.n.i.d. mechanisms achieve higher utility for the given privacy requirements compared to their i.i.d. counterparts. One of the interesting observations is that the Laplace mechanism outperforms Gaussian even in high dimensions, as opposed to the popular belief, if the irregularity in coordinate-wise sensitivities is exploited. We also demonstrate how the i.n.i.d. noise can improve the performance in private (a) coordinate descent, (b) principal component analysis, and (c) deep learning with group clipping.

In this manuscript we consider the problem of generalized linear estimation on Gaussian mixture data with labels given by a single-index model. Our first result is a sharp asymptotic expression for the test and training errors in the high-dimensional regime. Motivated by the recent stream of results on the Gaussian universality of the test and training errors in generalized linear estimation, we ask ourselves the question: "when is a single Gaussian enough to characterize the error?". Our formula allow us to give sharp answers to this question, both in the positive and negative directions. More precisely, we show that the sufficient conditions for Gaussian universality (or lack of thereof) crucially depend on the alignment between the target weights and the means and covariances of the mixture clusters, which we precisely quantify. In the particular case of least-squares interpolation, we prove a strong universality property of the training error, and show it follows a simple, closed-form expression. Finally, we apply our results to real datasets, clarifying some recent discussion in the literature about Gaussian universality of the errors in this context.

We design efficient approximation algorithms for maximizing the expectation of the supremum of families of Gaussian random variables. In particular, let OPT:=max_{σ_1,cdots,σ_n}Eleft[sum_{j=1}^{m}max_{iin S_j} X_iright], where X_i are Gaussian, S_jsubset[n] and sum_iσ_i^2=1, then our theoretical results include: - We characterize the optimal variance allocation -- it concentrates on a small subset of variables as |S_j| increases, - A polynomial time approximation scheme (PTAS) for computing OPT when m=1, and - An O(log n) approximation algorithm for computing OPT for general m>1. Such expectation maximization problems occur in diverse applications, ranging from utility maximization in auctions markets to learning mixture models in quantitative genetics.

Typical generative diffusion models rely on a Gaussian diffusion process for training the backward transformations, which can then be used to generate samples from Gaussian noise. However, real world data often takes place in discrete-state spaces, including many scientific applications. Here, we develop a theoretical formulation for arbitrary discrete-state Markov processes in the forward diffusion process using exact (as opposed to variational) analysis. We relate the theory to the existing continuous-state Gaussian diffusion as well as other approaches to discrete diffusion, and identify the corresponding reverse-time stochastic process and score function in the continuous-time setting, and the reverse-time mapping in the discrete-time setting. As an example of this framework, we introduce ``Blackout Diffusion'', which learns to produce samples from an empty image instead of from noise. Numerical experiments on the CIFAR-10, Binarized MNIST, and CelebA datasets confirm the feasibility of our approach. Generalizing from specific (Gaussian) forward processes to discrete-state processes without a variational approximation sheds light on how to interpret diffusion models, which we discuss.

Measuring geometric similarity between high-dimensional network representations is a topic of longstanding interest to neuroscience and deep learning. Although many methods have been proposed, only a few works have rigorously analyzed their statistical efficiency or quantified estimator uncertainty in data-limited regimes. Here, we derive upper and lower bounds on the worst-case convergence of standard estimators of shape distancex2014a measure of representational dissimilarity proposed by Williams et al. (2021).These bounds reveal the challenging nature of the problem in high-dimensional feature spaces. To overcome these challenges, we introduce a new method-of-moments estimator with a tunable bias-variance tradeoff. We show that this estimator achieves substantially lower bias than standard estimators in simulation and on neural data, particularly in high-dimensional settings. Thus, we lay the foundation for a rigorous statistical theory for high-dimensional shape analysis, and we contribute a new estimation method that is well-suited to practical scientific settings.

Motivated by a wide variety of applications, ranging from stochastic optimization to dimension reduction through variable selection, the problem of estimating gradients accurately is of crucial importance in statistics and learning theory. We consider here the classic regression setup, where a real valued square integrable r.v. Y is to be predicted upon observing a (possibly high dimensional) random vector X by means of a predictive function f(X) as accurately as possible in the mean-squared sense and study a nearest-neighbour-based pointwise estimate of the gradient of the optimal predictive function, the regression function m(x)=E[Ymid X=x]. Under classic smoothness conditions combined with the assumption that the tails of Y-m(X) are sub-Gaussian, we prove nonasymptotic bounds improving upon those obtained for alternative estimation methods. Beyond the novel theoretical results established, several illustrative numerical experiments have been carried out. The latter provide strong empirical evidence that the estimation method proposed works very well for various statistical problems involving gradient estimation, namely dimensionality reduction, stochastic gradient descent optimization and quantifying disentanglement.

We consider the problem of linear estimation, and establish an extension of the Gauss-Markov theorem, in which the bias operator is allowed to be non-zero but bounded with respect to a matrix norm of Schatten type. We derive simple and explicit formulas for the optimal estimator in the cases of Nuclear and Spectral norms (with the Frobenius case recovering ridge regression). Additionally, we analytically derive the generalization error in multiple random matrix ensembles, and compare with Ridge regression. Finally, we conduct an extensive simulation study, in which we show that the cross-validated Nuclear and Spectral regressors can outperform Ridge in several circumstances.

This paper provides a non-asymptotic analysis of linear stochastic approximation (LSA) algorithms with fixed stepsize. This family of methods arises in many machine learning tasks and is used to obtain approximate solutions of a linear system Atheta = b for which A and b can only be accessed through random estimates {({bf A}_n, {bf b}_n): n in N^*}. Our analysis is based on new results regarding moments and high probability bounds for products of matrices which are shown to be tight. We derive high probability bounds on the performance of LSA under weaker conditions on the sequence {({bf A}_n, {bf b}_n): n in N^*} than previous works. However, in contrast, we establish polynomial concentration bounds with order depending on the stepsize. We show that our conclusions cannot be improved without additional assumptions on the sequence of random matrices {{bf A}_n: n in N^*}, and in particular that no Gaussian or exponential high probability bounds can hold. Finally, we pay a particular attention to establishing bounds with sharp order with respect to the number of iterations and the stepsize and whose leading terms contain the covariance matrices appearing in the central limit theorems.

This paper studies Kernel density estimation for a high-dimensional distribution rho(x). Traditional approaches have focused on the limit of large number of data points n and fixed dimension d. We analyze instead the regime where both the number n of data points y_i and their dimensionality d grow with a fixed ratio alpha=(log n)/d. Our study reveals three distinct statistical regimes for the kernel-based estimate of the density hat rho_h^{D}(x)=1{n h^d}sum_{i=1}^n Kleft(x-y_i{h}right), depending on the bandwidth h: a classical regime for large bandwidth where the Central Limit Theorem (CLT) holds, which is akin to the one found in traditional approaches. Below a certain value of the bandwidth, h_{CLT}(alpha), we find that the CLT breaks down. The statistics of hat rho_h^{D}(x) for a fixed x drawn from rho(x) is given by a heavy-tailed distribution (an alpha-stable distribution). In particular below a value h_G(alpha), we find that hat rho_h^{D}(x) is governed by extreme value statistics: only a few points in the database matter and give the dominant contribution to the density estimator. We provide a detailed analysis for high-dimensional multivariate Gaussian data. We show that the optimal bandwidth threshold based on Kullback-Leibler divergence lies in the new statistical regime identified in this paper. Our findings reveal limitations of classical approaches, show the relevance of these new statistical regimes, and offer new insights for Kernel density estimation in high-dimensional settings.

We propose a new approach for propagating stable probability distributions through neural networks. Our method is based on local linearization, which we show to be an optimal approximation in terms of total variation distance for the ReLU non-linearity. This allows propagating Gaussian and Cauchy input uncertainties through neural networks to quantify their output uncertainties. To demonstrate the utility of propagating distributions, we apply the proposed method to predicting calibrated confidence intervals and selective prediction on out-of-distribution data. The results demonstrate a broad applicability of propagating distributions and show the advantages of our method over other approaches such as moment matching.

This paper studies a machine learning regression problem as a multivariate approximation problem using the framework of the theory of random functions. An ab initio derivation of a regression method is proposed, starting from postulates of indifference. It is shown that if a probability measure on an infinite-dimensional function space possesses natural symmetries (invariance under translation, rotation, scaling, and Gaussianity), then the entire solution scheme, including the kernel form, the type of regularization, and the noise parameterization, follows analytically from these postulates. The resulting kernel coincides with a generalized polyharmonic spline; however, unlike existing approaches, it is not chosen empirically but arises as a consequence of the indifference principle. This result provides a theoretical foundation for a broad class of smoothing and interpolation methods, demonstrating their optimality in the absence of a priori information.

Partial differential equations (PDEs) are important tools to model physical systems, and including them into machine learning models is an important way of incorporating physical knowledge. Given any system of linear PDEs with constant coefficients, we propose a family of Gaussian process (GP) priors, which we call EPGP, such that all realizations are exact solutions of this system. We apply the Ehrenpreis-Palamodov fundamental principle, which works like a non-linear Fourier transform, to construct GP kernels mirroring standard spectral methods for GPs. Our approach can infer probable solutions of linear PDE systems from any data such as noisy measurements, or pointwise defined initial and boundary conditions. Constructing EPGP-priors is algorithmic, generally applicable, and comes with a sparse version (S-EPGP) that learns the relevant spectral frequencies and works better for big data sets. We demonstrate our approach on three families of systems of PDE, the heat equation, wave equation, and Maxwell's equations, where we improve upon the state of the art in computation time and precision, in some experiments by several orders of magnitude.

We consider the problem of support recovery for sparse binary signals from noisy linear measurements. For sparse Gaussian measurement matrices we identify sufficient conditions on the minimal sample size for maximum-likelihood recovery in the high-SNR regime ds/p to infty, where p denotes the signal dimension, s the number of non-zero components of the signal, and d the expected number of non-zero components per row of measurement. Combined with known lower bounds, this yields an information-theoretic threshold of order slog(p/s) / log(ds/p), making explicit the price of measurement sparsity. In particular, we highlight a regime where the sample-complexity loss from measurement sparsity is logarithmic while the computational gain is nearly linear. Second, we study recovery after sparsifying an originally dense Gaussian design: the observations are generated from the dense design, while estimation uses an independently sparsified design and a rescaled response. In the proportional regime s=αp, d=ψp, we prove that, for every fixed target error level δ and every slack varepsilon>0, a sample size of order p/ψ^2 is sufficient for support recovery for arbitrarily small ψ.

The Shapley value is a ubiquitous framework for attribution in machine learning, encompassing feature importance, data valuation, and causal inference. However, its exact computation is generally intractable, necessitating efficient approximation methods. While the most effective and popular estimators leverage the paired sampling heuristic to reduce estimation error, the theoretical mechanism driving this improvement has remained opaque. In this work, we provide an elegant and fundamental justification for paired sampling: we prove that the Shapley value depends exclusively on the odd component of the set function, and that paired sampling orthogonalizes the regression objective to filter out the irrelevant even component. Leveraging this insight, we propose OddSHAP, a novel consistent estimator that performs polynomial regression solely on the odd subspace. By utilizing the Fourier basis to isolate this subspace and employing a proxy model to identify high-impact interactions, OddSHAP overcomes the combinatorial explosion of higher-order approximations. Through an extensive benchmark, we find that OddSHAP achieves state-of-the-art estimation accuracy at larger sampling budgets.

We propose amortized moment matching, utilizing neural networks to learn data moments as distributional training signals. By casting diffusion denoisers through polynomial projections, we establish a general framework for moment amortization, revealing that an n-th degree projection explicitly identifies data moments up to order n+1. Derived from the tractable affine case, we instantiate the Amortized Fréchet Distance (AMFD) loss. Unlike FD-loss which relies on explicit marginal moment calculations, AMFD is able to dynamically learn conditional moments via an alternating, matrix-free optimization pipeline that effortlessly scales to high-dimensional data. When operating on global representation features, AMFD serves as a powerful post-training objective; empirically, its neural formulation yields more robust training dynamics than exact statistical matching, substantially surpassing the FD baseline on the FDr^6 metric and achieving superior one-step generation on ImageNet. Furthermore, it unlocks direct exploration within native generative spaces, suggesting that the first two moments can identify target distributions only in spaces with strong semantics. Finally, when scaled to text-to-image generation, the condition-aware nature of AMFD unlocks massive gains in instruction-following capabilities, enabling our one-step models to outperform their multi-step FLUX.2 [klein] 4B teachers on the GenEval benchmark while achieving on-par performance on PickScore. Code and checkpoints are available at https://github.com/poppuppy/amfd.

Using a fully Bayesian approach, Gaussian Process regression is extended to include marginalisation over the kernel choice and kernel hyperparameters. In addition, Bayesian model comparison via the evidence enables direct kernel comparison. The calculation of the joint posterior was implemented with a transdimensional sampler which simultaneously samples over the discrete kernel choice and their hyperparameters by embedding these in a higher-dimensional space, from which samples are taken using nested sampling. Kernel recovery and mean function inference were explored on synthetic data from exoplanet transit light curve simulations. Subsequently, the method was extended to marginalisation over mean functions and noise models and applied to the inference of the present-day Hubble parameter, H_0, from real measurements of the Hubble parameter as a function of redshift, derived from the cosmologically model-independent cosmic chronometer and ΛCDM-dependent baryon acoustic oscillation observations. The inferred H_0 values from the cosmic chronometers, baryon acoustic oscillations and combined datasets are H_0= 66 pm 6, km,s^{-1},Mpc^{-1}, H_0= 67 pm 10, km,s^{-1},Mpc^{-1} and H_0= 69 pm 6, km,s^{-1},Mpc^{-1}, respectively. The kernel posterior of the cosmic chronometers dataset prefers a non-stationary linear kernel. Finally, the datasets are shown to be not in tension with ln R=12.17pm 0.02.

Weather nowcasting is an essential task that involves predicting future radar echo sequences based on current observations, offering significant benefits for disaster management, transportation, and urban planning. Current prediction methods are limited by training and storage efficiency, mainly focusing on 2D spatial predictions at specific altitudes. Meanwhile, 3D volumetric predictions at each timestamp remain largely unexplored. To address such a challenge, we introduce a comprehensive framework for 3D radar sequence prediction in weather nowcasting, using the newly proposed SpatioTemporal Coherent Gaussian Splatting (STC-GS) for dynamic radar representation and GauMamba for efficient and accurate forecasting. Specifically, rather than relying on a 4D Gaussian for dynamic scene reconstruction, STC-GS optimizes 3D scenes at each frame by employing a group of Gaussians while effectively capturing their movements across consecutive frames. It ensures consistent tracking of each Gaussian over time, making it particularly effective for prediction tasks. With the temporally correlated Gaussian groups established, we utilize them to train GauMamba, which integrates a memory mechanism into the Mamba framework. This allows the model to learn the temporal evolution of Gaussian groups while efficiently handling a large volume of Gaussian tokens. As a result, it achieves both efficiency and accuracy in forecasting a wide range of dynamic meteorological radar signals. The experimental results demonstrate that our STC-GS can efficiently represent 3D radar sequences with over 16times higher spatial resolution compared with the existing 3D representation methods, while GauMamba outperforms state-of-the-art methods in forecasting a broad spectrum of high-dynamic weather conditions.

We introduce MOMENT, a family of open-source foundation models for general-purpose time-series analysis. Pre-training large models on time-series data is challenging due to (1) the absence of a large and cohesive public time-series repository, and (2) diverse time-series characteristics which make multi-dataset training onerous. Additionally, (3) experimental benchmarks to evaluate these models, especially in scenarios with limited resources, time, and supervision, are still in their nascent stages. To address these challenges, we compile a large and diverse collection of public time-series, called the Time-series Pile, and systematically tackle time-series-specific challenges to unlock large-scale multi-dataset pre-training. Finally, we build on recent work to design a benchmark to evaluate time-series foundation models on diverse tasks and datasets in limited supervision settings. Experiments on this benchmark demonstrate the effectiveness of our pre-trained models with minimal data and task-specific fine-tuning. Finally, we present several interesting empirical observations about large pre-trained time-series models. Our code is available anonymously at anonymous.4open.science/r/BETT-773F/.

In this paper, we find a sample complexity bound for learning a simplex from noisy samples. Assume a dataset of size n is given which includes i.i.d. samples drawn from a uniform distribution over an unknown simplex in R^K, where samples are assumed to be corrupted by a multi-variate additive Gaussian noise of an arbitrary magnitude. We prove the existence of an algorithm that with high probability outputs a simplex having a ell_2 distance of at most varepsilon from the true simplex (for any varepsilon>0). Also, we theoretically show that in order to achieve this bound, it is sufficient to have ngeleft(K^2/varepsilon^2right)e^{Omegaleft(K/SNR^2right)} samples, where SNR stands for the signal-to-noise ratio. This result solves an important open problem and shows as long as SNRgeOmegaleft(K^{1/2}right), the sample complexity of the noisy regime has the same order to that of the noiseless case. Our proofs are a combination of the so-called sample compression technique in ashtiani2018nearly, mathematical tools from high-dimensional geometry, and Fourier analysis. In particular, we have proposed a general Fourier-based technique for recovery of a more general class of distribution families from additive Gaussian noise, which can be further used in a variety of other related problems.

Gaussian Processes (GPs) are a powerful tool for probabilistic modeling, but their performance is often constrained in complex, largescale real-world domains due to the limited expressivity of classical kernels. Quantum computing offers the potential to overcome this limitation by embedding data into exponentially large Hilbert spaces, capturing complex correlations that remain inaccessible to classical computing approaches. In this paper, we propose a Distributed Quantum Gaussian Process (DQGP) method in a multiagent setting to enhance modeling capabilities and scalability. To address the challenging non-Euclidean optimization problem, we develop a Distributed consensus Riemannian Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers (DR-ADMM) algorithm that aggregates local agent models into a global model. We evaluate the efficacy of our method through numerical experiments conducted on a quantum simulator in classical hardware. We use real-world, non-stationary elevation datasets of NASA's Shuttle Radar Topography Mission and synthetic datasets generated by Quantum Gaussian Processes. Beyond modeling advantages, our framework highlights potential computational speedups that quantum hardware may provide, particularly in Gaussian processes and distributed optimization.

Given sparse observations of buoy velocities, oceanographers are interested in reconstructing ocean currents away from the buoys and identifying divergences in a current vector field. As a first and modular step, we focus on the time-stationary case - for instance, by restricting to short time periods. Since we expect current velocity to be a continuous but highly non-linear function of spatial location, Gaussian processes (GPs) offer an attractive model. But we show that applying a GP with a standard stationary kernel directly to buoy data can struggle at both current reconstruction and divergence identification, due to some physically unrealistic prior assumptions. To better reflect known physical properties of currents, we propose to instead put a standard stationary kernel on the divergence and curl-free components of a vector field obtained through a Helmholtz decomposition. We show that, because this decomposition relates to the original vector field just via mixed partial derivatives, we can still perform inference given the original data with only a small constant multiple of additional computational expense. We illustrate the benefits of our method with theory and experiments on synthetic and real ocean data.

The Helmholtz equation governs time-harmonic wave propagation, and in dissipative media a complex modulus renders its squared wavenumber κ^2 complex. Inferring such fields from sparse, noisy data calls for solvers that also quantify their own uncertainty. Physics-informed Gaussian-process (GP) regression supplies this by returning a posterior over the solution, yet operator-conditioned formulations have been developed almost exclusively for real-valued fields. We extend operator-informed GP regression to complex-valued Helmholtz problems by realifying the complex operator into an equivalent coupled real block, which enables inference with standard real-valued GP conditioning. The construction admits a family of priors, from a proper diagonal prior to coregionalized and multiscale variants, and conditions on PDE residuals and boundary traces. On benchmark problems in one to three dimensions, the solver is competitive with finite-difference and neural-network baselines at a far smaller interior-constraint budget. Unlike those deterministic baselines, it returns a posterior over the complex wavefield rather than a point estimate. Applied to in vivo brain magnetic resonance elastography, a proper multiscale prior reconstructs the shear curl field to a correlation of 0.77 with measurement, above a 0.75 target. The gain arises from the multiscale kernel rather than from real--imaginary coupling. We further identify a low-frequency accuracy ceiling set by model mismatch and a posterior uncertainty that is not yet calibrated. Calibrated uncertainty therefore emerges as the central next step for probabilistic wavefield inference in dissipative media.

While score-based generative models (SGMs) have achieved remarkable success in enormous image generation tasks, their mathematical foundations are still limited. In this paper, we analyze the approximation and generalization of SGMs in learning a family of sub-Gaussian probability distributions. We introduce a notion of complexity for probability distributions in terms of their relative density with respect to the standard Gaussian measure. We prove that if the log-relative density can be locally approximated by a neural network whose parameters can be suitably bounded, then the distribution generated by empirical score matching approximates the target distribution in total variation with a dimension-independent rate. We illustrate our theory through examples, which include certain mixtures of Gaussians. An essential ingredient of our proof is to derive a dimension-free deep neural network approximation rate for the true score function associated with the forward process, which is interesting in its own right.

Bird's-eye view (BEV) perception has gained significant attention because it provides a unified representation to fuse multiple view images and enables a wide range of down-stream autonomous driving tasks, such as forecasting and planning. Recent state-of-the-art models utilize projection-based methods which formulate BEV perception as query learning to bypass explicit depth estimation. While we observe promising advancements in this paradigm, they still fall short of real-world applications because of the lack of uncertainty modeling and expensive computational requirement. In this work, we introduce GaussianLSS, a novel uncertainty-aware BEV perception framework that revisits unprojection-based methods, specifically the Lift-Splat-Shoot (LSS) paradigm, and enhances them with depth un-certainty modeling. GaussianLSS represents spatial dispersion by learning a soft depth mean and computing the variance of the depth distribution, which implicitly captures object extents. We then transform the depth distribution into 3D Gaussians and rasterize them to construct uncertainty-aware BEV features. We evaluate GaussianLSS on the nuScenes dataset, achieving state-of-the-art performance compared to unprojection-based methods. In particular, it provides significant advantages in speed, running 2.5x faster, and in memory efficiency, using 0.3x less memory compared to projection-based methods, while achieving competitive performance with only a 0.4% IoU difference.

We study the problem of model selection in causal inference, specifically for the case of conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation under binary treatments. Unlike model selection in machine learning, there is no perfect analogue of cross-validation as we do not observe the counterfactual potential outcome for any data point. Towards this, there have been a variety of proxy metrics proposed in the literature, that depend on auxiliary nuisance models estimated from the observed data (propensity score model, outcome regression model). However, the effectiveness of these metrics has only been studied on synthetic datasets as we can access the counterfactual data for them. We conduct an extensive empirical analysis to judge the performance of these metrics introduced in the literature, and novel ones introduced in this work, where we utilize the latest advances in generative modeling to incorporate multiple realistic datasets. Our analysis suggests novel model selection strategies based on careful hyperparameter tuning of CATE estimators and causal ensembling.

We introduce a Monte Carlo approach for estimating isolated polynomial zeros through their contour integral representations. For a simple zero enclosed by an isolating contour, we show that the zero can be expressed exactly as the expectation of a complex-valued random variable obtained by uniformly sampling the contour. This yields an unbiased estimator without perturbing the polynomial coefficients. We establish its variance and derive finite sample probabilistic error bounds based on concentration inequalities, with the bounds explicitly reflecting the geometry of the contour and its separation from the zeros. The framework also provides a stochastic formulation of contour based root counting and root isolation. Numerical results illustrate the estimator's behavior under varying polynomial degrees, and we further provide comparisons to existing methods.

This manuscript considers the problem of learning a random Gaussian network function using a fully connected network with frozen intermediate layers and trainable readout layer. This problem can be seen as a natural generalization of the widely studied random features model to deeper architectures. First, we prove Gaussian universality of the test error in a ridge regression setting where the learner and target networks share the same intermediate layers, and provide a sharp asymptotic formula for it. Establishing this result requires proving a deterministic equivalent for traces of the deep random features sample covariance matrices which can be of independent interest. Second, we conjecture the asymptotic Gaussian universality of the test error in the more general setting of arbitrary convex losses and generic learner/target architectures. We provide extensive numerical evidence for this conjecture, which requires the derivation of closed-form expressions for the layer-wise post-activation population covariances. In light of our results, we investigate the interplay between architecture design and implicit regularization.

We study nonlinear filtering with misspecified initial distributions and dynamics, but a correctly specified observation model. Observations are treated as a random process generated by the true model, rather than as fixed realizations, and both the correct filter and the misspecified filter are analyzed under this common observation law. Our main result is a Bayesian total variation balance identity for the expected change in total variation distance under a Bayesian update: a covariance term minus a non-negative remainder. The identity characterizes conditional and averaged update non-expansivity. Combined with prediction contraction, it yields finite-time bounds separating the initialization error from accumulated dynamical discrepancies, while allowing expansive updates. When the averaged updates are non-expansive and a uniform joint prediction--update coefficient is less than one, a persistent dynamical misspecification yields an asymptotic error bound proportional to the one-step discrepancy. When the conditional updates are non-expansive, we characterize an accumulated joint contraction that implies almost-sure and \(L^1\) coalescence of the true and misspecified filters. Finally, we verify update non-expansivity for scalar Gaussian predictive laws under a variance-ordering condition and, separately, derive explicit prediction contraction bounds for truncated kernels and bounded transition functions with elliptically symmetric noise.

The sliced Wasserstein (SW) distances between two probability measures are defined as the expectation of the Wasserstein distance between two one-dimensional projections of the two measures. The randomness comes from a projecting direction that is used to project the two input measures to one dimension. Due to the intractability of the expectation, Monte Carlo integration is performed to estimate the value of the SW distance. Despite having various variants, there has been no prior work that improves the Monte Carlo estimation scheme for the SW distance in terms of controlling its variance. To bridge the literature on variance reduction and the literature on the SW distance, we propose computationally efficient control variates to reduce the variance of the empirical estimation of the SW distance. The key idea is to first find Gaussian approximations of projected one-dimensional measures, then we utilize the closed-form of the Wasserstein-2 distance between two Gaussian distributions to design the control variates. In particular, we propose using a lower bound and an upper bound of the Wasserstein-2 distance between two fitted Gaussians as two computationally efficient control variates. We empirically show that the proposed control variate estimators can help to reduce the variance considerably when comparing measures over images and point-clouds. Finally, we demonstrate the favorable performance of the proposed control variate estimators in gradient flows to interpolate between two point-clouds and in deep generative modeling on standard image datasets, such as CIFAR10 and CelebA.

Longitudinal observational data are often subject to informative missingness. For example, in healthcare research using electronic health records, covariates and outcomes are measured only when patients interact with the healthcare system. Whether these data are observed usually depends on the unobserved variable values themselves, introducing a common form of data missing not at random. We develop identification and estimation methods for the effects of longitudinal modified treatment policies under a self-censoring model which explicitly models this dependence. We consider effects of treatments that can be modified only at measurement times (e.g., interactions with the heathcare system). We study two settings: one in which the observed history suffices for treatment confounding control, and another in which confounder control requires covariate values that were not measured at missed visits. In both settings, we combine longitudinal causal identification with shadow-variable conditional moment restrictions to obtain recursive identification formulas for the counterfactual outcome mean. We derive gradients of the pathwise derivatives and second-order remainder expansions, and use these results to construct estimators that accommodate machine learning for nuisance-function estimation. Under suitable product-rate conditions and cross-fitting, the estimators are asymptotically linear and permit root-n inference, including simultaneous inference across outcome times. We also describe conditional-moment learning and ensemble approaches for estimating the nuisance functions required by our approach, together with a pool-and-smooth strategy that borrows information across sparsely measured outcomes.

Recently, impressive results have been achieved in 3D scene editing with text instructions based on a 2D diffusion model. However, current diffusion models primarily generate images by predicting noise in the latent space, and the editing is usually applied to the whole image, which makes it challenging to perform delicate, especially localized, editing for 3D scenes. Inspired by recent 3D Gaussian splatting, we propose a systematic framework, named GaussianEditor, to edit 3D scenes delicately via 3D Gaussians with text instructions. Benefiting from the explicit property of 3D Gaussians, we design a series of techniques to achieve delicate editing. Specifically, we first extract the region of interest (RoI) corresponding to the text instruction, aligning it to 3D Gaussians. The Gaussian RoI is further used to control the editing process. Our framework can achieve more delicate and precise editing of 3D scenes than previous methods while enjoying much faster training speed, i.e. within 20 minutes on a single V100 GPU, more than twice as fast as Instruct-NeRF2NeRF (45 minutes -- 2 hours).

A variety of infinitely wide neural architectures (e.g., dense NNs, CNNs, and transformers) induce Gaussian process (GP) priors over their outputs. These relationships provide both an accurate characterization of the prior predictive distribution and enable the use of GP machinery to improve the uncertainty quantification of deep neural networks. In this work, we extend this connection to neural operators (NOs), a class of models designed to learn mappings between function spaces. Specifically, we show conditions for when arbitrary-depth NOs with Gaussian-distributed convolution kernels converge to function-valued GPs. Based on this result, we show how to compute the covariance functions of these NO-GPs for two NO parametrizations, including the popular Fourier neural operator (FNO). With this, we compute the posteriors of these GPs in regression scenarios, including PDE solution operators. This work is an important step towards uncovering the inductive biases of current FNO architectures and opens a path to incorporate novel inductive biases for use in kernel-based operator learning methods.

Inducing and leveraging sparse activations during training and inference is a promising avenue for improving the computational efficiency of deep networks, which is increasingly important as network sizes continue to grow and their application becomes more widespread. Here we use the large width Gaussian process limit to analyze the behaviour, at random initialization, of nonlinear activations that induce sparsity in the hidden outputs. A previously unreported form of training instability is proven for arguably two of the most natural candidates for hidden layer sparsification; those being a shifted ReLU (phi(x)=max(0, x-tau) for tauge 0) and soft thresholding (phi(x)=0 for |x|letau and x-sign(x)tau for |x|>tau). We show that this instability is overcome by clipping the nonlinear activation magnitude, at a level prescribed by the shape of the associated Gaussian process variance map. Numerical experiments verify the theory and show that the proposed magnitude clipped sparsifying activations can be trained with training and test fractional sparsity as high as 85\% while retaining close to full accuracy.

Variational inference (VI) seeks to approximate a target distribution pi by an element of a tractable family of distributions. Of key interest in statistics and machine learning is Gaussian VI, which approximates pi by minimizing the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence to pi over the space of Gaussians. In this work, we develop the (Stochastic) Forward-Backward Gaussian Variational Inference (FB-GVI) algorithm to solve Gaussian VI. Our approach exploits the composite structure of the KL divergence, which can be written as the sum of a smooth term (the potential) and a non-smooth term (the entropy) over the Bures-Wasserstein (BW) space of Gaussians endowed with the Wasserstein distance. For our proposed algorithm, we obtain state-of-the-art convergence guarantees when pi is log-smooth and log-concave, as well as the first convergence guarantees to first-order stationary solutions when pi is only log-smooth.

Combining several (sample approximations of) distributions, which we term sub-posteriors, into a single distribution proportional to their product, is a common challenge. Occurring, for instance, in distributed 'big data' problems, or when working under multi-party privacy constraints. Many existing approaches resort to approximating the individual sub-posteriors for practical necessity, then find either an analytical approximation or sample approximation of the resulting (product-pooled) posterior. The quality of the posterior approximation for these approaches is poor when the sub-posteriors fall out-with a narrow range of distributional form, such as being approximately Gaussian. Recently, a Fusion approach has been proposed which finds an exact Monte Carlo approximation of the posterior, circumventing the drawbacks of approximate approaches. Unfortunately, existing Fusion approaches have a number of computational limitations, particularly when unifying a large number of sub-posteriors. In this paper, we generalise the theory underpinning existing Fusion approaches, and embed the resulting methodology within a recursive divide-and-conquer sequential Monte Carlo paradigm. This ultimately leads to a competitive Fusion approach, which is robust to increasing numbers of sub-posteriors.

There has been a recent surge of interest in modeling neural networks (NNs) as Gaussian processes. In the limit of a NN of infinite width the NN becomes equivalent to a Gaussian process. Here we demonstrate that for an ensemble of large, finite, fully connected networks with a single hidden layer the distribution of outputs at initialization is well described by a Gaussian perturbed by the fourth Hermite polynomial for weights drawn from a symmetric distribution. We show that the scale of the perturbation is inversely proportional to the number of units in the NN and that higher order terms decay more rapidly, thereby recovering the Edgeworth expansion. We conclude by observing that understanding how this perturbation changes under training would reveal the regimes in which the Gaussian process framework is valid to model NN behavior.

We study estimation and clustering in Gaussian mixture models under variance misspecification. Observations are generated with true variance σ^2, while the component means are estimated using a likelihood with variance τ^2, yielding a family of mismatched likelihood functions parameterized by the ratio ρ=τ/σ. We show that the interplay between ρ and the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) induces a sharp phase diagram. Under correct specification (ρ=1), maximum likelihood recovers the true means, independently of the SNR. However, once the model is misspecified, two different regimes emerge. Under under-smoothing (ρ<1), the estimated Gaussian means are displaced from the truth, and in low SNR this discrepancy grows as the SNR decreases: for every fixed ρ<1, the squared error scales as SNR^{-1}. Under over-smoothing (ρ>1), the fitted likelihood blurs the cluster separation, causing distinct component means to collapse towards the overall mixture center once ρ^2 exceeds a threshold of the form 1 + λ,SNR, where λ depends on the geometry of the true means. We further show that the hard assignment objective arises as the limit τto 0 of the same mismatched likelihood family, and derive corresponding low- and high-SNR results for hard-assignment mean estimation and latent-label recovery. Furthermore, in low SNR, Bayes-optimal clustering is close to random guessing, and the hard-assignment target remains far from the true means. These results show that in low-SNR applications, even mild variance misspecification or hard-assignment procedures can induce substantial bias, whereas in high SNR these effects are largely absent.

We introduce ensembles within score-based sampling methods to develop gradient-free approximate sampling techniques that leverage the collective dynamics of particle ensembles to compute approximate reverse diffusion drifts. We introduce the underlying methodology, emphasizing its relationship with generative diffusion models and the previously introduced F\"ollmer sampler. We demonstrate the efficacy of ensemble strategies through various examples, ranging from low- to medium-dimensionality sampling problems, including multi-modal and highly non-Gaussian probability distributions, and provide comparisons to traditional methods like NUTS. Our findings highlight the potential of ensemble strategies for modeling complex probability distributions in situations where gradients are unavailable. Finally, we showcase its application in the context of Bayesian inversion problems within the geophysical sciences.

Reliable uncertainty quantification for causal effects is crucial in high-stakes applications, but remains challenging when the target is an entire function rather than a scalar estimand. In this work, we introduce a GP-based approach for uncertainty quantification of interventional functions. The central idea is to build on recent work representing interventional functions as an inner-product of observational functions in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS), by constructing appropriate GP priors for such functions and inferring posteriors from observational data. Our approach yields closed-form posterior moments and tractable training and inference, while avoiding pathologies of previous GP prior constructions for RKHS functions. We further derive a practical procedure for posterior coverage calibration. Across synthetic benchmarks, causal Bayesian optimization tasks, and a large-scale real dataset, our method improves uncertainty quantification while remaining competitive in causal effect estimation.

In this paper, we revisit the problem of sparse linear regression in the local differential privacy (LDP) model. Existing research in the non-interactive and sequentially local models has focused on obtaining the lower bounds for the case where the underlying parameter is 1-sparse, and extending such bounds to the more general k-sparse case has proven to be challenging. Moreover, it is unclear whether efficient non-interactive LDP (NLDP) algorithms exist. To address these issues, we first consider the problem in the epsilon non-interactive LDP model and provide a lower bound of Omega(sqrt{dklog d}{nepsilon}) on the ell_2-norm estimation error for sub-Gaussian data, where n is the sample size and d is the dimension of the space. We propose an innovative NLDP algorithm, the very first of its kind for the problem. As a remarkable outcome, this algorithm also yields a novel and highly efficient estimator as a valuable by-product. Our algorithm achieves an upper bound of O({dsqrt{k}{nepsilon}}) for the estimation error when the data is sub-Gaussian, which can be further improved by a factor of O(d) if the server has additional public but unlabeled data. For the sequentially interactive LDP model, we show a similar lower bound of Omega({sqrt{dk}{nepsilon}}). As for the upper bound, we rectify a previous method and show that it is possible to achieve a bound of O(ksqrt{d}{nepsilon}). Our findings reveal fundamental differences between the non-private case, central DP model, and local DP model in the sparse linear regression problem.

In many practical scenarios the shapes of scatterers exhibit uncertain geometric variations arising from diverse physical or environmental factors. For inverse scattering problems which are inherently ill-posed, the presence of such geometric uncertainties may have a non-negligible impact on the recovery process. With the aim of recovering both obstacle geometry and statistics of the shape uncertainties, in this paper we study an inverse acoustic scattering problem for three-dimensional smooth star-shaped obstacles with random isotropic fluctuations. We propose an efficient Monte Carlo-based multi-frequency recursive linearization algorithm in which the far-field operator is linearized with respect to the geometry parameters and frequency continuation is employed to recover the unknown geometry from coarse to fine scales. Based on the reconstructed samples, we further estimate the reference geometry and key statistics of the shape fluctuation field including Karhunen--Loève eigenvalues, covariance hyper-parameters for Gaussian perturbations and covariance structure, representative marginal distributions for non-Gaussian perturbations. We also prove that the probability law of the far-field data uniquely determines the radial function in distribution which implies uniqueness of the reference shape and related statistics. Numerical experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method in recovering both the scatterer shapes and the associated statistical information under Gaussian and non-Gaussian random variations.

Flow matching has emerged as a powerful generative modeling approach with flexible choices of source distribution. While Gaussian distributions are commonly used, the potential for better alternatives in high-dimensional data generation remains largely unexplored. In this paper, we propose a novel 2D simulation that captures high-dimensional geometric properties in an interpretable 2D setting, enabling us to analyze the learning dynamics of flow matching during training. Based on this analysis, we derive several key insights about flow matching behavior: (1) density approximation can paradoxically degrade performance due to mode discrepancy, (2) directional alignment suffers from path entanglement when overly concentrated, (3) Gaussian's omnidirectional coverage ensures robust learning, and (4) norm misalignment incurs substantial learning costs. Building on these insights, we propose a practical framework that combines norm-aligned training with directionally-pruned sampling. This approach maintains the robust omnidirectional supervision essential for stable flow learning, while eliminating initializations in data-sparse regions during inference. Importantly, our pruning strategy can be applied to any flow matching model trained with a Gaussian source, providing immediate performance gains without the need for retraining. Empirical evaluations demonstrate consistent improvements in both generation quality and sampling efficiency. Our findings provide practical insights and guidelines for source distribution design and introduce a readily applicable technique for improving existing flow matching models. Our code is available at https://github.com/kwanseokk/SourceFM.

In this paper, we present an algorithm for the sparse signal recovery problem that incorporates damped Gaussian generalized approximate message passing (GGAMP) into Expectation-Maximization (EM)-based sparse Bayesian learning (SBL). In particular, GGAMP is used to implement the E-step in SBL in place of matrix inversion, leveraging the fact that GGAMP is guaranteed to converge with appropriate damping. The resulting GGAMP-SBL algorithm is much more robust to arbitrary measurement matrix A than the standard damped GAMP algorithm while being much lower complexity than the standard SBL algorithm. We then extend the approach from the single measurement vector (SMV) case to the temporally correlated multiple measurement vector (MMV) case, leading to the GGAMP-TSBL algorithm. We verify the robustness and computational advantages of the proposed algorithms through numerical experiments.

3D Gaussian splatting (3DGS) has shown promising results in image rendering and surface reconstruction. However, its potential in volumetric reconstruction tasks, such as X-ray computed tomography, remains under-explored. This paper introduces R^2-Gaussian, the first 3DGS-based framework for sparse-view tomographic reconstruction. By carefully deriving X-ray rasterization functions, we discover a previously unknown integration bias in the standard 3DGS formulation, which hampers accurate volume retrieval. To address this issue, we propose a novel rectification technique via refactoring the projection from 3D to 2D Gaussians. Our new method presents three key innovations: (1) introducing tailored Gaussian kernels, (2) extending rasterization to X-ray imaging, and (3) developing a CUDA-based differentiable voxelizer. Experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that our method outperforms state-of-the-art approaches in accuracy and efficiency. Crucially, it delivers high-quality results in 4 minutes, which is 12times faster than NeRF-based methods and on par with traditional algorithms. Code and models are available on the project page https://github.com/Ruyi-Zha/r2_gaussian.

Bayesian neural networks (BNN) and deep ensembles are principled approaches to estimate the predictive uncertainty of a deep learning model. However their practicality in real-time, industrial-scale applications are limited due to their heavy memory and inference cost. This motivates us to study principled approaches to high-quality uncertainty estimation that require only a single deep neural network (DNN). By formalizing the uncertainty quantification as a minimax learning problem, we first identify input distance awareness, i.e., the model's ability to quantify the distance of a testing example from the training data in the input space, as a necessary condition for a DNN to achieve high-quality (i.e., minimax optimal) uncertainty estimation. We then propose Spectral-normalized Neural Gaussian Process (SNGP), a simple method that improves the distance-awareness ability of modern DNNs, by adding a weight normalization step during training and replacing the output layer with a Gaussian process. On a suite of vision and language understanding tasks and on modern architectures (Wide-ResNet and BERT), SNGP is competitive with deep ensembles in prediction, calibration and out-of-domain detection, and outperforms the other single-model approaches.

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) have recently gained significant attention due to their strong zero-shot capabilities and widespread real-world applications. Such models typically require a computationally costly pretraining on large-scale, carefully curated collections of real-world sequences. To allow for a sample-efficient pretraining of TSFMs, we propose CauKer, a novel algorithm designed to generate diverse, causally coherent synthetic time series with realistic trends, seasonality, and nonlinear interactions. CauKer combines Gaussian Process (GP) kernel composition with Structural Causal Models (SCM) to produce data for sample-efficient pretraining of state-of-the-art classification TSFMs having different architectures and following different pretraining approaches. Additionally, our experiments reveal that CauKer-generated datasets exhibit clear scaling laws for both dataset size (10K to 10M samples) and model capacity (1M to 783M parameters), unlike real-world datasets, which display irregular scaling behavior.

Recently, 3D Gaussian splatting (3D-GS) has achieved great success in reconstructing and rendering real-world scenes. To transfer the high rendering quality to generation tasks, a series of research works attempt to generate 3D-Gaussian assets from text. However, the generated assets have not achieved the same quality as those in reconstruction tasks. We observe that Gaussians tend to grow without control as the generation process may cause indeterminacy. Aiming at highly enhancing the generation quality, we propose a novel framework named GaussianDreamerPro. The main idea is to bind Gaussians to reasonable geometry, which evolves over the whole generation process. Along different stages of our framework, both the geometry and appearance can be enriched progressively. The final output asset is constructed with 3D Gaussians bound to mesh, which shows significantly enhanced details and quality compared with previous methods. Notably, the generated asset can also be seamlessly integrated into downstream manipulation pipelines, e.g. animation, composition, and simulation etc., greatly promoting its potential in wide applications. Demos are available at https://taoranyi.com/gaussiandreamerpro/.

Recent years have seen significant advancements in foundation models through generative pre-training, yet algorithmic innovation in this space has largely stagnated around autoregressive models for discrete signals and diffusion models for continuous signals. This stagnation creates a bottleneck that prevents us from fully unlocking the potential of rich multi-modal data, which in turn limits the progress on multimodal intelligence. We argue that an inference-first perspective, which prioritizes scaling efficiency during inference time across sequence length and refinement steps, can inspire novel generative pre-training algorithms. Using Inductive Moment Matching (IMM) as a concrete example, we demonstrate how addressing limitations in diffusion models' inference process through targeted modifications yields a stable, single-stage algorithm that achieves superior sample quality with over an order of magnitude greater inference efficiency.

This work derives methods for performing nonparametric, nonasymptotic statistical inference for population means under the constraint of local differential privacy (LDP). Given bounded observations (X_1, dots, X_n) with mean mu^star that are privatized into (Z_1, dots, Z_n), we present confidence intervals (CI) and time-uniform confidence sequences (CS) for mu^star when only given access to the privatized data. To achieve this, we introduce a nonparametric and sequentially interactive generalization of Warner's famous ``randomized response'' mechanism, satisfying LDP for arbitrary bounded random variables, and then provide CIs and CSs for their means given access to the resulting privatized observations. For example, our results yield private analogues of Hoeffding's inequality in both fixed-time and time-uniform regimes. We extend these Hoeffding-type CSs to capture time-varying (non-stationary) means, and conclude by illustrating how these methods can be used to conduct private online A/B tests.

Diffusion models and Flow Matching generate high-quality samples but are slow at inference, and distilling them into few-step models often leads to instability and extensive tuning. To resolve these trade-offs, we propose Inductive Moment Matching (IMM), a new class of generative models for one- or few-step sampling with a single-stage training procedure. Unlike distillation, IMM does not require pre-training initialization and optimization of two networks; and unlike Consistency Models, IMM guarantees distribution-level convergence and remains stable under various hyperparameters and standard model architectures. IMM surpasses diffusion models on ImageNet-256x256 with 1.99 FID using only 8 inference steps and achieves state-of-the-art 2-step FID of 1.98 on CIFAR-10 for a model trained from scratch.